tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
BMC Infect Dis
. 2020 Dec 17;20(1):960.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05561-y.
Novel risk scoring system for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China
Mengyuan Liang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Miao He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jian Tang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xinliang He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhijun Liu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Siwei Feng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ping Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hui Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yu'e Xue[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tao Bai[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yanling Ma[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jianchu Zhang[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The mortality rate from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is high among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hence, risk evaluation tools are required to immediately identify high-risk patients upon admission for early intervention.
Methods: A cohort of 220 consecutive patients with COVID-19 were included in this study. To analyze the risk factors of ARDS, data obtained from approximately 70% of the participants were randomly selected and used as training dataset to establish a logistic regression model. Meanwhile, data obtained from the remaining 30% of the participants were used as test dataset to validate the effect of the model.
Results: Lactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen, D-dimer, procalcitonin, and ferritin levels were included in the risk score system and were assigned a score of 25, 15, 34, 20, and 24, respectively. The cutoff value for the total score was > 35, with a sensitivity of 100.00% and specificity of 81.20%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were 0.967 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.925-0.989) and 0.437(P Value = 0.437). The model had excellent discrimination and calibration during internal validation.
Conclusions: The novel risk score may be a valuable risk evaluation tool for screening patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of ARDS.
Keywords: ARDS; COVID-19; Risk score.
. 2020 Dec 17;20(1):960.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05561-y.
Novel risk scoring system for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China
Mengyuan Liang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Miao He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jian Tang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xinliang He[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhijun Liu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Siwei Feng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ping Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Hui Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yu'e Xue[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tao Bai[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yanling Ma[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Jianchu Zhang[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33334314
- DOI: 10.1186/s12879-020-05561-y
Abstract
Background: The mortality rate from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is high among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hence, risk evaluation tools are required to immediately identify high-risk patients upon admission for early intervention.
Methods: A cohort of 220 consecutive patients with COVID-19 were included in this study. To analyze the risk factors of ARDS, data obtained from approximately 70% of the participants were randomly selected and used as training dataset to establish a logistic regression model. Meanwhile, data obtained from the remaining 30% of the participants were used as test dataset to validate the effect of the model.
Results: Lactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen, D-dimer, procalcitonin, and ferritin levels were included in the risk score system and were assigned a score of 25, 15, 34, 20, and 24, respectively. The cutoff value for the total score was > 35, with a sensitivity of 100.00% and specificity of 81.20%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were 0.967 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.925-0.989) and 0.437(P Value = 0.437). The model had excellent discrimination and calibration during internal validation.
Conclusions: The novel risk score may be a valuable risk evaluation tool for screening patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of ARDS.
Keywords: ARDS; COVID-19; Risk score.