tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Biology (Basel)
. 2021 Feb 19;10(2):165.
doi: 10.3390/biology10020165.
Are There Any Parameters Missing in the Mathematical Models Applied in the Process of Spreading COVID-19?
Pietro M Boselli[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Massimo Basagni[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jose M Soriano[SUP] 3 4 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
On 11 March 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). As of 12.44 GMT on 15 January 2021, it has produced 93,640,296 cases and 2,004,984 deaths. The use of mathematical modelling was applied in Italy, Spain, and UK to help in the prediction of this pandemic. We used equations from general and reduced logistic models to describe the epidemic development phenomenon and the trend over time. We extracted this information from the Italian Ministry of Health, the Spanish Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs, and Social Welfare, and the UK Statistics Authority from 3 February to 30 April 2020. We estimated that, from the seriousness of the phenomenon, the consequent pathology, and the lethal outcomes, the COVID-19 trend relate to the same classic laws that govern epidemics and their evolution. The curve d(t) helps to obtain information on the duration of the epidemic phenomenon, as its evolution is related to the efficiency and timeliness of the system, control, diagnosis, and treatment. In fact, the analysis of this curve, after acquiring the data of the first three weeks, also favors the advantage to formulate forecast hypotheses on the progress of the epidemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; Italy; Spain; UK; modelling study.
. 2021 Feb 19;10(2):165.
doi: 10.3390/biology10020165.
Are There Any Parameters Missing in the Mathematical Models Applied in the Process of Spreading COVID-19?
Pietro M Boselli[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Massimo Basagni[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Jose M Soriano[SUP] 3 4 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33669895
- DOI: 10.3390/biology10020165
Abstract
On 11 March 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). As of 12.44 GMT on 15 January 2021, it has produced 93,640,296 cases and 2,004,984 deaths. The use of mathematical modelling was applied in Italy, Spain, and UK to help in the prediction of this pandemic. We used equations from general and reduced logistic models to describe the epidemic development phenomenon and the trend over time. We extracted this information from the Italian Ministry of Health, the Spanish Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs, and Social Welfare, and the UK Statistics Authority from 3 February to 30 April 2020. We estimated that, from the seriousness of the phenomenon, the consequent pathology, and the lethal outcomes, the COVID-19 trend relate to the same classic laws that govern epidemics and their evolution. The curve d(t) helps to obtain information on the duration of the epidemic phenomenon, as its evolution is related to the efficiency and timeliness of the system, control, diagnosis, and treatment. In fact, the analysis of this curve, after acquiring the data of the first three weeks, also favors the advantage to formulate forecast hypotheses on the progress of the epidemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; Italy; Spain; UK; modelling study.