Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

[tropical]

"Australia's Flu Cases Surge in Nationwide Outbreak :
...It's not too late to vaccinate for this flu season and the vaccine covers the A strain."

What vaccine covers "this one" A "sub?" strain?
The WHO 2006/2007 trivalent vaccine, the new one WHO 2007/2008, or maybe no one?

Thank You!

 

[gsgs]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

probably both. Count 3 weeks until immunity builds up

http://www.health.gov.au/internet/wcms/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm

 

[HenryN]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

"Australia's Flu Cases Surge in Nationwide Outbreak :
...It's not too late to vaccinate for this flu season and the vaccine covers the A strain."

What vaccine covers "this one" A "sub?" strain?
The WHO 2006/2007 trivalent vaccine, the new one WHO 2007/2008, or maybe no one?

Thank You!

The tri-valent vaccine covers two type A serotypes (H3N2 and H1N1), so it covers seasonal flu in Australia (also covers influenza B).

 

[scottmcpherson]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

The two hemispheres got the same vaccine recipes. The 2006-07 flu seasonal formulation in the Northern Hemisphere is the same as the 2007 Southern Hempsihere cocktail; which I thought interesting at the time.

The question is, are the two subtypes in line with the WHO recommendations? Did they predict the Super Bowl teams back in March? Or did the viruses drift away from the WHO targets?

From previous reports, we know that 30% of the Aussie flu cases are H1N1, which leaves 70% as H3N2. So, we are right to ask, which one drifted furthest away Down Under? Recall also that this past season's B was not on target; news stories indicated about 67% of the US B cases were not a match for the WHO target, as seems to be the case in 2005-06 as well.

Below is straight from WHO.

(Northern)
The 2006--07 trivalent vaccine virus strains are A/New Caledonia/20/1999 (H1N1)-like, A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)-like, and B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like antigens. For the A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)-like antigen, manufacturers may use the antigenically equivalent A/Hiroshima/52/2005 virus; for the B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like antigen, manufacturers may use the antigenically equivalent B/Ohio/1/2005 virus (see Influenza Vaccine Composition).

(Southern)
an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus,
an A/Wisconsin/67/2005(H3N2)-like virus (A/Wisconsin/67/2005 and A/Hiroshima/52/2005 were used at the time),
a B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like virus

 

[Commonground]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

Interesting. So the Southern Hemisphere is following the North, as far as the vacinne goes. Hmmmm.

 

[tropical]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

Thank You all for your answers.

If the world vaccine are the same trivalent 2006, and if we connect a Mr. scottmcpherson comment:
"The question is, are the two subtypes in line with the WHO recommendations? Did they predict the Super Bowl teams back in March? Or did the viruses drift away from the WHO targets?",

and a today FluTracker news:
"Another Australian Woman Dies Quickly from Flu
Sunday, 19 August 2007
Aussie mother dies only two days after catching flu
BRISBANE: The influenza outbreak sweeping Australia has now claimed nine victims, including a Queensland woman who died just two days after showing the first symptoms.
...
The couple believed she had just caught a cold.
Mr Colburn said his wife's symptoms were of the deadly strain of influenza A - fever, lethargy and coughing.
...
her temperature was only 37.3
...
isn't this "quick death" from flu very unusual?,

than maybe we can start to think that in the meantime in Australia came up some new subtype drifted version of regular flu this year (one year after the production of the trivalent 2006 flu vaccine)?
There are no informations of the analysed substrains from the recent victims.
Maybe the informations are not for general public, or there is no different substrain?
But if it is, will it be implement for a new 2007 vaccine, or is "too late"?

Thank You!

 

[gsgs]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

here is a picture :

so the 2005 season was even worse, but 2007 isn't yet over, so this may become larger

 

[Niko]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

Thank You all for your answers.

**snipped**

than maybe we can start to think that in the meantime in Australia came up some new subtype drifted version of regular flu this year (one year after the production of the trivalent 2006 flu vaccine)?
There are no informations of the analysed substrains from the recent victims.
Maybe the informations are not for general public, or there is no different substrain?
But if it is, will it be implement for a new 2007 vaccine, or is "too late"?

Thank You!

For the USA, the short answer is no - don't know about other country's production. Per the CDC website....

Why are manufacturers and distributors taking a phased approach to vaccine distribution?
We wish that the nation's full supply of flu vaccine could be produced and distributed by the beginning of October of each year. But, given how flu vaccine is currently produced that is not possible. The influenza manufacturing process is complex. Influenza viruses vary from year to year, so influenza vaccine must be updated annually to include the viruses that are expected to circulate in the upcoming season. Once viruses are selected for the new vaccine, manufacturers must operate under a very tight timeline. Influenza vaccine production begins as early as 6-9 months before the beginning of vaccine distribution. Even with this early start, it isn't possible to complete the entire production and distribution process prior to the vaccination season, particularly given the limited number of influenza vaccine manufacturing plants that we have in the United States and the large number of doses that are required to be produced each year. Instead, influenza vaccine distribution takes place in a phased fashion over a number of months. It begins in late summer for some manufacturers and vaccine products and usually completes near the end of November or early in December. Unfortunately, this situation leaves doctors and other vaccine providers with uncertainty about when they can expect to receive their full order and makes it difficult for them to plan their vaccination activities. Manufacturers and distributors are working to try to get some vaccine to as many providers as possible as soon as possible so that they can begin vaccinating their patients. Getting some vaccine to all providers early in the season is important, because all providers serve at least some high-risk patients (such as people 50 years of age and older or those with chronic health conditions such as asthma, kidney disease, diabetes, lung disease and weakened immune system) and their household contacts.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/fluvaccine.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/fluvaccine.htm

 

[tropical]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

From:
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2007/08/reprise_flu_in_1951.php

"Reprise: flu in 1951"
Category: Bird flu ? Infectious disease
Posted on: August 22, 2007 7:20 AM, by revere

[Given our posts (here, here) on the particularly severe flu season in Australia, we thought it useful to remind ourselves that a bad flu season can be really bad -- worse than the 1918 pandemic in some locations. Here is a post we did back in April 2006 about an interesting paper (see link in post) by Cecile Viboud and her colleagues at NIH that looks at historical records on flu mortality. Flu is a bad disease, pandemic strain or not. Why some flu is worse than others we don't know.]

Originally posted Friday, April 7, 2006:

We talk frequently about the H5N1 virus mutating to a form transmissible between humans, although we acknowledge we don't know the factors that make that transmissibility possible. There is also the possibility that the virus, if mutated, will modify its current virulence. The case fatality rate (proportion) now is hovering around an extremely high 50%. However we don't understand the factors that affect these factors in any influenza sub-type, including the current seasonal variety, H3N2. Even within the yearly H3N2 seasons there is a four-fold variation in mortality.

We are now realizing that in some years there are extraordinary mortalities that exceed those seen in pandemics, including the pandemic of 1918. Our relative ignorance about these variations is emphasized dramatically in a fascinating paper in CDC's Emerging Infectious Disease journal by NIH's Cecile Viboud and her co-authors.

Viboud et al. detail a new investigation of the 1951 H1N1 epidemic:

Anecdotal accounts exist in the literature of historical influenza epidemics associated with unusual numbers of deaths, such as occurred in the 1951 epidemic in England in the midst of the first era of A/H1N1 viruses (1918 - 1957). In Liverpool, where the epidemic was said to originate, it was "the cause of the highest weekly death toll, apart from aerial bombardment, in the city's vital statistics records, since the great cholera epidemic of 1849". This weekly death toll even surpassed that of the 1918 influenza pandemic. (Viboud et al.; all cites omitted)
The authors compiled monthly pneumonia and influenza (P&I) and all-cause death numbers between 1950 and 1999 in Canada, England and Wales and the US and used additional data for Liverpool where the disease seemed particularly severe. Using the monthly data they fit seasonal variation in a 20 year span to be able to compare the 1951 epidemic with the 1957 and 1968 events, controlling for differences in population, healthcare and socioeconomic status, all factors that affect P&I deaths (age-adjustment and mortality in the summer of 1960 were used to adjust the seasonal estimates for this purpose). A shift toward younger age groups was used as a pandemic signature.

The results are striking:

Influenza activity started to increase in Liverpool, England, in late December 1950. The weekly death rate reached a peak in mid-January 1951 that was ~40% higher than the peak of the 1918-19 pandemic, reflecting a rapid and unprecedented increase in deaths, which lasted for ?5 weeks (see figure). Since the early 20th century, the geographic spread of influenza could be followed across England from the weekly influenza mortality statistics in the country's largest cities, which represented half of the British population. During January 1951, the epidemic spread within 2 to 3 weeks from Liverpool throughout the rest of the country.
For Canada, the first report of influenza illness came the third week of January from Grand Falls, Newfoundland. Within a week, the epidemic had reached the eastern provinces, and influenza subsequently spread rapidly westward.

For the United States, substantial increases in influenza illness and excess deaths were reported in New England from February to April 1951, at a level unprecedented since the severe 1943-44 influenza season. Much milder epidemics occurred later in the spring elsewhere in the country.

Local disparities were found in all 3 countries, with a consistent pattern of higher numbers of deaths in locations affected earlier. In England, influenza-related death rates were ~3-fold higher in Liverpool than in the rest of the country. In Canada, death rates were ~2.4-fold higher in the eastern seaboard provinces than in the rest of the country. Similarly, in the United States, rates were ~2.3-fold higher in New England than in the rest of the country.



Figure 1 from Viboud et al. paper: Liverpool P&I deaths (A) and all cause deaths (B)

In Canada this was the most severe influenza epidemic in the second half of the 20th century, including both pandemic years of 1957 and 1968, by a factor of 50% and 200 - 300%, respectively. Similar results were seen in England and Wales. In the US, by contrast, the flu season was mild, except in New England.

The suspicion that England and Wales and Canada may have experienced an epidemic with a novel sub-type was not confirmed by an examination of the age distribution, which was typical of interpandemic years. 1957 and 1968, by contrast, did exhibit the age shift thought to be a characteristic pandemic signature. The Canadian data for 1951, the only one where detailed age breakdowns were available, showed that the death rate in the younger age groups was almost as high as in the 1957 pandemic, but the death rate in the over 65 age group was double that of the 1957 pandemic. Thus the age distribution wasn't shifted to the younger age groups but markedly increased across the age groups. Additional analyses suggested it was not transmissibility that characterized the 1951 outbreak but the virulence of the virus, although data are not sufficient to establish this with certainty. The subtype circulating at the time was H1N1, the same subtype as the 1918 pandemic and the predominant seasonal form until the H2N2 pandemic of 1957.
But what about the markedly lower death rate in the US (except for New England)?

These disparities are in part explained by laboratory surveillance reports by WHO, indicating that 2 antigenically distinct influenza A/H1N1 strains cocirculated in the Northern Hemisphere during the 1951 epidemic. The so-called "Scandinavian strain" was isolated in northern Europe and associated with mild illnesses. By contrast, the "Liverpool strain" was associated with severe illnesses and high deaths in Great Britain, Canada, southern Europe, and Mediterranean countries . As both strains cocirculated in some countries, intrasubtypic cross-immunity might have existed, with these 2 strains competing for susceptible hosts.

No viral isolates or genetic sequences are available for the 1951 virus, so the source of the unusual virulence of the Liverpool strain remains unknown. This intriguing paper underlines once again how much we don't know. The elderly seemed to do relatively well in the pandemics of 1957 and 1968, but suffered disproportionately in the non-pandemic year of 1951 where they did worse than in two of the three 20th century pandemics in England, Wales and Canada and worse in Liverpool than in any pandemic, including 1918.

A well-known flu researcher said to me recently he thought he knew more about flu 20 years ago than he does now. With the publication of this paper, we might say we also know less about seasonal influenza now than we did last month.

 

[tropical]

Re: AUS: ProMED - The WHO will formally address the southern hemisphere experience

Re: AUS: ProMED - The WHO will formally address the southern hemisphere experience

From FluWiki 2007-08-27
"Influenza Activity, Southern Hemisphere (Link)
An ProMed-mail article:
http://www.promedmail.org/pls/prome..._BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,39004

Archive Number 20070826.2802
Published Date 26-AUG-2007
Subject PRO/EDR> Influenza activity, southern hemisphere


INFLUENZA ACTIVITY, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
*********************************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

Date: Thu 23 Aug 2007
Source: Eurosurveillance Weekly Release [edited]
<http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ew/2007/070823.asp#4>


Influenza activity in the southern hemisphere: a preliminary look at
the winter 2007 season
-----------------------------------------------
Human seasonal influenza occurs in the northern and southern
hemispheres in epidemics in the colder months of the year. These vary
annually in their mix of viruses (which constantly evolve), the
severity of the illness and the fit with the vaccine composition,
which is reviewed annually by the World Health Organization (WHO) for
each hemisphere [1]. Those in Europe responsible for influenza
prevention and recommending immunization for those at risk are always
interested in how severe the coming winter season will be. That
interest is highest in August and September, when preparations are
being made for immunization campaigns. One clue can come from the
severity of the winter epidemics in the southern hemisphere, which is
coming to an end at about that time.

There have been a few unusual and widely reported influenza cases in
some parts of the southern hemisphere this [2007] season [2]. In
Australia, several states have reported a higher number of cases this
winter, with Queensland and New South Wales particularly affected.
Six children under the age of 5 who contracted influenza A this year
have died; the cases were in Western Australia, Queensland and New
South Wales. The predominant strain circulating in Australia is
A(H3N2), although A(H1N1) has also been seen widely in some states.
The country has only experienced low levels of influenza B activity
this season.

In contrast, Chile has had a rise in cases from last year [2006], but
not as many as in 2004; incidence has also been falling since week 28
[3]. The regular vaccination campaign there targeting the elderly,
those with chronic diseases, public health workers, pregnant women,
infants and workers in the avian industry was launched in March 2007;
3.2 million doses were given. H3N2 has been the predominant strain in
Chile this season [2007]. This has also been the case in Argentina:
in week 20, 10 samples were characterized as A/Wisconsin/67/2005-like
(H3N2); in week 21, 7 samples were characterized as
A/Wisconsin/67/2005-like (H3N2); and in week 22, 11 samples were
characterized as A/Wisconsin/67/2005-like (H3N2) [4].

In equatorial regions (where influenza is less seasonal), the
experience was also unexceptional. In China, the Philippines,
Thailand and Malaysia, the predominant strain this season [2007] has
been A (H3N2), with A(H1N1) and B also present [4]. According to the
WHO's summary of seasonal influenza activity in the world, last
updated in March 2007, Hong Kong saw a high level of A(H3N2) activity
in weeks 8-11 [5].

Sri Lanka has seen a lot of A(H1N1) activity this season [2007],
while in Singapore, it has been the B virus that has been most
reported [3]. In contrast to Australia, New Zealand has been having a
relatively mild influenza season in 2007 so far, with a mix of
A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and some B viruses circulating [1]. South Africa,
which saw a peak of activity in weeks 29 and 30, has had both A and B
viruses in roughly equal proportions, with H1N1 viruses more common
than H3N2 so far [4].

In summary, therefore, apart from the unusual cases in children in
Australia, the 2007 influenza season in the southern hemisphere has
not been exceptional, either in the number of cases being reported or
the strains circulating [4]. Those strains that have been seen were
also seen in the northern hemisphere in its last season [2006], and
most of them are included in the current vaccine for the southern
hemisphere this season (an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus, an
A/Wisconsin/67/2005(H3N2)-like virus and a B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like
virus). As was seen in the northern hemisphere's 2006/07 season,
A(H3N2) strains in the southern hemisphere have not reacted well to
antiserum A/Wisconsin/67/2005 [4]. The WHO will formally address the
southern hemisphere experience in its coming regular consultation for
selection of vaccine strains [6].

References
---------
1) Nicholson KG, Wood JM, Zambon M. Influenza (seminar). Lancet 2003;
362: 1733-44.

2) Influenza season in 2007 for Australia and New Zealand, World
Health Organisation Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research
on Influenza, Melbourne, Australia. 13 Aug 2007. Available from:
<http://www.influenzacentre.org/index.htm>.

3) Situacion Influenza: Chile 2007. Ministry of Health, Chile.

4) Personal communication from the World Health Organization Global
Influenza Programme.

5) Seasonal influenza activity in the world, 2007. World Health
Organization. 29 Mar 2007. Available from:
<http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/update/en>.

6) Consultation on the Composition of Influenza Vaccine for the
Southern Hemisphere 2008, WHO. Available from:
<http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/vaccine_south2008/en/index.html>.

[Byline: the Editorial team, Eurosurveillance editorial office
<eurosurveillance@ecdc.europa.eu>]

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org>

[see also:
Influenza, seasonal - ACIP recommendations 2007 20070630.2102
Influenza, seasonal - Europe, USA 2006/2007 20070127.0363
Influenza, swine, human - USA (IA): November 2006 20070108.0077
Influenza A deaths, children - Australia (WA) 20070707.2168
Influenza A deaths, children - Australia (WA)(02) 20070721.2338
Influenza A virus - epitope database 20070104.0041
Influenza A viruses: genome sequences (03) 20070225.0685
Influenza B virus, neuraminidase inhibitor resistance 20070404.1143]
................................................cp/msp/dk

 

[tropical]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

From Irish.Examiner.com:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/irishe...m=ireland-qqqa=ireland-qqqid=41558-qqqx=1.asp

03 September 2007

Seasonal flu deaths close to ?pandemic levels?

By Paul Kelly
INFLUENZA experts yesterday claimed the death toll from seasonal flu is almost as high as if Ireland were in the grip of a pandemic.


Last year, about 3,500 deaths were attributed to flu or complications from the illness, yet the minimum number of people who would die in a mass outbreak is reckoned to be a mere 400 more at 3,900.

And following deaths of humans in the Far East from bird flu, the Health Service Executive (HSE) earlier this year estimated up to 58,000 people would die in Ireland if a pandemic swept the country. The ?best-case scenario? was 3,917 deaths.

Professor Graeme Laver, a worldwide authority on flu, said Ireland was preoccupied with a pandemic, but seemed to ignore the fact that routine flu was killing almost as many people.

Comparing Ireland?s population to that of Sydney in his native Australia, Prof Laver said 1,000 Irish people could die in just 35 days over winter from the flu.

?I don?t think many people would realise that 1,000 Irish people could die in the space of a month this winter and the deaths would be regarded as a simple case of seasonal flu, but that?s the fact,? he said.

?Pandemic has become a buzzword and people expect there will be a lot of warning when it comes, but in the meantime seasonal influenza is killing thousands without creating a ripple.?

Prof Laver was at Dublin?s Trinity College over the weekend where he addressed 150 Irish healthcare professionals at a ?flu summit?.

Honoured in Australia for his 40 years of research into influenza, he said more emphasis nationally needed to be put on seasonal flu.

Earlier this year the HSE published a dossier on a pandemic of flu, saying a mass outbreak was inevitable but difficult to predict.

Based on a six-stage World Health Organisation alert system, the planet is on the third most serious level after the discovery of a new strain of flu that has yet to spread widely.

?Pandemic publicity has made people more aware of the dangers of flu but we need to realise that flu is doing damage every year, not just in the year of pandemics,? the professor said.

He said the Irish authorities could reduce the ?hidden? death toll from seasonal flu by using antiviral medicine while sufferers should go to the doctor promptly for treatment.

He said: ?To do this, people must attend a GP within 24 hours of infection and preferably even sooner.?

The HSE said it would start an annual flu campaign next month to persuade vulnerable people to get vaccinated against the illness.

?We are fully preparing for the annual winter flu season,? said HSE spokesman Daniel English.
Click <A href="http://archives.tcm.ie/date/">here for irishexaminer.com stories before this date​

 

[tropical]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

Australia, Aug. 10-22, 2007.
extracts from Flu Wiki
Australia Flu Season - 2007
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1566
...<!-- Hotlist crap -->
Video: Medical centres struggle to cope with flu patients Transcript: <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
http://www.abc.net.a... <o></o>
KERRY O'BRIEN: The flu season of course, hits households across the country every winter, but 2007 is shaping up as a tough one. Officially, six children and one adult have died from flu this year, but the experts say the true toll is much more devastating with flu contributing to the deaths of hundreds of others, particularly the elderly, so far this winter. Hospital emergency centres and doctors' surgeries are struggling to cope with the influx of patients, prompting a call for urgent action to prevent further cases.

"Is this an unshakable fact?" - Harold Geneen, on Managing <o></o>

<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: anon.yyz @ Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 11:36:09 AM CDT<o></o>
<o></o>
Comments from some sick folks <o></o>
Here are some comments made on a news site in Australia concerning the flu. Most are saying it is taking two plus weeks to recover. One commenter said 5 coworkers who had gotten the vaccine had gotten sick anyway. <o></o>
http://blogs.news.co...<o></o>

<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: Okieman @ Mon Aug 20, 2007 at 19:43:02 PM CDT <o></o>
<o></o>
wife has flu <o></o>
my wife had her call from doctor tonight confirming diagnosis, - confirmed as flu - she is extremely ill, slept for three days straight, temp around 40 degrees Celsius, incessant cough, aches and pains, lethargy, asthma. I have had flu vaccine and perfectly fine - please to our brothers and sisters in the US, have your vaccinations - this seasonal flu is virulent and everywhere. Hospital emergency rooms are buckling under pressure. Prescriptions given to my wife include prodeine forte, antibiotics (we are still waiting for results on possible pneumonia)and prednisilone. <o></o>
Everybody is talking about flu epidemic here in South Australia. My sister is an immunization nurse and she is very busy doing vaccinations. CSL (drug co) is giving her free vaccinations for the disadvantaged, ie those who can not afford the injection.<o></o>

<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: Julian @ Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 06:51:02 AM CDT <o></o>

<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: you @ soon<o></o>
?<o></o>
partially collapsed lungs <o></o>
latest diagnosis is she has partially colaped lungs and may need to be hospitalized. I have never seen a flu like this.

<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: Julian @ Sat Aug 25, 2007 at 01:17:23 AM CDT <o></o>
[ Parent ] <o></o>
Several alarm bells are ringing for me. <o></o>
Health Care workers are usually under alot of pressure from their employers to be vaccinated (at least in Canada). If more fall ill, it is more certain that the vaccine isn't preventing illness. <o></o>
I still think the chief medical officer stating that the Tamiflu stockpile will be released (and then being over-ruled), plus the Aug 2 suggestion that Queenlanders wear masks out in public are the two things that set this aside as unusual for me. <o></o>
It is "something", but what exactly?<o></o>

<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: Jody @ Fri Aug 17, 2007 at 19:20:55 PM CDT<o></o>
<o></o>
Yet to peak <o></o>
Comment: Good article, worth reading <o></o>
Flu season yet to peak: specialists <o></o>
The virulent strain of influenza sweeping Australia this winter is likely to claim more lives before it burns out, a flu specialist has warned. <o></o>
[snip] <o></o>
"This year seems to be different and more severe than we've seen in a while," said Prof MacIntyre, a senior researcher at the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance. <o></o>
"And the numbers are still yet to peak. It's certainly possible, and maybe even likely, that more people, even healthy people, could die. <o></o>
[snip] <o></o>
Most infections have been linked to two different strains of influenza A. Both circulate each year but this season the strain known as H3N2 has been most virulent, and was behind the complication-related deaths of three Western Australian children. <o></o>
The other strain, called H1N1, has been linked to 30 per cent of cases, and is believed to be responsible for the other two child deaths in Victoria and Queensland. <o></o>
[snip] <o></o>
Prof MacIntyre said each strain mutates a little each season, with small, subtle changes in severity that can "surprise" the immune system in un-immunised people. <o></o>
"Influenza is fluid and changing, and sometimes these small changes, as we're seeing now, make a virus spread and cause a lot more death and sickness than other viruses," she said. <o></o>
Professor Anne Kelso, director of the Melbourne-based World Health Organisation Influenza Centre, said NSW, Queensland and Western Australia were all recording unusually high flu numbers. <o></o>
However, detailed lab tests on this year's strains had not found anything "particularly nasty" to cause alarm, she said. <o></o>
"What we've got is a bit of flu and tragic deaths but no sign yet that something particularly unusual is going on," Prof Kelso said. <o></o>
[snip] <o></o>
http://www.theage.co...<o></o>

<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>
by: Okieman @ Fri Aug 10, 2007 at 07:40:07 AM CDT <o></o>
<o></o>

<HR align=left width="50%" SIZE=2>

 

[tropical]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

From "Flu Wiki":
CO: Visiting Nurse Association Begins Receiving Flu Vaccine and Prepares for Severe Flu Season
http://www.newswiret... Denver, CO, United States, 09/10/2007

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1661


...
"Based on the severity of Australia's flu season, we anticipate that this year's flu season will be more severe than last year's. Plus, confirmed flu cases in Hawaii indicate that the season is beginning much sooner than last year," said Mimi Allen, community wellness division manager at the Visiting Nurse Association.

 

[tropical]

Re: Australia:"...the vaccine covers the A strain..."?

"Flu Wiki", September 11, 2007 12:00am:
From: "Herald Sun", Australia

Australia: $219m stockpile at risk - experts
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22403637-662,00.html

THE Commonwealth is not properly managing its stockpile of anti-viral drugs, a damning new government audit has found.
The Australian National Audit Office has examined federal preparations for an influenza pandemic and found faults with both the management of the medical stockpile and arrangements to distribute the drugs in an emergency.
The Federal Government owns $219.7 million worth of anti-viral drugs and medical equipment for use during a health emergency.

But the audit office's report released today found the health department had bought the drugs in a hurry in response to international events including the September 11, 2001 terror attacks in the US, SARS and the Asian avian influenza outbreak, and had not made plans to look after such a large stockpile.

The department was only checking invoices to make sure drugs were delivered, instead of physically making sure the stock had arrived.

Irregular stocktakes, the first of which was not held until June 2006, would not show whether any shortages were due to the drugs being stolen or just not delivered.

And although the department was monitoring the quantity of drugs in its stockpile, it did not have a plan to make sure they were being properly managed, including "reporting on goods that are due to expire".

Contracts with storage managers, meanwhile, did not specify storage requirements, such as pest control, cleaning and security arrangements.

"When procuring items for the stockpile, (the health department) did not adequately assess the ongoing resource requirements to procure and manage the stockpile," the report said.

"(The department) did not develop a comprehensive implementation strategy for the establishment and ongoing management of the stockpile.

"The stockpile continues to increase in size, and as components are ageing, decisions will be needed in relation to future strategies for the stockpile."

State and territory governments would distribute the drugs in an emergency, but most had not updated their deployment plans since writing draft forms in 2004 and 2005.

The health department had not reviewed the plans, or followed up with the states.

The report also found taxpayers may have paid too much for the drugs and their storage, because the health department had not followed its normal purchasing procedures.

The prices charged for storage did not necessarily equate with the quality of storage being provided, and the health department was found to be paying almost $100,000 too much to keep 100 pallets with one poor-value supplier.

The health department has agreed to the audit office's recommendations, including its call for a management plan.

- AAP