http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=163847
World may have averted bird flu pandemic
Sunday Nov 19 12:20 AEDT
A bird flu pandemic may have already been averted by large-scale chicken culls and containment of infection, Australia's chief medical officer John Horvath says.
But he warns the nation must be prepared, regardless, for the spread of a deadly influenza strain that has the potential to spread rapidly from human to human.
A new report sets out Australia's latest preparations for a possible outbreak of influenza, including vaccine development, infection control and the crucial role of doctors in helping to contain the spread.
The bird flu virus H5N1, which has spread from chickens to humans in Asia and killed about 200 people, is seen as the biggest current pandemic threat.
But while it has three of the four elements needed to cause a pandemic - it can infect humans, cause severe disease and there is little immunity to it - it apparently cannot transmit efficiently from human to human.
"It may be that the world has already averted an influenza pandemic by actions it has taken in response to H5N1, such as extensive culling of poultry and isolation of infected humans," Prof Horvath wrote in the Medical Journal of Australia.
"Yet all preparations may seem insufficient if the world comes face to face with a rapidly spreading novel (influenza) virus like the one that emerged in 1918."
The world had changed since previous pandemics, he warned, with faster and cheaper international travel, and more densely populated countries potentially making it easier for disease to spread.
"Economies are more interdependent and many businesses, including medical practices, operate on a 'just in time' basis for delivery of essential supplies."
Nonetheless, governments and communities were better prepared than ever, Prof Horvath said.
Writing in the same federal government sponsored report, leading Melbourne immunologist Peter Doherty said some kind of pandemic outbreak was a certainty in the future.
However, the research community was divided over whether the H5N1 virus would be the one to spread rapidly, said Prof Doherty, from the University of Melbourne.
Some believed it would only cross over occasionally, with disastrous consequences for individuals, while another school believed it was just one or two mutations away from establishing itself in people.
"There's the quandary: the potential threat has horrific proportions but it is not clear whether anything will actually happen," he wrote.
"There are also fears that the virus could mutate to defeat newly-developed vaccines, currently in human trials, or anti-viral drugs stockpiled as part of the federal government's $600 million pandemic plan.
"Even if we duck the bullet this time, the effort and resources expended here will have ensured that our capacity to deal with an unexpected invader is enhanced," Prof Doherty said.
World may have averted bird flu pandemic
Sunday Nov 19 12:20 AEDT
A bird flu pandemic may have already been averted by large-scale chicken culls and containment of infection, Australia's chief medical officer John Horvath says.
But he warns the nation must be prepared, regardless, for the spread of a deadly influenza strain that has the potential to spread rapidly from human to human.
A new report sets out Australia's latest preparations for a possible outbreak of influenza, including vaccine development, infection control and the crucial role of doctors in helping to contain the spread.
The bird flu virus H5N1, which has spread from chickens to humans in Asia and killed about 200 people, is seen as the biggest current pandemic threat.
But while it has three of the four elements needed to cause a pandemic - it can infect humans, cause severe disease and there is little immunity to it - it apparently cannot transmit efficiently from human to human.
"It may be that the world has already averted an influenza pandemic by actions it has taken in response to H5N1, such as extensive culling of poultry and isolation of infected humans," Prof Horvath wrote in the Medical Journal of Australia.
"Yet all preparations may seem insufficient if the world comes face to face with a rapidly spreading novel (influenza) virus like the one that emerged in 1918."
The world had changed since previous pandemics, he warned, with faster and cheaper international travel, and more densely populated countries potentially making it easier for disease to spread.
"Economies are more interdependent and many businesses, including medical practices, operate on a 'just in time' basis for delivery of essential supplies."
Nonetheless, governments and communities were better prepared than ever, Prof Horvath said.
Writing in the same federal government sponsored report, leading Melbourne immunologist Peter Doherty said some kind of pandemic outbreak was a certainty in the future.
However, the research community was divided over whether the H5N1 virus would be the one to spread rapidly, said Prof Doherty, from the University of Melbourne.
Some believed it would only cross over occasionally, with disastrous consequences for individuals, while another school believed it was just one or two mutations away from establishing itself in people.
"There's the quandary: the potential threat has horrific proportions but it is not clear whether anything will actually happen," he wrote.
"There are also fears that the virus could mutate to defeat newly-developed vaccines, currently in human trials, or anti-viral drugs stockpiled as part of the federal government's $600 million pandemic plan.
"Even if we duck the bullet this time, the effort and resources expended here will have ensured that our capacity to deal with an unexpected invader is enhanced," Prof Doherty said.
