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Bird flu outbreaks might involve duck meat

hawkeye

Well-known member
I'll withhold comment.

Bird flu outbreaks might involve duck meat

Published: Oct. 25, 2007 at 3:27 PM
LIVERPOOL, England, Oct. 25 (UPI) -- British scientists have determined a major avian influenza outbreak would most likely involve the United Kingdom's duck meat industry.

The University of Liverpool study also determined 73 percent of avian flu outbreaks in the United Kingdom probably wouldn't spread beyond initially infected farms.

The university’s veterinary science and mathematics departments were asked by Britain's Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs to produce an Asian strain avian flu model based on unique levels of detail, including contact points between farms.

The study showed the most vulnerable areas were East Anglia, Lincolnshire and South Yorkshire -- largely due to the number of duck meat companies in these regions. The researchers said they believe duck meat was more likely to cause large outbreaks of avian flu because ducks often don't show signs of the disease and therefore delay diagnosis and control of the infection.

The scientists used a computer model to simulate millions of outbreaks of avian flu to better understand how the disease might spread across the United Kingdom.

The results of that research are detailed in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, series B.
 
Re: Bird flu outbreaks might involve duck meat

Epidemiological consequences of an incursion of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into the British poultry flock
Authors

Kieran J. Sharkey<SUP>1, 2</SUP>, Roger G. Bowers<SUP>1</SUP>, Kenton L. Morgan<SUP>2</SUP>, Susan E. Robinson<SUP>2</SUP>, Robert M. Christley<SUP>2</SUP>

Abstract


Highly pathogenic avian influenza and in particular the H5N1 strain has resulted in the culling of millions of birds and continues to pose a threat to poultry industries worldwide. The recent outbreak of H5N1 in the UK highlights the need for detailed assessment of the consequences of an incursion and of the efficacy of control strategies. Here, we present results from a model of H5N1 propagation within the British poultry industry. We find that although the majority of randomly seeded incursions do not spread beyond the initial infected premises, there is significant potential for widespread infection. The efficacy of the European Union strategy for disease control is evaluated and our simulations emphasize the pivotal role of duck farms in spreading H5N1.


Keywords

bird flu, H5N1, avian influenza, simulation, periodic contacts, poultry farms

http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/9v0jtp1465266263/?p=1862b280801a44b1aba097d333075278&pi=8

Full text available for a fee.
 
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