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AU: Swine flu here a long time

Shiloh

Editor, Senior Moderator
Source: http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25667728-661,00.html

Swine flu here a long time
Grant McArthur

June 22, 2009 12:00am

SWINE flu was running rampant through Melbourne's northern suburbs before it was even revealed as a major threat in Mexico, Victoria's health officials and top investigators now believe.

Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory director Dr Mike Catton said it was likely an overseas traveller brought swine flu to Victoria before the Mexican outbreak gained international attention in late April.

But because the strain was less severe than first feared, infected Melburnians did not associate their mild symptoms with the Mexican outbreak and never presented for testing - unknowingly spreading the disease through the community unabated.

When the first case was detected here on May 20, Dr Catton said the "amplifier effect" began, where people suffering minor symptoms came forward for testing who may otherwise not have even bothered seeing a doctor.

Dr Catton said one of the reasons Victoria had such a high incidence of the virus was its early importation to Melbourne before international recognition of the Mexican outbreak, and subsequent low-level transmission in the northern suburbs for some time before the first case was diagnosed.

Victorian acting chief health officer Dr Rosemary Lester also said swine flu was probably entrenched before it was even acknowledged outside Mexico.

"It may be that someone came into Victoria from overseas in late April, early May, suffering from a very, very mild form of H1N1, enabling it to spread undetected in the community," she said.

"If the virus was more severe, this would have been detected earlier."

Due to the strength of Victoria's contact testing, Dr Lester said, many cases had been revealed, which might have been ignored in other parts of the world.

"So in some ways Victoria has been a victim of its own testing success. By this I mean we have a very thorough testing system for all infectious diseases, and are at the forefront of detecting swine flu in the community," Dr Lester said.
 
Re: AU: Swine flu here a long time

"So in some ways Victoria has been a victim of its own testing success. By this I mean we have a very thorough testing system for all infectious diseases, and are at the forefront of detecting swine flu in the community," Dr Lester said.
That's a unique way of looking at it.
 
Re: AU: Swine flu here a long time

That's a unique way of looking at it.
But it is absolutely correct and H1N1 is also wideapread in Europe, but the testing is largely limited to travelers, as the community spread is ignored.

That is why Pandmeic flu appears to be exploding in Asia. It has been there for quite awhile and was found accidentally during contact tracing of infected travelers. These accidental findings lead to more testing and more detection.

Pandemic H1N1 was a Pandmeic MONTHS ago, and the delay of the phase 6 announcement was solely dependent on the lack of testing in Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australia (no science required).
 
Re: AU: Swine flu here a long time

It was in southern California in March.

I had symptoms in January that would now be identified with swine flu, but I have extensive contact with people from all over Latin and South America, and the Middle East. At the time, I thought I had just picked up some kind of nasty upper GI infection and fever, but I suspect now that it was flu. Laid me low for weeks. So the idea that it's been circulating around the world since long before it came to public attention doesn't surprise me at all.
 
Re: AU: Swine flu here a long time

that strain is no longer being detected.
Most public viruses around , including Victoria
are from the Cancun-New York lineage. ---edit---except the one sample from Perth
So they could have been introduced from Cancun
travelers in late April, as was done in Sacramento,Georgia,Bavaria,
Scotland,Canada,Ohio,...
 
Re: AU: Swine flu here a long time

I'd like to broach a very important topic (maybe this needs it's own thread) that has significant implications for spread and avoidance. The following is from the May 28th CDC telebriefing:
Anne Schuchat :"So it's possible that with additional testing and studies, these attack rates will be adjusted upwards, from what we've seen, once we understand who is exposed and infected, but not ill. What we call the asymptomatic attack rate."

I have not heard anything more on this topic at all from anywhere.
We have heard a lot about shedding virus prior to symptoms, but surely folks running around shedding virus without ever appearing sick is a much easier explanation for community transmission even when everyone is following the rules!
 
Re: AU: Swine flu here a long time

Be or not to be early cases previously, they did not drive any early measure or info, but maybe in inner researcher's circles.
I don't think it could be only light or mild, without severe cases also.

Here at FT there were many threads/posts about strange early cases.
There were sporadic deadly cases in Aussi/... which resembles the "healthy fast death" patern (signaled by FluWiki, etc.), and the official publishings said near nothing.

Questioning the exact strain these people had, was burried first by weeks of "waiting results", than atributed to atypical outcomes of existing seasonal strains there.

When wroted about an extremely strange surge of many cases of atypical pneumonias without temperature, or alternating temp., a half year ago, there were no answers what is that precisely, nor there were any releases about or measures taken by the WHO "sentinel teams" worldwide.

So, maybe it was started early, but without to became an outbreak which could start the pandemic, and such retrospective claimings from researchers who had than the possibility to locate it precisely by lab tests from the victims, seems to me more a shield to explain why no strong preventive action were taken when it was obvious that there are an pandemic going on (for them with their "sentinel teams", at least the begining of April).

There were the strange outbreaks of atypical pneumonias in Russians camps, later "vanished", and the China/Russia train episode.
No special researchers releases of an early pandemic.

So, or they already were mute for months without make any, even the simpler health preparedness, and silenced all, or the real injection of the pandemic starts eventualy few months prior.

To said that we are in a pandemic a year or so, it is foging.
 
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