tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Arch Bronconeumol. 2014 Oct 3. pii: S0300-2896(14)00326-3. doi: 10.1016/j.arbres.2014.07.009. [Epub ahead of print]
An Estimate of the Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness During the Influenza Pandemic of 2009.
[Article in English, Spanish]
Bellido-Blasco JB1, Pardo-Serrano F2, Ballester-Rodr?guez I3, Arnedo-Pena A3, Tirado-Balaguer MD2, Romeu-Garc?a MA4, Silvestre-Silvestre E4, Meseguer-Ferrer N4, Herrero-Carot C4, Cayl?-Buqueres JA5.
Author information
Abstract
INTRODUCTION:
The influenza pandemic of 2009 had a great social impact. Many health resources were devoted to the care, prevention and surveillance of this disease. Epidemiological surveillance is based on the reporting of cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) and confirmed influenza cases. The objective was to estimate the true incidence of ILI during the influenza pandemic of 2009.
METHODS:
The capture-recapture method was applied during the month of highest influenza incidence in Castell?n. Two notification systems were used: (i)electronic reporting of Notifiable Diseases (ND), and (ii)laboratory-based (LAB) data collection. Estimates were made by stratifying by age group and week. Independence coefficients were calculated for those strata.
RESULTS:
No dependence was found between stratification variables and the reporting system. A total of 7,181 ND cases and 524 LAB cases were identified, of which 211 were recorded in both systems. The estimated total of cases was 17,785 in a single month. In the study period, almost 4% of people in the area suffered flu symptoms (cumulative incidence), with 1% being affected each day (daily prevalence). The sensitivity of the ND system was 40%, i.e., the percentage of patients seeking primary care.
CONCLUSIONS:
To obtain an estimate of the actual incidence of influenza-like illness in the population during a pandemic period, the number of medical consultations should be multiplied by a factor of 2.5. This factor is lower than that estimated for periods without pandemic alert.
Copyright ? 2014 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS:
Captura-recaptura; Capture-recapture; Estimaci?n; Estimation; Gripe; Incidence; Incidencia; Influenza; Influenza pandemic; Influenza-like syndrome; Pandemia de gripe; S?ndrome gripal
PMID:
25287416
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25287416
An Estimate of the Incidence of Influenza-Like Illness During the Influenza Pandemic of 2009.
[Article in English, Spanish]
Bellido-Blasco JB1, Pardo-Serrano F2, Ballester-Rodr?guez I3, Arnedo-Pena A3, Tirado-Balaguer MD2, Romeu-Garc?a MA4, Silvestre-Silvestre E4, Meseguer-Ferrer N4, Herrero-Carot C4, Cayl?-Buqueres JA5.
Author information
Abstract
INTRODUCTION:
The influenza pandemic of 2009 had a great social impact. Many health resources were devoted to the care, prevention and surveillance of this disease. Epidemiological surveillance is based on the reporting of cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) and confirmed influenza cases. The objective was to estimate the true incidence of ILI during the influenza pandemic of 2009.
METHODS:
The capture-recapture method was applied during the month of highest influenza incidence in Castell?n. Two notification systems were used: (i)electronic reporting of Notifiable Diseases (ND), and (ii)laboratory-based (LAB) data collection. Estimates were made by stratifying by age group and week. Independence coefficients were calculated for those strata.
RESULTS:
No dependence was found between stratification variables and the reporting system. A total of 7,181 ND cases and 524 LAB cases were identified, of which 211 were recorded in both systems. The estimated total of cases was 17,785 in a single month. In the study period, almost 4% of people in the area suffered flu symptoms (cumulative incidence), with 1% being affected each day (daily prevalence). The sensitivity of the ND system was 40%, i.e., the percentage of patients seeking primary care.
CONCLUSIONS:
To obtain an estimate of the actual incidence of influenza-like illness in the population during a pandemic period, the number of medical consultations should be multiplied by a factor of 2.5. This factor is lower than that estimated for periods without pandemic alert.
Copyright ? 2014 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS:
Captura-recaptura; Capture-recapture; Estimaci?n; Estimation; Gripe; Incidence; Incidencia; Influenza; Influenza pandemic; Influenza-like syndrome; Pandemia de gripe; S?ndrome gripal
PMID:
25287416
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25287416