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Source: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23549047-1702,00.html
No sign yet of deadly flu virus
By Tamara McLean
April 16, 2008 03:06pm
Article from: AAP
THERE are early signs we will be spared the deadly flu epidemic that swept the country last year, a senior virologist says.
Bill Rawlinson, head of virology at Prince of Wales Hospital in Sydney, said specialists were hopeful the severe 2007 influenza season, in which six children died, would not be repeated this winter.
"It's difficult to predict at this early stage but there's hope it will be less severe because often the severe and less severe seasons alternate year-on, year-off," Professor Rawlinson said.
"On top of this, we've had no outbreaks or any other indicators early on that suggest it's going to be bad which is a pretty good sign."
Last year's flu season was the worst since 2003 because of two widely circulating virulent strains of influenza A, H3N2 and H1N1.
Children died in Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland.
Dr Ian Barr, deputy director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, said a lack of early outbreaks was not necessarily a good sign.
"There wasn't any sign in April or May last year that things were going to get bad and they did so we can't be sure," Dr Barr said.
He said it also was possible for flu to hit hard two seasons in a row, as it did in 1997 and 1998.
Severity would largely depend on weather, particularly humidity levels, this winter, as well as the effectiveness and uptake of the flu vaccine, which is best taken in April and May.
The jabs, which are between 50 and 90 per cent effective depending on the year, are recommended for the elderly and people with chronic illness.
Dr Barr said the effectiveness of anti-viral medications will also play a role, with indications from Europe that one particular strain, H1N1, was showing resistance to a frontline drug, Tamiflu.
"We need to keep an eye on whether this strain comes up here because it may mean that Tamiflu is not the best choice to treat it."
New research co-authored by Dr Barr and published in the international journal Science today revealed the life cycle of the deadly H3 viruses.
"We've confirmed what people have though for many years," Dr Barr said.
"These viruses do mainly come out of South-East Asia and circulate around to Australia and the Pacific to Europe quite rapidly, then on to the US and South America where they die off."
No sign yet of deadly flu virus
By Tamara McLean
April 16, 2008 03:06pm
Article from: AAP
THERE are early signs we will be spared the deadly flu epidemic that swept the country last year, a senior virologist says.
Bill Rawlinson, head of virology at Prince of Wales Hospital in Sydney, said specialists were hopeful the severe 2007 influenza season, in which six children died, would not be repeated this winter.
"It's difficult to predict at this early stage but there's hope it will be less severe because often the severe and less severe seasons alternate year-on, year-off," Professor Rawlinson said.
"On top of this, we've had no outbreaks or any other indicators early on that suggest it's going to be bad which is a pretty good sign."
Last year's flu season was the worst since 2003 because of two widely circulating virulent strains of influenza A, H3N2 and H1N1.
Children died in Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland.
Dr Ian Barr, deputy director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, said a lack of early outbreaks was not necessarily a good sign.
"There wasn't any sign in April or May last year that things were going to get bad and they did so we can't be sure," Dr Barr said.
He said it also was possible for flu to hit hard two seasons in a row, as it did in 1997 and 1998.
Severity would largely depend on weather, particularly humidity levels, this winter, as well as the effectiveness and uptake of the flu vaccine, which is best taken in April and May.
The jabs, which are between 50 and 90 per cent effective depending on the year, are recommended for the elderly and people with chronic illness.
Dr Barr said the effectiveness of anti-viral medications will also play a role, with indications from Europe that one particular strain, H1N1, was showing resistance to a frontline drug, Tamiflu.
"We need to keep an eye on whether this strain comes up here because it may mean that Tamiflu is not the best choice to treat it."
New research co-authored by Dr Barr and published in the international journal Science today revealed the life cycle of the deadly H3 viruses.
"We've confirmed what people have though for many years," Dr Barr said.
"These viruses do mainly come out of South-East Asia and circulate around to Australia and the Pacific to Europe quite rapidly, then on to the US and South America where they die off."