Re: Bird flu (H5N1) in Norfolk Confirmed, November 12 +
Yes, I'll readily admit that. Basic stats courses, done years ago, with no field experience, only goes so far.
Yet I'll always reserve the right to ask questions and to attempt to learn - even if that process is taxing on the teacher. And to demand of extremely intelligent people to use their gift to explain complex matters in plain language.
This was very helpful. Thank you.
J.
I don't think you have a good grasp of the testing process.
Yes, I'll readily admit that. Basic stats courses, done years ago, with no field experience, only goes so far.
Yet I'll always reserve the right to ask questions and to attempt to learn - even if that process is taxing on the teacher. And to demand of extremely intelligent people to use their gift to explain complex matters in plain language.
It is somewhat like dusting for fingerprints at a murder scene. If someone matches the bloody finger print, then that person was at the scene. Finger prints need not be found on every item tested.
However, the H5N1 testing goes well beyond a single test. For Weybridge to announce a positive, they would almost certainly have multiple confirmatory tests like a rapid test, and a PCR test, and a sequence from a PCR test, and an isolated virus. Moreover, in all likelihood multiple samples are positive for multiple collections from a single bird, as well as multiple birds.
Since the birds did not have clinical signs, it is unlikely that H5N1 had spread to most of the birds, and positives may have been limited to a small number of those tested (and far fewer than 9000 birds would be tested).
This was very helpful. Thank you.
J.





