tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Appl Netw Sci
. 2020;5(1):93.
doi: 10.1007/s41109-020-00336-5. Epub 2020 Nov 25.
Heterogeneity in SIR epidemics modeling: superspreaders and herd immunity
Istvan Szapudi[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Deterministic epidemic models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, are immensely useful even if they lack the nuance and complexity of social contacts at the heart of network science modeling. Here we present a simple modification of the SIR equations to include the heterogeneity of social connection networks. A typical power-law model of social interactions from network science reproduces the observation that individuals with a high number of contacts, "hubs" or "superspreaders", can become the primary conduits for transmission. Conversely, once the tail of the distribution is saturated, herd immunity sets in at a smaller overall recovered fraction than in the analogous SIR model. The new dynamical equations suggest that cutting off the tail of the social connection distribution, i.e., stopping superspreaders, is an efficient non-pharmaceutical intervention to slow the spread of a pandemic, such as the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Keywords: COVID-19; Disease dynamics; Epidemiology; Herd immunity; Network science; SIR equations; Superspreaders.
. 2020;5(1):93.
doi: 10.1007/s41109-020-00336-5. Epub 2020 Nov 25.
Heterogeneity in SIR epidemics modeling: superspreaders and herd immunity
Istvan Szapudi[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33251328
- PMCID: PMC7686947
- DOI: 10.1007/s41109-020-00336-5
Abstract
Deterministic epidemic models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, are immensely useful even if they lack the nuance and complexity of social contacts at the heart of network science modeling. Here we present a simple modification of the SIR equations to include the heterogeneity of social connection networks. A typical power-law model of social interactions from network science reproduces the observation that individuals with a high number of contacts, "hubs" or "superspreaders", can become the primary conduits for transmission. Conversely, once the tail of the distribution is saturated, herd immunity sets in at a smaller overall recovered fraction than in the analogous SIR model. The new dynamical equations suggest that cutting off the tail of the social connection distribution, i.e., stopping superspreaders, is an efficient non-pharmaceutical intervention to slow the spread of a pandemic, such as the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Keywords: COVID-19; Disease dynamics; Epidemiology; Herd immunity; Network science; SIR equations; Superspreaders.