Belgian virologist : swine flu will cause fewer deaths

[Gert van der Hoek]

Fewer deaths from swine flu

27/08

The outbreak of the swine flu this year likely will cause
in our country less flu deaths than other years. This predicts virologist Marc
Van Ranst.

Especially young victims

"Because many elderly people, who normally are the first victims of the flu,
more resistance against the swine flu (because this virus in the 1920s,
1930, 1940, 1950 also caused epidemics, eds), earlier this year are younger
people affected by the flu. The probability they die from the new flu, is a
much lower. "

Extra precautions

"With the increased attention to the Mexican flu, get these and other
flu much less likely. There is one good hand hygiene and sensitization around people
today get the flu, stay home more quickly. "

Better use of medicines

"Doctors have free antivirals, which they can directly administer
to people in risk categories. Even people with normal flu through which resources can help
become. Soon there will be a vaccine against ordinary flu and the swine flu. "

http://www.hbvl.be/nieuws/wetenschap/guid/1b72fc3b-1b86-4f32-847e-130df88623fe.aspx

 

[tropical]

Re: Belgian virologist : swine flu will cause fewer deaths

It is not easy to decide from which part to faster try to question the seemingly many suppositions of this article, if it represent the exact words.

Because of autocensuring I gived up in advance ...
joking


remarks on the text are based on publicly published scientific reports of experts, etc, about the actual state of the matter:

#1:
"The outbreak of the swine flu this year likely will cause
in our country less flu deaths than other years. This predicts ..."

Nobody can predict exactly, or semi-exactly what will happen anywhere, because the virus could stil change in worst.


"Because many elderly people, who normally are the first victims of the flu,
more resistance against the swine flu (because this virus in the 1920s,
1930, 1940, 1950 also caused epidemics, eds), earlier this year are younger
people affected by the flu. The probability they die from the new flu, is a
much lower."

The elderly seems much less infected, but when they became so, they have death outcomes also.
Because the pandemic flu vaccine will came maybe when the peak will be on already, and the elderly have lower immunity plus many have chronic illness, so they must receive adjuvanted vaccine, or 2 jab doses, which they wouldn't early, so the probability of the worst can't much lowering, because from the seasonal flu they are mainly shielded by the yearly seasonal flu vaccines which keep them more live.


"There is one good hand hygiene and sensitization around people "

The above can't spare us from the droplets inhalation, and the EU, nor many other states, nor WHO, didn't even recommend the coercitive use of any mask at workplaces, and public eye to eye gatherings.


""Doctors have free antivirals, which they can directly administer
to people in risk categories.""

That's depends which country is about, and they "can", but mostly wouldn't administer it in cases without hospitalization, or not enaugh early. And it is clinicaly, and eye vitness note (FT posts) that many moderate (or worst) cases starts several days with light symptoms (cough, etc, even without temp. some).
At the same time, there are public health statements that severe cases can surge up after 5-6 days of mild illness begining, in some cases.
So, such cases will not got Tamiflu/antivirals in the first 2 days, and thus, if after they worsen, they will have no antiviral options.


"Soon there will be a vaccine against ... the swine flu."

Soon compared to what, if it is supposed to gain the 2nd peak in mid october, and many needs 2 jabs, 3 weeks distanced?
So, not so soon, and not all who need it in time. Only if it vanish, or start the 2nd wave the next year.

Fewer deaths from swine flu

27/08

The outbreak of the swine flu this year likely will cause
in our country less flu deaths than other years. This predicts virologist Marc
Van Ranst.

Especially young victims

"Because many elderly people, who normally are the first victims of the flu,
more resistance against the swine flu (because this virus in the 1920s,
1930, 1940, 1950 also caused epidemics, eds), earlier this year are younger
people affected by the flu. The probability they die from the new flu, is a
much lower. "

Extra precautions

"With the increased attention to the Mexican flu, get these and other
flu much less likely. There is one good hand hygiene and sensitization around people
today get the flu, stay home more quickly. "

Better use of medicines

"Doctors have free antivirals, which they can directly administer
to people in risk categories. Even people with normal flu through which resources can help
become. Soon there will be a vaccine against ordinary flu and the swine flu. "

http://www.hbvl.be/nieuws/wetenschap/guid/1b72fc3b-1b86-4f32-847e-130df88623fe.aspx