Current estimates of the impact of an influenza pandemic vary. Reasonable
planning assumptions include:
If avian influenza adapts fully to humans, the disease will spread worldwide in
a few weeks
The pandemic will circle the globe in 2-3 waves, recurring after 4-6 months
25% of the population will become ill in the first wave, decreasing in
subsequent waves
Creating a peak absentee rate between 30-50% (about 20% are ill at
the same time, and the remainder are absent due to care giving and other
personal reasons)
A fatality rate of 3-5% of those who are ill, resulting in about 1% mortality
across the entire population
Most commercial flights will be grounded during the first wave
Although restricting cross-border travel (car, train, bus, air) for a period may not
be particularly effective at preventing the spread of a pandemic virus it should be
assumed for planning purposes that restrictions will be introduced
Cargo transport will be restricted to land and sea, except for critical supplies
(e.g. vaccines)
Cargo transport of certain goods (e.g. food) will be restricted or forbidden
Given the highly infectious nature of pandemic viruses, existing healthcare
systems and infrastructure will be overwhelmed
Vaccines against the exact pandemic strain will not be available until
4 ? 6 months after the first wave arrives
In the next 1 ? 2 years, most governments will not have sufficient stockpiles of
antiviral agents to treat those infected.
