tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
BMJ Open. 2015 Dec 30;5(12):e009900. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009900.
[h=1]Influenza newspaper reports and the influenza epidemic: an observational study in Fukuoka City, Japan.[/h] Hagihara A[SUP]1[/SUP], Onozuka D[SUP]1[/SUP], Miyazaki S[SUP]2[/SUP], Abe T[SUP]3[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]OBJECTIVES:[/h] We examined whether the weekly number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza was related to the incidence of influenza in a large city.
[h=4]DESIGN:[/h] Prospective, non-randomised, observational study.
[h=4]SETTING:[/h] Registry data of influenza cases in Fukuoka City, Japan.
[h=4]PARTICIPANTS:[/h] A total of 83 613 cases of influenza cases that occurred between October 1999 and March 2007 in Fukuoka City, Japan.
[h=4]MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE:[/h] A linear model with autoregressive time series errors was fitted to time series data on the incidence of influenza and the accumulated number of influenza-related newspaper articles with different time lags in Fukuoka City, Japan. In order to obtain further evidence that the number of newspaper articles a week with specific time lags is related to the incidence of influenza, Granger causality was also tested.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Of the 16 models including 'number of newspaper articles' with different time lags between 2 and 17 weeks (xt-2 to t-17), the β coefficients of 'number of newspaper articles' at time lags between t-5 and t-13 were significant. However, the β coefficients of 'number of newspaper articles' that are significant with respect to the Granger causality tests (p<0.05) were the weekly number of newspaper articles at time lags between t-6 and t-10 (time shift of 10 weeks, β=-0.301, p<0.01; time shift of 9 weeks, β=-0.200, p<0.01; time shift of 8 weeks, β=-0.156, p<0.01; time shift of 7 weeks, β=-0.122, p<0.05; time shift of 6 weeks, β=-0.113, p<0.05).
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] We found that the number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza in a week was related to the incidence of influenza 6-10 weeks after media coverage in a large city in Japan.
Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] EPIDEMIOLOGY
PMID: 26719323 [PubMed - in process] Free full text
[h=1]Influenza newspaper reports and the influenza epidemic: an observational study in Fukuoka City, Japan.[/h] Hagihara A[SUP]1[/SUP], Onozuka D[SUP]1[/SUP], Miyazaki S[SUP]2[/SUP], Abe T[SUP]3[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]OBJECTIVES:[/h] We examined whether the weekly number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza was related to the incidence of influenza in a large city.
[h=4]DESIGN:[/h] Prospective, non-randomised, observational study.
[h=4]SETTING:[/h] Registry data of influenza cases in Fukuoka City, Japan.
[h=4]PARTICIPANTS:[/h] A total of 83 613 cases of influenza cases that occurred between October 1999 and March 2007 in Fukuoka City, Japan.
[h=4]MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE:[/h] A linear model with autoregressive time series errors was fitted to time series data on the incidence of influenza and the accumulated number of influenza-related newspaper articles with different time lags in Fukuoka City, Japan. In order to obtain further evidence that the number of newspaper articles a week with specific time lags is related to the incidence of influenza, Granger causality was also tested.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Of the 16 models including 'number of newspaper articles' with different time lags between 2 and 17 weeks (xt-2 to t-17), the β coefficients of 'number of newspaper articles' at time lags between t-5 and t-13 were significant. However, the β coefficients of 'number of newspaper articles' that are significant with respect to the Granger causality tests (p<0.05) were the weekly number of newspaper articles at time lags between t-6 and t-10 (time shift of 10 weeks, β=-0.301, p<0.01; time shift of 9 weeks, β=-0.200, p<0.01; time shift of 8 weeks, β=-0.156, p<0.01; time shift of 7 weeks, β=-0.122, p<0.05; time shift of 6 weeks, β=-0.113, p<0.05).
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] We found that the number of newspaper articles reporting on influenza in a week was related to the incidence of influenza 6-10 weeks after media coverage in a large city in Japan.
Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] EPIDEMIOLOGY
PMID: 26719323 [PubMed - in process] Free full text