BF Survey Not All Americans Would Stay Home

T. ModestoPhD · Oct 26, 2006

Pandemic Flu Would Not Keep All Americans At Home<o></o>
Main Category: Bird Flu / Avian Flu News<o

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Article Date: 26 Oct 2006 - 14:00pm (PDT)<o

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http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/healthnews.php?newsid=55216&nfid=al
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Although most Americans would try hard to comply with a request to stay at home to stem the spread of pandemic flu, work and lifestyle pressures would probably make this pledge impossible to keep, say researchers from the Harvard School of Public Health. The survey, called Project on the Public and Biological Security (HPBS), was conducted to help public health officials plan for a possible flu pandemic or outbreak.<o

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A survey of 1692 adults found that:<o

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-- 94% said they would stay at home for seven to ten days if they had pandemic flu<o

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-- 85% said they would stay at home for seven to ten days if a member of the household had pandemic flu<o

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-- 90% said they would stay in their town or city if told to do so<o

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-- 57% said they would stay at home if health officials told them, even if their bosses told them to come to work<o

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-- 35% said they would go to work if their bosses told them to come to work, and public health officials had told them to stay at home<o

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-- 25% said they would not be able to miss work to care for a sick relative<o

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-- 76% of people who were told to stay at home to care for a sick household member would be worried about catching the illness<o

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-- 24% said they would have nobody to care for them if they were ill<o

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As you can see, the statistics don't add up.<o

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If a pandemic strikes, keeping people at home until a vaccine is available is one way of controlling its spread. However, expecting people to stay in may amount to nothing more than wishful thinking. Other measures, such as closing schools and institutions, churches, shopping centers, sports venues and all places where large numbers of people congregate could also be enforced. But if contagious people sneak out, how effective would this be?<o

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What would happen to a nation's economy if huge numbers of people had to stay at home - people such as garbage collectors, electricity workers, people who make sure we have running water?<o

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Click here to view the complete survey (PowerPoint)<o

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The survey's findings will be presented today at an <st1

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lace> - Modeling Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza. Professor Marc Lpsitch will also explain what interventions took place during the 1918 flu pandemic - Spanish Flu - which probably killed approximately 50 million people.<o

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"In the Case of an Outbreak of Pandemic Flu, Large Majority of Americans Willing to Make Major Changes in Their Lives"<o

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"Survey Also Finds Many People Would Face Critical Work-Related Problems"<o

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<st1

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Link Here<o

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Written by: Christian Nordqvist<o

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Editor: Medical News Today
In the Case of an Outbreak of Pandemic Flu, Large Majority of Americans Willing to Make Major Changes in Their Lives<o

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Survey Also Finds Many People Would Face Critical Work-Related Problems<o

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For immediate release: Thursday, October 26, 2006<o

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lace> -- The latest national survey conducted by the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) Project on the Public and Biological Security finds that when faced with a serious outbreak of pandemic flu, a large majority of Americans are willing to make major changes in their lives and cooperate with public health officials' recommendations.<o

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However, the survey also finds that a substantial share of Americans would have no one to care for them if they become ill or would face serious financial problems if they had to stay home from work for a week or more.<o

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To view the complete survey and Power Point slides see: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/panflu/IOM_Avian_flu.ppt<o

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http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/panflu/panflu_charts.ppt<o

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http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/panflu/panflu_release_topline.doc<o

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Pandemic flu is a term used to describe a virulent human flu that causes a global outbreak, or pandemic, of serious illness. Because there is little natural immunity, the disease can spread easily from person to person. Currently, there is no pandemic flu, but health officials are concerned that the H5N1 avian flu which has caused about 250 illnesses and deaths among people in Asia, Africa, and <st1

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lace> could become a pandemic flu. No humans or poultry in the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1

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lace></st1:country-region> have been infected with this avian flu virus.<o

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This HSPH survey was conducted to help public health officials in planning for a possible outbreak of pandemic flu and will be presented Thursday, Oct. 26 in <st1:City w:st="on">Washington</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">D.C.</st1:State> at an <st1

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lace> workshop: Modeling Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza. HSPH Professor Marc Lipsitch will also be presenting historical analyses of interventions in the 1918 pandemic, comparing cities that intervened early and those that intervened late, to assess the difference in epidemic curves in these groups of cities.<o

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This is the first report to attempt to tap the public's intentions when faced with the specific circumstances of an outbreak. The people interviewed were first read a scenario* about an outbreak of flu that spreads rapidly among humans and causes severe illness. They were then asked how they would respond to and be affected by the circumstances that would arise from such an outbreak.<o

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Willingness to Cooperate with Public Health Recommendations More than three-fourths of Americans say they would cooperate if public health officials recommended that for one month they curtail various activities of their daily lives, such as using public transportation, going to the mall, and going to church (Figure 1). More than nine in ten (94%) say they would stay at home away from other people for seven to ten days if they had pandemic flu (Figure 2). In addition, 85% say they and all members of their household would stay at home for that period if another member of their household was sick.<o

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Nine in ten Americans (90%) say that if public health officials recommended that they and the other members of their household stay in their town or city, they were likely to stay.<o

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These findings speak to the resilience of the American public in the face of a potential health crisis, said Robert J. Blendon, Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health.<o

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The area where anticipated cooperation is lowest involved the workplace. While a majority (57%) of employed adults say they would stay home from work if public officials said they should, even if their employers told them to come to work, about one-third (35%) say they would go to work.<o

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Home More than eight in ten Americans (85%) say they would be able to take care of sick household members at home for 7 to 10 days, if public health officials recommended it (Figure 2). However, about three-fourths (76%) say they would be worried that if they stayed at home with a household member who was sick from pandemic flu, they themselves would get sick from the disease.<o

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Nearly three-fourths (73%) say they would have someone to take care of them at home if they became sick with pandemic flu and had to remain at home for seven to ten days. However, about one in four (24%) say they would not have someone to take care of them. More than four in ten people living in one-adult households (45%) and about one third of low-income (36%), African-American (34%), disabled (33%), and chronically ill (32%) adults say they would not have anyone to take care of them if they were sick and had to remain at home that long.<o

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A substantial proportion of the public believes that they or a household member would be likely to experience various problems, such as losing pay, being unable to get the health care or prescription drugs they need, or being unable to get care for an older or disabled person, if they stayed at home for seven to ten days and avoided contact with anyone outside their household (Figure 3).<o

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School Closings If schools and daycare were closed for one month, 93% of adults who have major responsibility for children under age 5 in daycare or age 5 to 17 and have at least one employed adult in the household think they would be able to arrange care so that at least one employed adult in the household could go to work. Almost as many (86%) would be able to do so if schools were closed for three months (Figure 4). However, six in ten (60%) say that at least one employed person would have to stay home if schools were closed for a month.<o

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Only one-fourth (25%) of employed people who have major responsibility for children under age 5 in daycare or age 5-17 in their household say that if schools and daycare closed for one month, they would be able to work from home and take care of the children.<o

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More than nine in ten (95%) adults with major responsibility for children age 5 to 17 report that they would be willing to give school lessons at home if schools were closed for three months.<o

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More than eight in ten (85%) of these adults also think that if schools were closed for three months and public health officials recommended it, they would be able to keep their children and teenagers from taking public transportation, going to public events, and gathering outside home while schools were closed.<o

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"A surprisingly large number of people would be able to keep their children home and away from others if schools closed during a severe pandemic," said Blendon.<o

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About six in ten (64%) of these adults would need only a little or no help at all in order to deal with the problems of having to stay home and keep children at home for a long period of time. Of those who say they would need a lot or some help, half (50%) would rely most on help from family, 11% on friends or neighbors, and 34% on outside agencies.<o

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Work The survey asked employed Americans about the problems they might have if they were asked to stay out of work for seven to ten days, a month, and three months because of an outbreak of pandemic flu in their community.<o

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The longer people are out of work, the greater the number of people who will face financial problems. While most employed people (74%) believe they could miss seven to ten days of work without having serious financial problems, one in four (25%) said they would face such problems. A majority (57%) think they would have serious financial problems if they had to miss work for one month, and a total of three-fourths (76%) think they would have such problems if they were away from work for three months (Figure 5).<o

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Only about three in ten (29%) say that if they had to stay away from the workplace for one month, they would be able to work from home for that long.<o

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Employed Americans were also asked about their current employers plans and policies for dealing with an outbreak of pandemic flu. Few working people (19%) are aware of any plan at their workplace to respond to a serious outbreak of pandemic flu. About one in five employed adults (22%) are very or somewhat worried that their employer would make them go to work even if they were sick. Half (50%) believe that their workplace would stay open if public health officials recommended that some businesses in their community should shut down. Only about one-third (35%) of employed Americans think that if they stayed home from work, they would still get paid; 42% think they would not get paid, and 22% do not know whether they would get paid or not.<o

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"These findings are a wake-up call for business, that employees have serious financial concerns and are unclear about the workplace plans and policies for dealing with pandemic flu," said Blendon.<o

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*scenario read to interviewees: "Now I want to ask you some questions about a possible outbreak in the U.S. of pandemic flu, a new type of flu that spreads rapidly among humans and causes severe illness. Currently there have not been any cases of pandemic flu in the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1

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Methodology This is the 25th in a series of studies by the Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Security. The study was designed and analyzed by researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH). The project director is Robert J. Blendon of the Harvard School of Public Health. The research team also includes John M. Benson and Kathleen J. Weldon of the Harvard School of Public Health, and Melissa J. Herrmann of ICR/International Communications Research. Fieldwork was conducted via telephone for the Project by ICR/International Communications Research of Media (PA) between September 28 and October 5, 2006 <o

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The survey was conducted with a representative national sample of 1,697 adults age 18 and over, including an oversample of adults who had children under age 18 in their households. Altogether 821 such adults with children were interviewed. In the overall results, this group was weighted to its actual proportion (38%) of the total adult population.<o

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The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.<o

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Possible sources of non-sampling error include non-response bias, as well as question wording and ordering effects. Non-response in telephone surveys produces some known biases in survey-derived estimates because participation tends to vary for different subgroups of the population. To compensate for these known biases, sample data are weighted to the most recent Census data available from the Current Population Survey for gender, age, race, region, and education. Other techniques, including random-digit dialing, replicate subsamples, callbacks staggered over times of day and days of the week, and systematic respondent selection within households, are used to ensure that the sample is representative.<o

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For further information contact: Robin Herman, HSPH Office of Communications<o

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(617) 432-4388<o

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rherman@hsph.harvard.edu

Snowy Owl · Oct 26, 2006

Flu may not keep all at home

Flu may not keep all at home

Flu may not keep all at home

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/healthscience/stories/102606dnnatflu.3016c0d.html

[SIZE=+1]Poll reveals worries of job loss, lack of care in event of an outbreak

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[SIZE=-1]By LAURAN NEERGAARD / Associated Press

[/SIZE] WASHINGTON ? Ask Americans whether they would hole up at home to keep from spreading a super-strain of flu, and at first they pledge to cooperate.

But dig deeper, and doubts emerge:
? One in four adults says there would be no one to care for them at home if they got sick, raising the specter of Grandma gasping alone in bed or a single parent passed out while the children wail.
? Another one in four could not afford to miss work for even a week. Would they heed doctors' calls to stay home?
? And one in five fears the boss would insist they work even if they were ill and contagious.

So concludes a survey by Harvard researchers that will bring the concerns of average people into government deliberations on how to fight the next worldwide outbreak of a super-flu.

"This is really a Catch-22 here," said Robert Blendon, a health policy specialist at the Harvard School of Public Health. "If you can't help the people make it at home, then the epidemic's going to get much more severe."

He was to present the study today at a public health meeting.

Pandemics can strike when the easy-to-mutate flu virus shifts to a strain that people have never experienced. This has happened three times in the past century. Concern is rising that the Asian bird flu might trigger such a pandemic.

Old-fashioned infection control is one strategy to try to slow a pandemic's spread: staying home if you are sick or may have been exposed; closing schools and avoiding crowds.

It is far from clear how well such measures would work. So the government asked the Institute of Medicine to bring together health specialists, state and local officials and industry this week to talk.

Harvard's Dr. Blendon said he was pleasantly surprised that his survey of 1,697 adults suggests people are paying attention to pandemic discussions and are open to advice.

At least 94 percent said they would stay home, away from other people, for seven to 10 days if they had pandemic flu, and 85 percent would do so if a household member were sick. Equally high numbers said they would heed calls not to leave town during an outbreak.

People were mostly confident they could care for sick family members at home and find help with child care if schools closed for months at a time.
But as the survey probed more consequences of containment measures, people began to realize what hardships could await them.

Communities need to plan how to provide emergency in-home help for the millions who live alone, perhaps through properly trained charity groups.

Then there were practical survival issues. More than 40 percent of those surveyed said they would run out of diapers, baby formula or medications if they had to stay home for even a week.

Dr. Blendon said workplace worries were a major problem, too. Many people live paycheck to paycheck, and more than a quarter of respondents said they would lose a job or business if they had to stay home for seven to 10 days. Only one-third thought they would get paid if they didn't work.

The feedback is important as long as policymakers understand people act less rationally in a crisis, said Michael Osterholm, a public health professor at the University of Minnesota.

The Harvard phone poll, conducted Sept. 28 through Oct. 5 by ICR of Media, Pa., has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

SHINGLES VACCINE RECOMMENDED
An influential government advisory panel voted Wednesday to recommend routine shingles vaccination for adults age 60 and older. Recommendations by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices usually are accepted by federal health officials.

The disease: Shingles is caused by the varicella zoster virus, which also causes chickenpox. About 15 percent to 30 percent of people infected with the virus develop shingles later in life.

Background: The Food and Drug Administration licensed Zostavax, made by Merck & Co., in May. The vaccine is a souped-up version of Merck's chickenpox vaccine for children, with a live virus that is 14 times more potent.

Warning: Zostavax is not recommended for pregnant women, people with compromised immune systems or those with allergies to gelatin or other vaccine components.
Associated Press

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BF Survey Not All Americans Would Stay Home

T. ModestoPhD

In Memoriam

Snowy Owl

Retired in 2010, In Memoriam