tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Biomed Res Int
. 2020 Dec 3;2020:5607236.
doi: 10.1155/2020/5607236. eCollection 2020.
A Mathematical and Statistical Estimation of Potential Transmission and Severity of COVID-19: A Combined Study of Romania and Pakistan
Muhammad Ozair[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Takasar Hussain[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mureed Hussain[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Aziz Ullah Awan[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Dumitru Baleanu[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Kashif Ali Abro[SUP] 5 6 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
During the outbreak of an epidemic, it is of immense interest to monitor the effects of containment measures and forecast of outbreak including epidemic peak. To confront the epidemic, a simple SIR model is used to simulate the number of affected patients of coronavirus disease in Romania and Pakistan. The model captures the growth in case onsets, and the estimated results are almost compatible with the actual reported cases. Through the calibration of parameters, forecast for the appearance of new cases in Romania and Pakistan is reported till the end of this year by analysing the current situation. The constant level of number of patients and time to reach this level is also reported through the simulations. The drastic condition is also discussed which may occur if all the preventive restraints are removed.
. 2020 Dec 3;2020:5607236.
doi: 10.1155/2020/5607236. eCollection 2020.
A Mathematical and Statistical Estimation of Potential Transmission and Severity of COVID-19: A Combined Study of Romania and Pakistan
Muhammad Ozair[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Takasar Hussain[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mureed Hussain[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Aziz Ullah Awan[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Dumitru Baleanu[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Kashif Ali Abro[SUP] 5 6 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33354566
- PMCID: PMC7735850
- DOI: 10.1155/2020/5607236
Abstract
During the outbreak of an epidemic, it is of immense interest to monitor the effects of containment measures and forecast of outbreak including epidemic peak. To confront the epidemic, a simple SIR model is used to simulate the number of affected patients of coronavirus disease in Romania and Pakistan. The model captures the growth in case onsets, and the estimated results are almost compatible with the actual reported cases. Through the calibration of parameters, forecast for the appearance of new cases in Romania and Pakistan is reported till the end of this year by analysing the current situation. The constant level of number of patients and time to reach this level is also reported through the simulations. The drastic condition is also discussed which may occur if all the preventive restraints are removed.