tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
BMC Public Health
. 2022 Jul 19;22(1):1379.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13745-1.
Results of the Cologne Corona surveillance (CoCoS) study - a prospective population-based cohort study: incidence data and potential underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 adult infections by health authorities
Max Oberste[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lynn-Marie Pusch[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rebecca Roth[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kija Shah-Hosseini[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jana Schmitz[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Eva Heger[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Felix Dewald[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Claudia Müller[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Luise Stach von Goltzheim[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Clara Lehmann[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Michael Buess[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Anna Wolff[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Gerd Fätkenheuer[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Gerhard Wiesmüller[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Florian Klein[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Kerstin Daniela Rosenberger[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Florian Neuhann[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 4 5 6 [/SUP], Martin Hellmich[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: Current incidence estimates of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany rely to a large extent on case notifications. However, the large number of mild or asymptomatic infections is likely to result in underestimation. Population-based studies can provide valid estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 incidence and thus support health authorities to monitor the epidemiological situation and to initiate, maintain, strengthen or relax effective countermeasures.
Methods: This study was conducted in Cologne, Germany. Six-thousand randomly drawn Cologne residents, 18 years of age or older, were contacted by mail in March 2021. Study envelopes contained a kit for self-administered saliva sample and access details to a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics, previous positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR and completed COVID-19 vaccinations. Participants were again invited for a second round in June 2021, while those who declined participation were replaced by additional randomly drawn Cologne residents in order to reach a total of 6000 potential participants again. The saliva samples were sent to the laboratory by mail and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR. The incidence estimates were adjusted for sensitivity and specificity of the test procedure and compared with the official numbers of new SARS-CoV-2 cases in the adult Cologne population.
Results: The first surveillance round in March 2021 (response rate: 34.08%, N = 2045) showed a SARS-CoV-2 seven-day incidence of 85 cases per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 9 to 319). In the same period, the officially registered cases were 125 per 100,000. The second surveillance round in June 2021 (response rate: 36.53%, N = 2192) showed a seven-day incidence of 27 per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 1 to 142), while the official figures for newly registered SARS-CoV-2 cases in the same period were 15 per 100,000.
Conclusions: The incidence estimates do not indicate relevant underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 infections based on case notification. Regular use of the surveillance method developed here may nevertheless complement the efforts of the health authorities to assess the epidemiological situation.
Trial registration: DRKS.de, German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), Identifier: DRKS00024046 , Registered on 25 February 2021.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Incidence; Pandemic; Surveillance; Underestimation.
. 2022 Jul 19;22(1):1379.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13745-1.
Results of the Cologne Corona surveillance (CoCoS) study - a prospective population-based cohort study: incidence data and potential underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 adult infections by health authorities
Max Oberste[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lynn-Marie Pusch[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Rebecca Roth[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kija Shah-Hosseini[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jana Schmitz[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Eva Heger[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Felix Dewald[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Claudia Müller[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Luise Stach von Goltzheim[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Clara Lehmann[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Michael Buess[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Anna Wolff[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Gerd Fätkenheuer[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Gerhard Wiesmüller[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Florian Klein[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Kerstin Daniela Rosenberger[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Florian Neuhann[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 4 5 6 [/SUP], Martin Hellmich[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35854283
- DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13745-1
Abstract
Background: Current incidence estimates of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany rely to a large extent on case notifications. However, the large number of mild or asymptomatic infections is likely to result in underestimation. Population-based studies can provide valid estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 incidence and thus support health authorities to monitor the epidemiological situation and to initiate, maintain, strengthen or relax effective countermeasures.
Methods: This study was conducted in Cologne, Germany. Six-thousand randomly drawn Cologne residents, 18 years of age or older, were contacted by mail in March 2021. Study envelopes contained a kit for self-administered saliva sample and access details to a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics, previous positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR and completed COVID-19 vaccinations. Participants were again invited for a second round in June 2021, while those who declined participation were replaced by additional randomly drawn Cologne residents in order to reach a total of 6000 potential participants again. The saliva samples were sent to the laboratory by mail and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR. The incidence estimates were adjusted for sensitivity and specificity of the test procedure and compared with the official numbers of new SARS-CoV-2 cases in the adult Cologne population.
Results: The first surveillance round in March 2021 (response rate: 34.08%, N = 2045) showed a SARS-CoV-2 seven-day incidence of 85 cases per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 9 to 319). In the same period, the officially registered cases were 125 per 100,000. The second surveillance round in June 2021 (response rate: 36.53%, N = 2192) showed a seven-day incidence of 27 per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 1 to 142), while the official figures for newly registered SARS-CoV-2 cases in the same period were 15 per 100,000.
Conclusions: The incidence estimates do not indicate relevant underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 infections based on case notification. Regular use of the surveillance method developed here may nevertheless complement the efforts of the health authorities to assess the epidemiological situation.
Trial registration: DRKS.de, German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), Identifier: DRKS00024046 , Registered on 25 February 2021.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Incidence; Pandemic; Surveillance; Underestimation.