Bird flu pandemic could cost 2 trln usd - World Bank

[sharon sanders]

AFX News Limited
Bird flu pandemic could cost 2 trln usd - World Bank
12.04.07, 5:05 AM ET


NEW DELHI (Thomson Financial) - The global cost of a possible bird flu pandemic could be up to 2 trln usd, a top World Bank official said.
The risk of a pandemic was still as great as it was two years ago despite improvements in the capacity of many countries to respond to the infection, a joint report by the United Nations and World Bank warned last week.

'The global economic costs could be between 1.5 to 2 trln usd,' Peter Harrold, acting Vice President of the World Bank told an international conference on avian flu in New Delhi.
International donors had pledged 2.3 bln usd to help countries combat the threat, and more than 1 bln usd had been allocated to other groups involved in the fight, Harrold said.
More than 600 delegates from 105 countries are in New Delhi to discuss preparedness and challenges in fighting avian flu at the three-day conference, which began Saturday.
Experts fear a virus mutation that could result in severe and easily transmitted influenza in humans could create the next pandemic, with far-reaching consequences.
'About 20 pct of the global population will be affected during the next pandemic,' Margaret Chan, director general of the World Health Organisation, told the gathering.
Chan said 28 mln people may need medical care over a relatively short period and worker absenteeism could reach 35 pct of the work force.
But experts said considerable progress had been made in preparing for a pandemic.
'Ninety-five percent of the countries report that they have developed pandemic preparedness plans,' said David Nabarro, UN Systems Co-ordinator for Avian Influenza and one of the authors of the UN-World Bank report.

However the response was still 'patchy,' and 'entrenched' infection in some countries continued to pose a major threat to human health, Nabarro said.
The H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed more than 200 people worldwide since late 2003.
tf.TFN-Europe_newsdesk@thomson.com



http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/12/04/afx4401304.html


report for reference:


RESPONSES TO AVIAN INFLUENZA
AND STATE OF PANDEMIC READINESS
THIRD GLOBAL PROGRESS REPORT
DECEMBER 2007


"...Whilst there has been an increase in the number of countries reporting that they are planning for pandemic influenza, the preparations pay insufficient attention both to operational readiness at the local level and to cooperation on pandemic preparedness between neighboring countries. Only a small proportion of preparedness plans focuses on sectors other than health...."


http://interaction.org/files.cgi/607...s_Dec_2007.pdf

 

[youngman]

Re: Bird flu pandemic could cost 2 trln usd - World Bank

My question is what will happen if the bird flu pandemic just stays with the bird population. Trillions of birds will be killed and how will that effect our economies. Chickens and ducks we eat.....but there will be other losses in the wild birds. What I believe is that in places like India, Vietnam, and China where poultry is a big part of their diet, there will be a rush for other meats, but they will soon be depleted. Then I see starvation happening. They are on the verge today without the bird flu, but if it were to deplete their protein food sources I could see more people dying of starvation if the Pandemic does not mutate to humans. There currently is a shortage of grains today without the bird flu pandemic. IMHO

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Bird flu pandemic could cost 2 trln usd - World Bank

Welcome Youngman. Yes the economic effects of bird flu in poultry populations, alone, is devastating to that regional economy in terms of money, lost productivity, and human suffering. Poultry is a relatively inexpensive source of protein, compared to beef for instance, for billions of people. Chickens take up less physical space than goats or cows and they provide eggs. Starvation is a real possibility in areas that do not have alternative sources of food, both animal and vegetable.

 

[gsgs]

Re: Bird flu pandemic could cost 2 trln usd - World Bank

13 billion chickens in China, assume one costs $5 gives $65B

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Bird flu pandemic could cost 2 trln usd - World Bank

Welcome to FluTrackers, Youngman. Wide spread Avian Influenza will definitely have an impact on countries like China that rely on poultry. But dietary preferences in Chain are changing, even without the effect of bird flu, and those changes will have negative consequences.

A Thirst for Meat: Changes in diet, rising population may strain China's water supply

Sid Perkins


China's rapid industrialization and increasing population, along with a growing dietary preference among its citizens for meat, are straining the country's water resources to the point where food imports will probably be needed to meet demand in coming decades.

Economic growth in China is brisk: Over the past 2 decades, the country's gross domestic product has risen, on average, about 8 percent per year. That's the highest rate of development in recent world history, says Junguo Liu, an environmental scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology in D?bendorf. Accompanying that growth has been a jump in urbanization and per capita income, both of which have contributed to significant changes in the Chinese diet.
Chinese consumption of staples such as corn, rice, and wheat has changed little in recent years, even dropping somewhat in the last decade, data suggest. However, consumption of more water-intensive fruits and vegetables, now the largest part of the average Chinese diet, has more than quadrupled since the early 1960s. A more significant strain on water resources, says Liu, is the dramatic rise in meat consumption. Since 1980, the Chinese yen for meat has nearly quadrupled, he notes. . .

More at: http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20080119/fob4.asp

 

[youngman]

Re: Bird flu pandemic could cost 2 trln usd - World Bank

all these countries we are watching are not the richest in the world....they all have high levels of poverty...even starvation. China already imports soybeans, corn, and rice from the US and we know what is happening with those prices as the ethonal surge happens. I see a lack of food as a bigger problem if the bird flu does not mutate....if it does mutate to humans...you can't eat anyway. So not only are they losing a cheap form of protein, and in India they do not eat cattle, they will try to replace it with grains or other meats that are currently in high demand....Starvation might kill more people than the potential mutated bird flu....IMHO