An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

[Jeremy]

I do not want to get off on a rant here....

However, there seems to be a major disconnect between what the general public is being told on when a vaccine will be available versus the timeframe of when the second wave will hit.

In article after article we see government official after government official tell the public that there will be X number of doses of vaccine available by Y.

In the United States, the X in the above equation is currently 45 million doses and the Y is Mid October. However, from both the historical evidence from 1918 and 1957 as well as all the current data on H1N1 2009 it would appear that we are on a timeframe in which the first vaccine shot will be available either slightly before the peak, during the peak, or after the peak.



While the evidence for this is rather obvious there seems to be NO discussion of this for the general public.

What is being discussed is the shifting timelines, how people will get the vaccine shots, and who should get the vaccine shot. However, there isn't even a peep about whether or not a vaccine will be completely worthless because it won't be available in time.

In my opinion, this discussion, and an honest one at that, needs to be put forth in front of the public. Because right now, based on the current situation a shot in Mid-October is too little, too late.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

Or a more accurate chart might be this one.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

Hi Jeremie,

I understand and sympathize but can we talk about this when talking about arsenic regions because of mining or forestry activities you face Big Corps that do not want to face future liabilities because of their activities.

How can we talk about Baxter vaccines after we know that they have shipped kilos of live H5N1 virus all over the world.

How can we say to the American people that if things go bad, most of the suppliers of vaccines are not in US and they will first take care of their own citizens.

How can we say that everybody in the loop knew about this delay months ago, how can we talk about the adjuvants effects on children, on Tamiflu effects on chidren and adults and Advil dangerous effects on H1N1 infected persons.

I could go on like that for hours so what is the solution if you want to reduce morbidity and mortality. Do not forget that all the above statements are duly corroborated by Peer Review Scientists.

What we are going trough is magistral, huge and the drivers are sadly not there to reduce morbidity and mortality but they are there to make money and get more power (again all duly corroborated).

We are captives of a situation that we do not control that we cannot control.

If we push too much what cannot be said will be silence,

How can we reduce morbisdty and mortality without irritating these Powerfull Corps and Individuals,

That is the Question

Snowy Owl

Snowy,

I believe that all of those issues are moot if you have a vaccine that provides immunity in November when you have a pandemic wave peaking in October.

The discussion, in my opinion, shouldn't be about the vaccine, because the vaccine isn't going to be there in time to help anyone.

Therefore, the discussion should be about what people should and can do to protect themselves in lue of a vaccine.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

Both of you are correct.

The bottom line is that we are on our own - really.

This is why we have stressed washing hands, social distancing, school closures, personal pandemic stockpiles, alternative treatments.......

And mostly we have stressed the human spirit. Reach out to your near ones for mutual support.

Even if the governments were 100% efficient and timely, they can not help the entire populations in a major disease outbreak.

We need to depend on ourselves.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

Both of you are correct.

The bottom line is that we are on our own - really.

This is why we have stressed washing hands, social distancing, schools closures, personal pandemic stockpiles, alternative treatments.......

And mostly we have stressed the human spirit. Reach out to your near ones for mutual support.

Even if the governments were 100% efficient and timely, they can not help the entire populations in a major disease outbreak.

We need to depend on ourselves.

Florida1,

I couldn't agree with you more. I just wish the message you just said, as well as the timeline and lack of a timely vaccine will make their way into the public discourse within the next 2-3 weeks.

Sometimes I feel like people are afraid to admit that they can't do it. It is as if there is a collective belief that come hell or high water we are going to have a vaccine, regardless if it will do any good or be available in time.

However, all the data is staring people in the face. In the press, there is too much focus on when the vaccine will be available when there really needs to be a focus on when people should expect this wave to peak.

 

[littlebird]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

I completely agree Jeremy, I think it's somehow related to the physics of "waiting" to give Tamiflu (or other antivirals) until you know the individual is going to be critically ill. When everybody knows that by then, you've missed that window of opportunity for anti-virals to work.

Obviously they don't have a clue who is going to elicit that adverse immune response ahead of time, and they pretty much know that there's no way to vaccinate everyone on this planet who needs it. They're just going through the motions of acting like they're doing something about a situation that's out of our control.

Hell, we can't even make enough seasonal flu vaccine every year without running short!

It's time to "hunker down" (sorry, it's hurricane season, and I couldn't resist using the weather channel's favorite verb!) LOL.

 

[GennieF]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

Perhaps the media has been told to downplay the swine flu so as not to instill panic? I know I have seen similar warnings to the media in at least one other country, I believe it was India. That is the only reason I could see them keeping people in the dark, so as not to cause panic, looting, etc.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

Perhaps the media has been told to downplay the swine flu so as not to instill panic? I know I have seen similar warnings to the media in at least one other country, I believe it was India. That is the only reason I could see them keeping people in the dark, so as not to cause panic, looting, etc.

Personally, I believe that by telling people that there will be a vaccine, and then pulling the rug out from under them can create anger, which can lead to panic.

Furthermore, if we are hitting the peak when those first vaccines arrive, will the people that rush out to get them be calm and orderly. What happens when they run out at a location? Furthermore, if we are in the peak and they have vaccine, won't more people potentially be exposed by going to a central location to get vaccinated?

I think being honest with the public, at least in the United States, is the best way to go (I cannot speak to other cultures or how other people react to situations, but I prefer honesty with all peoples). People can handle it if you tell them "there won't be a vaccine in time for the second wave therefore you must prepare for that" as opposed to telling them that in 5 weeks when the wave is accelerating.

Like I said, the data to support these claims exist...what is lacking is this discussion coming in news reports and msm.

 

[wotan]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

Personally, I believe that by telling people that there will be a vaccine, and then pulling the rug out from under them can create anger, which can lead to panic.

Furthermore, if we are hitting the peak when those first vaccines arrive, will the people that rush out to get them be calm and orderly. What happens when they run out at a location? Furthermore, if we are in the peak and they have vaccine, won't more people potentially be exposed by going to a central location to get vaccinated?

I think being honest with the public, at least in the United States, is the best way to go. People can handle it if you tell them "there won't be a vaccine in time for the second wave therefore you must prepare for that" as opposed to telling them that in 5 weeks when the wave is accelerating.

Go look at Fema's track record with getting basic supplies (water/ice) to hurricane victims in large metropolitan areas, going all the way back to Andrew. The response of people at distribution centers might just mimic what will happen in a severe wave when the vaccine runs out.

 

[JimO]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

I don't know a lot about how the two-stage vaccine works, but it sounds like it monkeys with the immune response, so I wonder what will happen to all the people who get the first vaccine and then get exposed before the second.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

Go look at Fema's track record with getting basic supplies (water/ice) to hurricane victims in large metropolitan areas, going all the way back to Andrew. The response of people at distribution centers might just mimic what will happen in a severe wave when the vaccine runs out.

Agreed. So if you aren't going to have a vaccine in time, why even bother talking about it....

It is like talking about a Unicorn...as if it is real.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

I don't know a lot about how the two-stage vaccine works, but it sounds like it monkeys with the immune response, so I wonder what will happen to all the people who get the first vaccine and then get exposed before the second.

The first shot doesn't provide enough of an immune response so they give you a second booster shot 3 weeks later to get the appropriate response. However, you still need another week or 2 till that second booster shot gives you the immune response you need.

And those people that get exposed in between shot 1 and shot 2...they might get sick, who knows how sick. It could be worse for them....I don't have any data either way on it yet.

That being said, trying to run Flu Clinics in the middle of the Second Wave would be the epitome of stupidity.

 

[sbrooks]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

you have a great site; wish I'd discovered it 3 years ago...

being from the midwest, Cincinnati Ohio specifically, we generally have
flu season a little later than october, I can remember flu hitting schools
in Jan Feb in the past...I don't know if this is normal with the midwest
but could the October spike from 1918 be regional? So then, of course
a vaccine could be very helpful to the midwest if we don't get hit until later..

also I posted about almost being one of the 800 "healthy adult" vaccine guinea pigs here two weeks ago but it was removed for some reason..I read the paperwork and the 17 pg release form for the Sofia Pasteaur vaccine
but got cold feet


A concerned citizen

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

On May 6th FluTrackers made this a sticky in the H1N1 forum:

There will be no vaccine for these influenza strains this year for the majority of the world's population.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=102938

It is still true.

Why has no one funded a conference to discuss Dr. Fedson's idea of the possible use of commonly available drugs in the treatment of pandemic influenza?

Unless the pandemic strains stay mild (H1N1) or semi-limited (H5N1) we could really need a good alternative to a vaccine.

6.3 billion people in the world.

Where is the next Michelangelo going be from? Pasteur? Salk?

Who are we to judge?

We could lose entire cultures in a high case fatality rate pandemic.

Does anyone care?

Really.....?

Who are we?

 

[Jeremy]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

you have a great site; wish I'd discovered it 3 years ago...

being from the midwest, Cincinnati Ohio specifically, we generally have
flu season a little later than october, I can remember flu hitting schools
in Jan Feb in the past...I don't know if this is normal with the midwest
but could the October spike from 1918 be regional? So then, of course
a vaccine could be very helpful to the midwest if we don't get hit until later..

also I posted about almost being one of the 800 "healthy adult" vaccine guinea pigs here two weeks ago but it was removed for some reason..I read the paperwork and the 17 pg release form for the Sofia Pasteaur vaccine
but got cold feet


A concerned citizen

sbrooks,

In 1918, the wave pretty much hit everywhere the same time, give or take a week or two. The issue with this flu is that there is no herd immunity so it spreads like wildfire. So for example, while NYC might peak around October 20, you might not peak till October 27th or Nov 4th. Regardless, you would need the peak to push out to the 3rd week of November to have any real impact and 1918 and 1957 peaked in October and this year seems be following the same trend. Furthermore, with modern travel being what it is today, that tends to reduce any chance to spreading the timeline out in terms of geographic location.

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

Thank you Jeremy for your Humanitarian side I tough Miss Seb ellius had a word on vaccines.

Snowy

 

[wdcare]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

CBS news had a report about the vaccine shortage today:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GG3Xc5jK9kI

(There is a brief commercial first.)

 

[colormyquilt]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

The discussion, in my opinion, shouldn't be about the vaccine, because the vaccine isn't going to be there in time to help anyone.
Therefore, the discussion should be about what people should and can do to protect themselves in lue of a vaccine.

Jeremy. You are to be commended for opening this thread. For this can be, and in some respects should be, a frightening conversation.

When reading Dr. Rugby's post re: several counties near LA, California from a few days ago, his posting states 25% unemployment. So, at minimum, 25% without insurance. Proactive prevention, including prepping, should be the message now.
How realistic is it to even suppose a fair and equitable portion of meds/ vaccines would even reach these communities in a timely manner- when inadequate medical care is modus operandi and prevention to reach deep into these communities would stretch even the limits of being able to provide that minimal care. How many hospitals in just these counties, with how many isolation beds available, with how many ventilators and ECMO's available? It beings to mind the book, And the Band Played On. It begs the question: how many hundreds of communities will be sitting in "this mess" come an October peak. And we are hoping for an October peak.

And then, how far and how fast from this perimeter will the need grow for prevention and medicines and vaccines in a timely manner? It is unbelievable that the US is announcing now they will be short 75 million doses of vaccine immediately and there is minimal to no public response. Even more devastating, there is minimal to no awareness.

For many, it is probably very difficult to imagine a scene from 1918- with the deaths, the violent deaths. In city after city after city. Without a vaccine in a timely manner, how far away are we really from 1918?

Any solution must include immediate release of information so as to inform all those just like you and me as to what is expected, why it is expected, and what can and should be done immediately to prepare. Nothing is lost by preparing, by getting foods/ water/ and more. Nothing is lost by obtaining medications, planning for home- schooling.

It is difficult to imagine how our society could maintain should we encounter an event similar to 1918. It is difficult to imagine how our society could maintain should the severity reach only the intensity of multiple Katrinas across the US.

"Silence is the voice of complicity."

 

[SagamoreJames]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

I'm a little bit confused about the wave peak. We are still having H1N1 right now, and isn't flu usually gone? Why is it going straight through the summer?

I know that the vaccine will come too late for many people, but many people are still catching the flu December-March right? Maybe it will help some people (?) I got a letter from the board of health (I live in Massachusetts) about the upcoming H1N1 vaccine clinics because I am on the list of volunteers. One of the possible volunteer jobs listed is "security." So I guess they are preparing for the worst case public reaction.

 

[Jeremy]

Re: An Honest Vaccine Discussion with the Public

I'm a little bit confused about the wave peak. We are still having H1N1 right now, and isn't flu usually gone? Why is it going straight through the summer?

I know that the vaccine will come too late for many people, but many people are still catching the flu December-March right? Maybe it will help some people (?) I got a letter from the board of health (I live in Massachusetts) about the upcoming H1N1 vaccine clinics because I am on the list of volunteers. One of the possible volunteer jobs listed is "security." So I guess they are preparing for the worst case public reaction.

SagamoreJames,

Yes we are still having H1N1 right now, mostly low volume and sporatic camp outbreaks (now since shools are back get ready for the real outbreaks). Furthermore, yes there normally isn't as much flu going around during the summer (it really is never gone per say..). It is going straight through the summer because there is no herd immunity (some seniors have immunity) in the population and Pandemic Influenza follows a different timeline than Seasonal Influenza.

In regards to the vaccine. Based on past data, 90% of the deaths in 1918 and 1957 occured during the second wave around September - November of the corresponding year. Hence you can deduce that also during that time there were the highest number of cases as well. So all this talk about the vaccine is moot because the majority of people that will be infected will have been infected by the end of November, which is roughly the same time that immunity will have been gained from shots in Mid-October and early November. This is not to say that there won't be follow on waves early the next year which the current H1N1 vaccine being created might or might not protect against (the virus in early 2010 could very well drift away from the vaccine being planned in late 2009). So it might or might not help some (minority) of people, but only those that don't get infected in the fall.

In regards to vaccine clinic's. If we are peaking in Mid-Late October, the idea of running vaccine clinics is, in my humble opinion, the worst idea since Clear Pepsi.