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Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

AlaskaDenise

In Memoriam
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2006/11/prweb477181.htm

According to top scientists, this could be a very dangerous winter. The world could be on the brink of the first global pandemic in almost 90 years. Is incomplete information and bad advice depriving the American family of a fair chance to prepare for a possible pandemic?

Dallas, Texas (PRWEB) November 28, 2006 -- Is the American public being told the complete truth from officials about a possible bird flu pandemic? The evidence is mounting that they are not. The Avian Flu experts at www.PlanForFlu.com are concerned that the negative repercussions of honest talk about a pandemic might be taking precedence over public health and safety.


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The federal government simply does not have the resources themselves to deal with this on a mass level. And if a pandemic does occur, it will overwhelm their resources, just like it will overwhelm ours.
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Many top scientists believe that the possibility of a bird flu pandemic is increasing, but most Americans, including the press, seem to have the impression that the danger has passed. Is there a reason for this apparent disconnect? Are Americans being given all of the information they need to prepare for a high-impact event?

A surprising example of government efforts to "tone it down" was highlighted recently in a government communication to all 60,000 U. S. citizens living in Hong Kong.

The November 3, 2006, newsletter, sent from the U. S. State Department to Americans living in Hong Kong, recommended the following:

"In the event of severe pandemic influenza with high morbidity, the public may be advised to self-quarantine. Therefore, current guidance notes that families should be prepared to "shelter-in-place" for up to twelve weeks, and maintain sufficient food and water supplies to accommodate that entire period." The newsletter recommended stockpiling water, obtaining a way to purify water, and suggested storing twelve weeks of "non-perishable foods, soap, alcohol-based hand wash, medicines, vitamins, flashlights, and a portable radio", and to have sufficient supplies for the entire period.

Just 6 days later, in a shocking and appallingly Orwellian move, the State Department re-issued the identical communication, but they had changed the recommendation to read "a two week supply".

Did the State Department feel that they needed to "match" the two-week CDC recommendation for supplies, which is woefully lacking? Did they think no one would notice this appalling and clumsy example of censorship?

The consensus among bird flu experts is that a 12-week supply of basic food, a way to purify or store water, plus medicine and other emergency supplies, is a reasonable and prudent goal. Reason and common sense tells us that a pandemic could not run its course in two weeks.

Infection, failures in utility delivery, and a lack of grocery supplies and other necessities would last much longer than that, leaving families without food and supplies. In fact, the two-week point would likely leave the ill-prepared American family without food or water during raging public infection.

According to www.PlanForFlu.com, the initial communication to U. S. citizens in Hong Kong suggests that government officials are taking the Avian Flu threat seriously, but that they feel that they must publicly downplay the danger in order to avoid economic, social, and political repercussions.

Some prominent scientists have become very critical of the government's response. These experts have bitterly complained that government silence and secrecy have created a situation where millions could die, not just from the flu but also from infrastructure problems such as food and energy shortages, and from violence related to these shortages.

The solution is clear. A well-prepared population would greatly reduce both death and misery, and would mitigate panic and relieve competition for available food and other supplies. Official suggestions to have "two weeks of food and water" are ridiculous to the extreme. Would a pandemic be over in two weeks? Could services be restored and store shelves be re-stocked while a deadly flu virus rages around the world? The answer, of course, is no.

The Implementation Plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (i.e. the President's Plan) states "...the national impact of a pandemic could last many months." Yet, the same report recommends 2 weeks of survival supplies to prepare for a pandemic. So who will feed the American family for the rest of these 'many months'? Not the states, that's for sure. The 'President's Plan' says that "State, Local, and Private Sector entities' have 'primary responsibility' for public safety, security, and emergency preparation during a pandemic crisis."

However, according to a May 19, 2006 USA Today story, Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who leads the National Governors Association, is quoted saying states have "pretty much been told to prepare to row their own boat" in responding to bird flu. Federal health officials "were pretty candid with us," Huckabee said in an interview. "The federal government simply does not have the resources themselves to deal with this on a mass level. And if a pandemic does occur, it will overwhelm their resources, just like it will overwhelm ours."

The government has their agenda. They want to allay panic, to soothe the "sheeple". No individual in government wants to take the responsibility for overstating the case of a possible pandemic.

Intelligent people should remember the lesson learned during hurricane Katrina.

Disasters can happen. The answer to this dilemma is simple... be prepared. Don't depend on FEMA, or the Red Cross, or the government to rescue you.

This becomes even more important since, in related news, scientists have announced that a new H5N1 bird flu virus strain has been detected in China. The new strain seems to be displacing other H5N1 strains. Scientists have feared for several years that the ill-advised use of "bird vaccines" would only serve to create resistant strains of the virus. To complicate matters, China and other countries that are harboring this disease engage in abominably poor public heath practices, which will increase the likelihood that a fatal, human-to-human form will spread.

Burials of suspected bird flu victims without tests for H5N1 are common. False negatives from those who have been given Tamiflu are also common. It's also feared that actual mortality numbers have been distorted. China has reported 3 human deaths, but the number suspected by some virologists is in excess of 300. In fact, worldwide there are many more deaths than the formal numbers tell us. There is much more disease spread from human-to-human contact than they are telling us. In an attempt to keep the masses calm (and not affect financial markets) we are not being given all of the information we need to prepare our families for a high-impact event.

What should people do? Suggestions for needed supplies and information are readily available. A family needs to have a method of water purification and some safety masks/respirators. They need flashlights, and a way to get news and information without electric service, since utilities will almost certainly go down if a pandemic strikes. www.PlanForFlu.com has detailed survival supply lists, including a common-sense grocery list of simple storage foods.

Supplies would also be needed for an earthquake, hurricane, ice storm, blizzard, tornado, flood, utility outage, or a nuclear or terrorist attack. The www.PlanForFlu.com website explains that these preparations can be helpful for a wide variety of circumstances.

The website encourages individuals to learn how to deal with emergencies by thoughtfully preparing, and provides the information and resources needed. No one really knows if Avian Influenza will reach a pandemic form. If it doesn't, a prepared person will have the supplies needed to weather most types of disasters. The unprepared person risks having their family go without food and water in a pandemic or other disaster scenario.

Plan For Flu is a comprehensive resource, which includes lots of practical information, and a very detailed listing of the items that would be needed to survive a disaster.

www.PlanForFlu.com

"We're as worried now as we ever have been. To believe that you can contain this locally is to believe in fairy tales,"

---Dr Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy at the University of Minnesota.

"Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility. I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role."

- --Dr Robert Webster, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn. He is credited as the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.

,
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

The word is spreading that we are being manipulated.

I understand the government viewpoint, in a way. In the U.S., if you tell a person to buy 12 weeks of preps, many will say "well, if you advise 12 weeks, you should furnish that to me at your expense". They also must realize how little it takes to make a population go nuts with panic.

I've begun to see that the so-called 'Flubies' can actually be the balance. The power of the Internet flu community was shown in spades during the Canadian rumor incident. The people on the boards are savvy, and often brilliant.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

This is a press release from a website, www.planforflu, that sells emergency preparedness supplies. While we may agree with much of what it says, readers should be aware that the press release is not entirely disinterested but is essentially functioning as advertising.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

Nancy said:
This is a press release from a website, www.planforflu, that sells emergency preparedness supplies. While we may agree with much of what it says, readers should be aware that the press release is not entirely disinterested but is essentially functioning as advertising.

Yes Nancy--I also thought the same. Much of what planforflu reports is quite true, but I am disappointed that it is ad copy for their pandemic supplies sales oriented website.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

As a warning, PRWeb is an advertising service. Read these "announcements" with caution. They are essentially advertising.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

It has always seemed funny to me that an Adwords type site that sells things is thought "less than credible" because they get their money by selling directly, but for some reason the sites that have Adsense type ads on them are thought credible because they are not selling something? Yes, they are, they are SELLING ADS , thereby selling indirectly!

Websites use different ways to get money; ad banners, buying keywords on the search engines, hosting toolbars, ads on search pages, Adsense ads, money from the government, selling something, and donations.

Here are some types:

Plan For Flu: Google adwords. Buys ads, sells some things, anything left over after buying merchandise, buying ads, and paying per-click for keywords, and hosting, goes in pocket. Would probably do a lot better by getting rid of bird flu educational stuff and having a site like Nitro-Pak, which is merchandise only.

CE- Google Adsense to non-registered, banners and Adsense ads.

NPR, PBS- Government pays, meaning you pay.

News sites, almost all- They have Google Adwords, Yahoo ads, or other ads. ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, newspapers, all selling something. So you don't believe what they say, because the sites are for making money? Bird Flu News and CNN are equal in these terms.

You don't think TV News is there in the public interest, do you? They would be gone tomorrow if there was no profit in their advertising. If a PRWeb article is a pile of advertising, so is CNN.

FluTrackers- Google toolbar and donations. This is the least-grabby site I've ever seen, why not send them a little holiday present.

Disagree? Go and look. Show me a site that isn't getting money from somewhere, (or at least trying to), and explain to me why running ads for another business to sell something is somehow more noble than selling something.

And yes, PRWeb is self promotion, but if you have something interesting to say, PRWeb copy is picked up by mainstream media like you wouldn't believe.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

interesting points, Lynda. I hadn't quite thought of it that way. Its making me examine my assumptions.

I guess I subconsiously equate obvious direct sales as profit making motive and tend to be leery of the motives involved- are they in it just to make money, or are they making money to be in it? :) Unless I have enough experience with them to know otherwise, I am less likely to beleive a profit making site is a creditable source, because I cant be sure if what they are posting is public service or self service.

again, before I provoke an obviously deserved criticism of that statement- I'm verbalizing what my subconscious assumptions seem to be....trying to think them through and see how valid they are or arent.

Ads- I dont and havent equated them with sales or profits to the sites they are on. I usually think of them as the way many (most?) sites defer the costs of doing business. Big sites are expensive, and I think we at FT are lucky not to have them , and its only because our Admins have made that possible by digging into their own pockets to do so.

Neither assumption may apply to any individual site- or any individual behind them, for that matter. I realize that intellectually that each site should be appraised on different criteria than profit motive. But thats the asumptrions I have been working with- thanks for pointing this out, its a good reality check and reminder for me not to lump things together with labels but evaluate each case individually.

after thinking about this, I'd have to say that I apparently subconsicously inlcude motive when I'm assessing reliability.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

Perfectly put.

It's easier to imagine that the site is seeking only dollars when the merchandise is right there, on the site.

Even though, if CNN has an ad for Nissan, the dollar-seeking behaviour is exactly the same. We just don't perceive it as equal.

As you said, when most see an ad, they perceive that the site is just deferring expense. If it's direct selling it's perceived that there is a profit being made.

:tiphat:
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

Capitalism is not a dirty word in my book. I see nothing wrong with someone making a fair $ in exchange for a product. It doesn't lessen the value of the product, even if the "goods" is news. I hate buying a magazine only to find it so laced with ads that there is barely room for content, however, I do have a choice about whether to buy that mag again or not. I draw the line at monopolies, coercion, or scare tactics. I'll save my rant about the lack (with many exceptions) of good investigative journalism for another day :cool: (no offense to J. Gale, of course)

FWIW, I think it is important that we continually point out that PRNews is not an independent traditional "hard news" site. Just as we point out that some other news sources may be state controlled.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

Even if this is 'only' an ad, the point that it makes about preparation, or lack of, is valid.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

What is hard news these days? Is talking about the "American Idol" program that follows the news, NEWS!? New homes on the news? New product? New drug? New diet pill? Mostly paid for!

In the old days, advertising something in a sneaky way was called "Payola"-The paying of cash or gifts in exchange for airplay. It was illegal. Commercial bribery.

Now the fact that half of the news is really ads for something is accepted by us as the norm. And those talk shows! Do you think that the restaurant chef on a show cooking is reallly a GUEST? Often his restaurant paid to be on there. And stupid Marc Seigel with his assinine bird flu book? PAID to be on there!

When you really think about it, PrWeb isn't much cheesier than local nightly news.

I'm all for the folks who are interested in Avian Influenza being able to keep their sites up. But Google isn't turning in huge stock increases each quarter for nothing. Keeping a site up using paid ads can cost $1000.00 and up per day! I think that "scare a newbee" sites benefit us all.

/rant :)
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

FYI - The google bar on the site does not generate any revenue. It is a tool provided for convenience.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

Hi All
Yeah I did it. I tried talking to my local leaders. They nod their heads like bobble toys and told me the township's emergency plan amounts to whatever the county tells them to do. I tried talking to a county Health Department Director. She talked for about two hours and didn't say much. She also did not volunteer to get back to me with the answers to many of the questions I had that she couldn't (or didn't want to) answer. I got the feeling that if she NEVER saw me again it would be fine with her.

Trying to get straight answers from my local government on emergency preparation is bonking your head against the wall. It feels better when you stop.

I wrote an article for a local paper and was told they don't print things like that.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

Amish Country said:
It feels better when you stop.

:D

Evolution of a Bird Flu community activist:
Enthusiasm>Work>Hopefulness>Suspicion>Anger>Resignation>S@rew Them!
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

Lynda said:
:D

Evolution of a Bird Flu community activist:
Enthusiasm>Work>Hopefulness>Suspicion>Anger>Resignation>S@rew Them!

I think there's quite a few people in that boat at the moment! however, to look at the bright side-we're not rearranging deck chairs! We're still "patching holes" in our personal and when possible, larger community (be it neighborhood or larger) preps.

If we are allowed a little more time for this to evolve, I think we may find that as it ramps up, that may change.

For example- if that case in Canada has indeed been real, and the media run with it; I believe we'd see a new influx of North Americans looking for info. If the evolution includes enough time (even if its months) for the WHO alert levels to be raised, then as more and more start to get offical notice that its looking like it will really happen, the opportunitites to make a difference will increase.

I guess thats one of the problems with being an Early Adopter-sometimes you're too early for the masses. Paul Revere had it easy- he was only hours ahead of a threat that people belived in and anticipated! :D

My best hope for bottom up preparation improvement is that there are multiple large clusters that occur a few months before breakout. Its been such a slow progression (by uninterested public standards, not evolutionary ones!) that the public still doesnt identify it as a real and present danger.

There's no widespread Sense of Urgency. Urgency breeds outrage, and outrage translates to action.

Look at the difference in community reaction to risks that happen with and without warning. Folks living on the San Andreas fault are little more likely to have some preps for an earthquake saved up and ready. They know it can happen without warning. Folks who live in Florida are less likely to prepare in advance for a hurricane, or the Midwest for a blizzard- they percieve they have time to go buy "milk and bread" when the weatherman tells them to. How people react to hurricane warnings is an interesting study.

They are far more likely to take effective precautions (like getting out of Dodge) if they percieve high personal risk. Hurricanes can be relatively mild or terribly destructive. If all they have recent personal experience of is mild ones, they tend to perceive that the personal risk is low-level. Then an Andrew or a Katrina comes along, and the Sense of Urgency is increased each time a new one heads their way, and preps and actions are more significant. More people evacuate at-risk areas.

We havent had a Viral Katrina in almost 90 years. Its far beyond the collective consciousness. Its like trying to warn a community thats been plopped down in Hurricane Alley with no prior knowledge of what a hurricane is or can do that one is coming their way...all they can mentally percieve is that its a long thunderstorm, something they know and find relatively low risk- "it's just the flu".

But, if the Town of Clueless happened to see a neighboring town hit and devasted in recent time, and then you tell the same is heading their way-they will be more likely to react. The resident Early Adopters will have gone out and bought their flashlights and bottled water soon after seeing the devastation on TV.

They will have talked it up-and probably gotten mixed reaction- a good dose of "that can't happen here", some mild concern, perhaps encouraged some to prep also. Even if their target audience wont necessarily admit they were concerned enough to do so, some will have put up a few days preps or a radio and batteries and said "thats better than most", and feel better themselves by assuaging their concerns, then promptly dismiss the risk. After all, the cavalry will come to the rescue...only a rare few will make deeper preps, have hurricane shutters and genny and weeks or months of preps, or have decided to sell out and move to where the risk is less.

I think that where we are now.

If the evolution of the virus is going slow, and we have large clusters of dozens, or even hundreds that are localized and dont spread beyond that right away but prompt the WHO alert level to rise higher I think we'll be in much better shape community prep wise. Especially if it prompts the PTB start a rapid and intense public service education campaign-then more will prepare and have time to.

IMHO that is the time for us "community activists" to strike, while the iron is hot! Right as "the risk becomes real".

Thats what I'm personally waiting for, while taking whatever small opportunities come my way in the meantime.

If we wake up and go from level 3 to 6 overnight, we wont have that grace period. Thats my nightmare.

I think that most local organizations that are encouraging preps assume we'll probably have that time to encourage preps, if they have any urgency at all, and even have any belief that its going to happen. They think the 1918 time line will probalby reoccur. They fail to take into account that it may not, and may be more like the SARS explosion pattern than the 1918 apparent small regional areas with a milder intitial strain. That and the fear of encouraging the public to take any extensive and expensive action for threat thats not on their doorstep will back-fire on them. They've been taught that by the 70's Swine Flu Debacle and the Duct Tape Incident.

Its an uphill road right now. I beleive that at some point, it will be a much easier sell. After being rebuffed often, my intitial reaction was pretty much the time line thats quoted! :o Then I realized that I was just too early for the way most peoples minds work. Now I look for seminal opportunities to "plant seeds" and let it rest there. I'm more content to wait until the time is ripe.

Its not the best option, I dislike it for the very reasons we speak of that the JIT economy and most personal economies cant handle that approach well. But if thats the way its going to play out- then all I can do is sigh, look for opportunites as I can, make them if possible, and prepare for the big one to come. Each of us is going to have different opportunities and timelines because our audiences are different. Some are more receptive than others, some will remain so deep in denial or suspicious that they may never react. All we can do is make the best of whats handed to us...

or Get Out of Dodge.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

Yep. We are going to have to play with what's dealt us.

The thing that I fear will happen is that JIT delivery-caused shortages, false-negatives, government secrecy, and all of the million other factors we talk about will conspire against us as a whole. It may be "momma-lock-the-door" time for preppers by the time the hammer comes down.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

Great post, LMonty!

My strategy exactly, although I'm always surprised how receptive my audiences are. I think it has to do with the fact that many of them saw the Katrina results directly as they supplied whatever relief they could.

Keep on keeping on.

It is not your responsibility to change minds. It is only "your mission, should you choose to accept it" to share what you know and believe to be true. If minds change, it will be the result of the person hearing your message.
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

Thanks for the support, Mellie.

I think that audiences that have seen bad things happen are more receptive- and firefighters know that bad things happen on a fairly regular basis, especially when you least expect it...

I agree that firsthand knowledge of Katrina probably helps- it ought to motivate a rock to get up and do something! LOLOL what amazes me is that more of the general public, who probably saw hours of coverage and was appalled- didnt personalize the prep message. That I admit I can't figure out . I just throw my hands in the air and go "Duh!".
 
Re: Bird Flu: a Disconnect Between Government, Science, and Common Sense

LMonty said:
Thanks for the support, Mellie.

I think that audiences that have seen bad things happen are more receptive- and firefighters know that bad things happen on a fairly regular basis, especially when you least expect it...

I agree that firsthand knowledge of Katrina probably helps- it ought to motivate a rock to get up and do something! LOLOL what amazes me is that more of the general public, who probably saw hours of coverage and was appalled- didnt personalize the prep message. That I admit I can't figure out . I just throw my hands in the air and go "Duh!".

You never know just how much people are taking this information in. You have to hope for the best, and know that you tried to help them to make wise choices, and to at least think about how this will effect them. I have noticed that many people lurk at these flu sites. I think that it's a good thing. At least, they are being exposed to the problem solving and creative ideas expressed here, and the other websites.
 
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