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Biorxiv: ​​​​​​​Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2

sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President
hat tip Michael Coston


Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2

View ORCID ProfileB Korber, View ORCID ProfileWM Fischer, View ORCID ProfileS Gnanakaran, H Yoon, View ORCID ProfileJ Theiler, W Abfalterer, View ORCID ProfileB Foley, EE Giorgi, View ORCID ProfileT Bhattacharya, MD Parker, DG Partridge, CM Evans, View ORCID ProfileTI de Silva, on behalf of the Sheffield COVID-19 Genomics Group, View ORCID ProfileCC LaBranche, View ORCID ProfileDC Montefiori
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054
Summary


We have developed an analysis pipeline to facilitate real-time mutation tracking in SARS-CoV-2, focusing initially on the Spike (S) protein because it mediates infection of human cells and is the target of most vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics. To date we have identified fourteen mutations in Spike that are accumulating. Mutations are considered in a broader phylogenetic context, geographically, and over time, to provide an early warning system to reveal mutations that may confer selective advantages in transmission or resistance to interventions. Each one is evaluated for evidence of positive selection, and the implications of the mutation are explored through structural modeling. The mutation Spike D614G is of urgent concern; it began spreading in Europe in early February, and when introduced to new regions it rapidly becomes the dominant form. Also, we present evidence of recombination between locally circulating strains, indicative of multiple strain infections. These finding have important implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, pathogenesis and immune interventions.


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...04.29.069054v1
 
I think the first known sequence with D641G(spike)=A23403G was in Munich sampled Jan27 together with C241T,C3037T . Supposed to have
come from a Shanghai-lady with first symptoms on ~Jan21, who had got it from her Wuhan-parents visiting Shanghai.
So it was on Jan10 in Wuhan. That cluster was probably contained and subsequent/other occurrances had the additional C14408T mutation.
It is in English sequences sampled on Feb14,Feb15,Feb16,Feb18,Feb19,Feb20... ,with no connection to Munich
(I'm not sure, was it that Singapore-France-Brighton superspreader ?)
In total 6470 from 9376 UK-genomes have these 4 mutations. [UK published >10000 sequences recently, tweet from Rambaut]
It's similar in other European countries. I think this shows that the occurrance of D641G is random and not somehow "forced".. Why else
would it alwys only appear together with the other 3 mutations which are at totally different places ? It is not being "developed" in other strains.
 
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