tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
BMJ Open. 2016 Sep 29;6(9):e011699. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011699.
[h=1]Effect of modelling slum populations on influenza spread in Delhi.[/h] Chen J[SUP]1[/SUP], Chu S[SUP]1[/SUP], Chungbaek Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Khan M[SUP]1[/SUP], Kuhlman C[SUP]1[/SUP], Marathe A[SUP]1[/SUP], Mortveit H[SUP]1[/SUP], Vullikanti A[SUP]1[/SUP], Xie D[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]OBJECTIVES:[/h] This research studies the impact of influenza epidemic in the slum and non-slum areas of Delhi, the National Capital Territory of India, by taking proper account of slum demographics and residents' activities, using a highly resolved social contact network of the 13.8 million residents of Delhi.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] An SEIR model is used to simulate the spread of influenza on two different synthetic social contact networks of Delhi, one where slums and non-slums are treated the same in terms of their demographics and daily sets of activities and the other, where slum and non-slum regions have different attributes.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Differences between the epidemic outcomes on the two networks are large. Time-to-peak infection is overestimated by several weeks, and the cumulative infection rate and peak infection rate are underestimated by 10-50%, when slum attributes are ignored.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] Slum populations have a significant effect on influenza transmission in urban areas. Improper specification of slums in large urban regions results in underestimation of infections in the entire population and hence will lead to misguided interventions by policy planners.
Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] INFECTIOUS DISEASES
PMID: 27687898 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011699
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher] Free full text
[h=1]Effect of modelling slum populations on influenza spread in Delhi.[/h] Chen J[SUP]1[/SUP], Chu S[SUP]1[/SUP], Chungbaek Y[SUP]1[/SUP], Khan M[SUP]1[/SUP], Kuhlman C[SUP]1[/SUP], Marathe A[SUP]1[/SUP], Mortveit H[SUP]1[/SUP], Vullikanti A[SUP]1[/SUP], Xie D[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] [h=4]OBJECTIVES:[/h] This research studies the impact of influenza epidemic in the slum and non-slum areas of Delhi, the National Capital Territory of India, by taking proper account of slum demographics and residents' activities, using a highly resolved social contact network of the 13.8 million residents of Delhi.
[h=4]METHODS:[/h] An SEIR model is used to simulate the spread of influenza on two different synthetic social contact networks of Delhi, one where slums and non-slums are treated the same in terms of their demographics and daily sets of activities and the other, where slum and non-slum regions have different attributes.
[h=4]RESULTS:[/h] Differences between the epidemic outcomes on the two networks are large. Time-to-peak infection is overestimated by several weeks, and the cumulative infection rate and peak infection rate are underestimated by 10-50%, when slum attributes are ignored.
[h=4]CONCLUSIONS:[/h] Slum populations have a significant effect on influenza transmission in urban areas. Improper specification of slums in large urban regions results in underestimation of infections in the entire population and hence will lead to misguided interventions by policy planners.
Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] INFECTIOUS DISEASES
PMID: 27687898 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011699
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher] Free full text