tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Biomed Res Int
. 2021 Oct 28;2021:9498029.
doi: 10.1155/2021/9498029. eCollection 2021.
The Impact of China's Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Mooketsi Molefi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], John T Tlhakanelo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Thabo Phologolo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Shimeles G Hamda[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tiny Masupe[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Billy Tsima[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Vincent Setlhare[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yohana Mashalla[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Douglas J Wiebe[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: Policy changes are often necessary to contain the detrimental impact of epidemics such as those brought about by coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In the earlier phases of the emergence of COVID-19, China was the first to impose strict restrictions on movement (lockdown) on January 23rd, 2020. A strategy whose effectiveness in curtailing COVID-19 was yet to be determined. We, therefore, sought to study the impact of the lockdown in reducing the incidence of COVID-19.
Methods: Daily cases of COVID-19 that occurred in China which were registered between January 12th and March 30th, 2020, were extracted from the Johns Hopkins CSSE team COVID-19 ArcGIS® dashboards. Daily cases reported were used as data points in the series. Two interrupted series models were run: one with an interruption point of 23 January 2020 (model 1) and the other with a 14-day deferred interruption point of 6th February (model 2). For both models, the magnitude of change (before and after) and linear trend analyses were measured, and β-coefficients reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) for the precision.
Results: Seventy-eight data points were used in the analysis. There was an 11% versus a 163% increase in daily cases in models 1 and 2, respectively, in the preintervention periods (p ≤ 0.001). Comparing the period immediately following the intervention points to the counterfactual, there was a daily increase of 2,746% (p < 0.001) versus a decline of 207% (p = 0.802) in model 2. However, in both scenarios, there was a statistically significant drop in the daily cases predicted for this data and beyond when comparing the preintervention periods and postintervention periods (p < 0.001).
Conclusion: There was a significant decrease the COVID-19 daily cases reported in China following the institution of a lockdown, and therefore, lockdown may be used to curtail the burden of COVID-19.
. 2021 Oct 28;2021:9498029.
doi: 10.1155/2021/9498029. eCollection 2021.
The Impact of China's Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Mooketsi Molefi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], John T Tlhakanelo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Thabo Phologolo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Shimeles G Hamda[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tiny Masupe[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Billy Tsima[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Vincent Setlhare[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Yohana Mashalla[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Douglas J Wiebe[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 34722775
- PMCID: PMC8553467
- DOI: 10.1155/2021/9498029
Abstract
Background: Policy changes are often necessary to contain the detrimental impact of epidemics such as those brought about by coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In the earlier phases of the emergence of COVID-19, China was the first to impose strict restrictions on movement (lockdown) on January 23rd, 2020. A strategy whose effectiveness in curtailing COVID-19 was yet to be determined. We, therefore, sought to study the impact of the lockdown in reducing the incidence of COVID-19.
Methods: Daily cases of COVID-19 that occurred in China which were registered between January 12th and March 30th, 2020, were extracted from the Johns Hopkins CSSE team COVID-19 ArcGIS® dashboards. Daily cases reported were used as data points in the series. Two interrupted series models were run: one with an interruption point of 23 January 2020 (model 1) and the other with a 14-day deferred interruption point of 6th February (model 2). For both models, the magnitude of change (before and after) and linear trend analyses were measured, and β-coefficients reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) for the precision.
Results: Seventy-eight data points were used in the analysis. There was an 11% versus a 163% increase in daily cases in models 1 and 2, respectively, in the preintervention periods (p ≤ 0.001). Comparing the period immediately following the intervention points to the counterfactual, there was a daily increase of 2,746% (p < 0.001) versus a decline of 207% (p = 0.802) in model 2. However, in both scenarios, there was a statistically significant drop in the daily cases predicted for this data and beyond when comparing the preintervention periods and postintervention periods (p < 0.001).
Conclusion: There was a significant decrease the COVID-19 daily cases reported in China following the institution of a lockdown, and therefore, lockdown may be used to curtail the burden of COVID-19.