Avian influenza in China, the beginning of an epidemic ... by the media? (Professor Didier Raoult)

Pathfinder · Apr 15, 2013

Translation Google

Avian influenza in China, the beginning of an epidemic ... by the media?

The Point.fr - Published on 15/04/2013 at 16:11

Much ado about nothing ... The epidemic is not fatal, but some skilled riders have managed to sow panic in the world.

By Professor Didier Raoult

The new avian influenza (H7N9) emerging in China is to reboot the fear of animal influenza by a media epidemic. Let us remember that avian influenza caused by H5N1 brought a global madness at considerable cost.

First, because the first diagnosed cases were fatal, which often happens with new diseases, because only serious cases are diagnosed. Then, the WHO experts consulted, specialists in the field, had a major conflict of interest, because the interests of their work was to exaggerate the risk, although no virus H5 has never resulted in human to human transmission. Only H1, H2 and H3 have done it to date. Taking advantage of the psychosis, the vaccine industry has succeeded with terrified governments buying vaccines against an epidemic that did not exist. Alarmist books on the topic have been bestsellers, while proponents books on more moderate line were shunned.

This general excitement has generated monstrous research cost and the subject on risk of mutant viruses transmitted to humans that could escape from laboratories, has led to new regulations.

Nuclear war or preventing the flu?

Everything was under bad science fiction more than reality and led to the establishment in many countries - including France - plans to fight similar to a preparation for nuclear war instead of the prevention of flu. In the end, the real flu outbreak we experienced was of porcine origin, which is the most common link for the passage of a flu virus from animals to humans. This was the H1N1 flu in 2009.

Flu is a dangerous disease, and viruses crossing from animals to humans are unpredictable, but the probability of an avian influenza epidemic becoming a human pandemic remains low. This has never happened. Under these conditions, it is important to remain vigilant to identify the first confirmed cases of human transmission, but avoid falling into information overload, which is sometimes fueled by the greatest experts in the field in order to finance their laboratory.

Especially as psychosis around avian influenza has caused a disturbing alienation toward the vaccine against seasonal human influenza, which continues to kill every year .

http://www.lepoint.fr/invites-du-po...pidemie-mediatique-15-04-2013-1655245_445.php

Laidback Al · Apr 15, 2013

Re: Avian influenza in China, the beginning of an epidemic ... by the media? (Professor Didier Raoult)

While there is indeed hype in the media about the current outbreak of H7N9, Prof. Raoult does not clarify the issues and in fact the article contains some errors and misunderstandings.

no virus H5 has never resulted in human to human transmission

There have been 10+ human clusters of 2 or more confirmed human cases of H5N1, several of which resulted from H2H transmission.

. . . In the end, the real flu outbreak we experienced was of porcine origin, which is the most common link for the passage of a flu virus from animals to humans. This was the H1N1 flu in 2009.

The 1918 H1N1 pandemic virus was a partial descendent of an avian strain. While pigs continue to be a source for human influenza viruses, we should not discount the possibility of infection from other sources including birds. Nor should be discount the possibility of a pandemic from a coronavirus.

Dimissing the 2009 H1N1 pandemic as a nonsignificant pandemic because of the limited mortality and virulence implies that any future pandemic will be mild as well. When the 2009 pandemic broke out, there was no way of knowing how virulent it might or might not become. The world was exceptionally lucky that it was not worse. The next pandemic, whatever its source, could be much worse.

. . . the probability of an avian influenza epidemic becoming a human pandemic remains low.

This is another one of those arguments that, because it has not happened yet, it won?t happen in the future. What information does Prof. Raoult have that he thinks the probability is low for an avian influenza pandemic?

I am willing to accept that the English translation of this article is inaccurate and Prof. Raoult may have meant something else.
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w

unctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w

oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w

ontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]-->

Giuseppe · Apr 15, 2013

Re: Avian influenza in China, the beginning of an epidemic ... by the media? (Professor Didier Raoult)

The fact is that - historically - several influenza pandemics happened in the past centuries so that in the future it is almost certain that other viruses will emerge and spread into human population with different pattern of virulence and severity.

The big trouble in a overpopulated world, impoverished and without universal health care access, with limited resources and great interconnession between distinct geographical areas is to achieve a medical countermeasure able to limit the impact of an easily spreading respiratory pathogen.

To date, not having an enhanced spectrum anti-influenza vaccines, despite 1918, 57, 68, 76, 2009 pandemics, casts a grim shadow on the entire world safety.

dc_agar · Apr 15, 2013

Re: Avian influenza in China, the beginning of an epidemic ... by the media? (Professor Didier Raoult)

Pathfinder said:
Translation Google
...the probability of an avian influenza epidemic becoming a human pandemic remains low. This has never happened.

It could be said that the current microbial ecology has never happened either; 7+ billion humans breathing in one another's faces and continent-hopping via jet air travel. One of these microbes will indeed become the one that the world never, ever forgets. Maybe it's going to be H7, maybe something else. When it hits, you can slap your forehead in surprise if that's your thing. But the politics of managing the mistrust of the public afterwards could be worse than the germ. Understatements of the world's current state of risk are going to seem abysmally foolish in retrospect post-something. What's it going to be? We don't know. We're running without models.

Avian influenza in China, the beginning of an epidemic ... by the media? (Professor Didier Raoult)

Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator

Laidback Al

Well-known member

Giuseppe

Emeritus

dc_agar

Member