tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
BMC Public Health
. 2025 Apr 18;25(1):1456.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-22110-x. Time series analysis of the impact of air pollutants on influenza-like illness in Changchun, China
Yang Pan[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Laishun Yao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Biao Huang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yinghua He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Changxi Xu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xianda Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yingying Ma[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhidi Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xingyu Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hong Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Man Wang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Lijun Song[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xiao Liu[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Guiping Yu[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Lin Ye[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Liting Zhou[SUP] 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Background: Emerging evidence links air pollution to respiratory infections, yet systematic assessments in cold regions remain limited. This study evaluates the short-term effects of six major air pollutants on influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence in Changchun, Northeast China, with implications for air quality management and respiratory disease prevention.
Methods: ILI surveillance data from Changchun were extracted from "China Influenza Surveillance Network" and the ambient air quality monitoring data of the city were collected from 2017 to 2022. A generalized additive model (GAM) with quasi-Poisson regression analysis was employed to quantify pollutant-ILI associations, adjusting for meteorological factors and temporal trends.
Results: Among 84,010 ILI cases, immediate exposure effects were observed: each 10 µg/m³ increase in PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB] (ER = 1.00%, 95% CI: 0.63-1.37%), PM[SUB]10[/SUB] (0.90%, 0.57-1.24%), and O[SUB]3[/SUB] (1.05%, 0.44-1.67%) significantly elevated ILI risks. Young and middle-aged individuals (25-59 years old) exhibited the highest susceptibility to five pollutants (PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB], PM[SUB]10[/SUB], SO[SUB]2[/SUB], O[SUB]3[/SUB], and CO), and age subgroups under 15 years old exhibited susceptibility to NO[SUB]2[/SUB]. Post-COVID-19 outbreak showed amplified effects across all pollutants (p < 0.05 vs. pre-outbreak). The effects of PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB], PM[SUB]10[/SUB], SO[SUB]2[/SUB] and O[SUB]3[/SUB] on ILI cases were greater in the cold season (October to March) (p < 0.05).
Conclusions: PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB], PM[SUB]10[/SUB], and O[SUB]3[/SUB] exposure significantly increases ILI risks in Changchun, particularly among young/middle-aged populations during cold seasons and post-pandemic periods. These findings underscore the urgency for real-time air quality alerts and targeted protection strategies during high-risk periods to mitigate respiratory health burdens.
Keywords: Air pollutants; Generalized additive model; Infectious disease; Influenza-like illness.
. 2025 Apr 18;25(1):1456.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-22110-x. Time series analysis of the impact of air pollutants on influenza-like illness in Changchun, China
Yang Pan[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Laishun Yao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Biao Huang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yinghua He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Changxi Xu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xianda Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yingying Ma[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhidi Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xingyu Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hong Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Man Wang[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Lijun Song[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xiao Liu[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Guiping Yu[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Lin Ye[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Liting Zhou[SUP] 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 40251555
- DOI: 10.1186/s12889-025-22110-x
Background: Emerging evidence links air pollution to respiratory infections, yet systematic assessments in cold regions remain limited. This study evaluates the short-term effects of six major air pollutants on influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence in Changchun, Northeast China, with implications for air quality management and respiratory disease prevention.
Methods: ILI surveillance data from Changchun were extracted from "China Influenza Surveillance Network" and the ambient air quality monitoring data of the city were collected from 2017 to 2022. A generalized additive model (GAM) with quasi-Poisson regression analysis was employed to quantify pollutant-ILI associations, adjusting for meteorological factors and temporal trends.
Results: Among 84,010 ILI cases, immediate exposure effects were observed: each 10 µg/m³ increase in PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB] (ER = 1.00%, 95% CI: 0.63-1.37%), PM[SUB]10[/SUB] (0.90%, 0.57-1.24%), and O[SUB]3[/SUB] (1.05%, 0.44-1.67%) significantly elevated ILI risks. Young and middle-aged individuals (25-59 years old) exhibited the highest susceptibility to five pollutants (PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB], PM[SUB]10[/SUB], SO[SUB]2[/SUB], O[SUB]3[/SUB], and CO), and age subgroups under 15 years old exhibited susceptibility to NO[SUB]2[/SUB]. Post-COVID-19 outbreak showed amplified effects across all pollutants (p < 0.05 vs. pre-outbreak). The effects of PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB], PM[SUB]10[/SUB], SO[SUB]2[/SUB] and O[SUB]3[/SUB] on ILI cases were greater in the cold season (October to March) (p < 0.05).
Conclusions: PM[SUB]2.5[/SUB], PM[SUB]10[/SUB], and O[SUB]3[/SUB] exposure significantly increases ILI risks in Changchun, particularly among young/middle-aged populations during cold seasons and post-pandemic periods. These findings underscore the urgency for real-time air quality alerts and targeted protection strategies during high-risk periods to mitigate respiratory health burdens.
Keywords: Air pollutants; Generalized additive model; Infectious disease; Influenza-like illness.