Giuseppe
Emeritus
[Source: American Journal of Preventive Medicine, full text: (LINK). Abstract, edited.]
American Journal of Preventive Medicine - Volume 42, Issue 6 , Pages 563-570, June 2012
Obesity and Severe Obesity Forecasts Through 2030
Eric A. Finkelstein, PhD, MHA, Health Services and Systems Research Program, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Olga A. Khavjou, MA, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, Hope Thompson, BA, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, Justin G. Trogdon, PhD, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, Liping Pan, MD, MPH, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia, Bettylou Sherry, PhD, RD, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia, William Dietz, MD, PhD, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia
Address correspondence to: Justin G. Trogdon, PhD, Research Economist, RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park NC 27709
Abstract
Background
Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off.
Purpose
This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used to simulate the savings that could be achieved through modestly successful obesity prevention efforts.
Methods
The study was conducted in 2009?2010 and used data from the 1990 through 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The analysis sample included nonpregnant adults aged ≥18 years. The individual-level BRFSS variables were supplemented with state-level variables from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association, and the Census of Retail Trade. Future obesity and severe obesity prevalence were estimated through regression modeling by projecting trends in explanatory variables expected to influence obesity prevalence.
Results
Linear time trend forecasts suggest that by 2030, 51% of the population will be obese. The model estimates a much lower obesity prevalence of 42% and severe obesity prevalence of 11%. If obesity were to remain at 2010 levels, the combined savings in medical expenditures over the next 2 decades would be $549.5 billion.
Conclusions
The study estimates a 33% increase in obesity prevalence and a 130% increase in severe obesity prevalence over the next 2 decades. If these forecasts prove accurate, this will further hinder efforts for healthcare cost containment.
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American Journal of Preventive Medicine - Volume 42, Issue 6 , Pages 563-570, June 2012
Obesity and Severe Obesity Forecasts Through 2030
Eric A. Finkelstein, PhD, MHA, Health Services and Systems Research Program, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Olga A. Khavjou, MA, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, Hope Thompson, BA, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, Justin G. Trogdon, PhD, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, Liping Pan, MD, MPH, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia, Bettylou Sherry, PhD, RD, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia, William Dietz, MD, PhD, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia
Address correspondence to: Justin G. Trogdon, PhD, Research Economist, RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park NC 27709
Abstract
Background
Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off.
Purpose
This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used to simulate the savings that could be achieved through modestly successful obesity prevention efforts.
Methods
The study was conducted in 2009?2010 and used data from the 1990 through 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The analysis sample included nonpregnant adults aged ≥18 years. The individual-level BRFSS variables were supplemented with state-level variables from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association, and the Census of Retail Trade. Future obesity and severe obesity prevalence were estimated through regression modeling by projecting trends in explanatory variables expected to influence obesity prevalence.
Results
Linear time trend forecasts suggest that by 2030, 51% of the population will be obese. The model estimates a much lower obesity prevalence of 42% and severe obesity prevalence of 11%. If obesity were to remain at 2010 levels, the combined savings in medical expenditures over the next 2 decades would be $549.5 billion.
Conclusions
The study estimates a 33% increase in obesity prevalence and a 130% increase in severe obesity prevalence over the next 2 decades. If these forecasts prove accurate, this will further hinder efforts for healthcare cost containment.
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