AlaskaDenise
In Memoriam
It has to be asked why the death rate amongst swine flu patients in Bahrain has apparently been disproportionately so high, compared to elsewhere.
By last Thursday, Bahrain had reported its first three deaths from swine flu, all of which occurred within four days.
Bahrain health authorities are no longer publishing regular tallies of swine flu patients, but on August 25, they put the official figure at just 199, since the first case in mid-May.
So even if we assume that in those few weeks the number of cases has shot up to say 300 (which seems unlikely given the previous growth rate), the death rate so far amounts to one in every 100 patients.
Compare this to England, where as of Friday just gone, the death toll stood at 61, up from 57 the previous week. The death toll across the entire UK stood at 70 on the same day.
England is reporting 750 new cases of swine flu a day and over the last week reported 4,500 new diagnoses - massively down on the 100,000 cases a week being reported more than a month ago.
Medical chiefs in England are predicting a death rate of 0.1 per cent - or one in every 1,000 patients - and that's the "worst case scenario", which they say could result in 19,000 deaths.
A more realistic figure, they say, is 3,000 deaths, which would work out somewhere around one in every 6,000 patients.
Yet here in Bahrain we are witnessing a death rate of one in every 100 - unless the number of confirmed infections is much higher than authorities have been telling us.
This raises several questions, foremost of which is whether patients are getting the right treatment, early enough.
Secondly, since World Health Organisation experts and others have been warning since the beginning that the relatively mild H1N1 virus could mutate into a far more virulent form, is Bahrain a pocket for the deadlier version?
Or should we be looking at the state of public health here overall, with a high population of poor, under-nourished expatriate labourers, high numbers of illegals and massive incidences of diabetes and hereditary blood diseases such as sickle cell, amongst the local population?
This raises the further question of whether Bahrain is correctly tailoring its handling of swine flu and its potential impact to the specific nature of the pre-existing health situation amongst its population.
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=259004
By last Thursday, Bahrain had reported its first three deaths from swine flu, all of which occurred within four days.
Bahrain health authorities are no longer publishing regular tallies of swine flu patients, but on August 25, they put the official figure at just 199, since the first case in mid-May.
So even if we assume that in those few weeks the number of cases has shot up to say 300 (which seems unlikely given the previous growth rate), the death rate so far amounts to one in every 100 patients.
Compare this to England, where as of Friday just gone, the death toll stood at 61, up from 57 the previous week. The death toll across the entire UK stood at 70 on the same day.
England is reporting 750 new cases of swine flu a day and over the last week reported 4,500 new diagnoses - massively down on the 100,000 cases a week being reported more than a month ago.
Medical chiefs in England are predicting a death rate of 0.1 per cent - or one in every 1,000 patients - and that's the "worst case scenario", which they say could result in 19,000 deaths.
A more realistic figure, they say, is 3,000 deaths, which would work out somewhere around one in every 6,000 patients.
Yet here in Bahrain we are witnessing a death rate of one in every 100 - unless the number of confirmed infections is much higher than authorities have been telling us.
This raises several questions, foremost of which is whether patients are getting the right treatment, early enough.
Secondly, since World Health Organisation experts and others have been warning since the beginning that the relatively mild H1N1 virus could mutate into a far more virulent form, is Bahrain a pocket for the deadlier version?
Or should we be looking at the state of public health here overall, with a high population of poor, under-nourished expatriate labourers, high numbers of illegals and massive incidences of diabetes and hereditary blood diseases such as sickle cell, amongst the local population?
This raises the further question of whether Bahrain is correctly tailoring its handling of swine flu and its potential impact to the specific nature of the pre-existing health situation amongst its population.
http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=259004
