tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
BMC Public Health
. 2022 Nov 17;22(1):2098.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-14576-w.
Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea
Sung-Mok Jung[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Kyungmin Huh[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Munkhzul Radnaabaatar[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jaehun Jung[SUP] 5 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis.
Methods: A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
Results: Our projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022.
Conclusions: Our model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled.
Keywords: COVID-19; Exit strategy; Mathematical modelling; Projections; The Republic of Korea.
. 2022 Nov 17;22(1):2098.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-14576-w.
Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea
Sung-Mok Jung[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Kyungmin Huh[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Munkhzul Radnaabaatar[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jaehun Jung[SUP] 5 6 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 36384532
- DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-14576-w
Abstract
Background: With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis.
Methods: A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
Results: Our projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022.
Conclusions: Our model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled.
Keywords: COVID-19; Exit strategy; Mathematical modelling; Projections; The Republic of Korea.