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Bird Flu Cases Decline, Raising New Risk: Complacency (Update1)

AlaskaDenise

In Memoriam
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aH72rK5F_ueg&refer=japan

By Jason Gale and John Lauerman

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Bird flu infected fewer humans in the second half of the year, prompting experts to point to a new enemy in the fight against a possible pandemic: complacency.

The lethal H5N1 strain of avian influenza was reported in people every two days in the first half. Since July, the number of cases has slowed to about one a week and scientists say the virus hasn't yet found a way to easily infect humans.

Governments should continue to track and eradicate the disease, even as public perception shifts and a pandemic poses no immediate threat, said David Nabarro, the United Nations coordinator for avian and pandemic influenza. The flu spread in domestic poultry and wild birds across 38 countries in Asia, Africa and Europe since February, offering the virus more chances to mutate into a form dangerous for humans.

``You don't stop airport security screening because there have been no hijacks for two years,'' Nabarro said in an interview from New York last week. ``The danger of a pandemic is as profound now as it was a few years ago.''

Since January, countries including the U.S. and Japan have pledged about $2.5 billion to fund efforts to monitor, manage and eradicate H5N1 and to prepare for a possible pandemic. Those efforts may have helped, according to Nabarro.

``It would be nice to think that the enormous amount of work that's been put into this is having an impact,'' he said. ``I think it's a bit early to tell.''

Hiccups Kills More People

The flu pandemic that struck in 1918 would probably kill about 62 million people nowadays, as many as died during World War II, the Lancet medical journal said last week.....
 
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Re: Bird Flu Cases Decline, Raising New Risk: Complacency (Update1)

From the article above, this is what keeps me situationally aware...

New Virus, No Immunity


The lethal strain of H5N1 was traced to a farmed goose in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong in 1996. It was found in South Korea in December 2003, before spreading across eastern Asia the following year and to Eastern Europe in 2005.


``H5N1 viruses have been around for nearly a decade and it might be tempting to conclude that if they were going to proceed to form or contribute to a pandemic strain, they would have done so by now,'' the influenza team at the European Centre for Disease Surveillance and Control said in a report last week.


Still, the strain that sparked the 1918 pandemic ``had been around for some years before it became part of a virus that could efficiently transmit between humans,'' they said.
 
Re: Bird Flu Cases Decline, Raising New Risk: Complacency (Update1)

...it might be tempting to conclude that if they were going to proceed to form or contribute to a pandemic strain, they would have done so by now...

I hear this logic quite often. People need to learn that SEVERAL avian influenza strains have the potential to progress to a pandemic strain.......for decades to come. We need some permanent changes in our procedures for agriculture & human/animal interface.

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