Alpha B.1.1.7 Variant of COVID19 coronavirus thread

[sharon sanders]

A must watch.

No one can predict the future but be forewarned.

 

[sharon sanders]

more groan...I hope I am really screwing up the math.....

I saw a media article a couple of days ago where doctors were complaining that the age group was younger so I thought I would check it out.

from National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) who says their sources are official government numbers from various countries. link

According to their excel spreadsheets:


COVID-19 deaths weeks 1 through 38 (2020) in the UK in age group 44-64 = 5,049 / 38 weeks = 133 average deaths in the 44-64 age group per week

COVID-19 deaths week 1 (2021) in the UK, with the emergence of B.1.1.7, in age group 44-64 = 657 deaths in the 44-64 age group for week 1.

https://dc-covid.site.ined.fr/en/data/uk

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A comment from JJackson from another thread...

Yesterday, 01:19 PM

Sharon while the deaths you quoted look bad it is due to there being a lot more COVID cases now than then.

Rejigging the math - In the first 38 weeks the UK was averaging just under 10,000 cases a week giving a death per case of about 1.4%. In week 1 of this year it was about 385,000 cases giving 0.17% i.e. you were 8 times as likely to die in early 2020 than you are now.
What this does not fully cover is any change it the ratio between the 45-64 and other age groups as I only had the total cases data not the numbers by age group for the two time periods.
(I extracted the data from Worldometers.com )

 

[sharon sanders]

I agree with JJackson and this is why I did not represent that the difference of 133 and 657 is a 5X increase in deaths. It is not. Also - most of last year's cases did not occur in deep winter, and as a new disease, treatments were less refined.

 

[kiwibird]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...t-reveals.html

People infected with Kent coronavirus variant are MORE likely to get symptoms than those who catch older strains, ONS report reveals – but they are less likely to lose smell and taste

• People infected with the Kent coronavirus variant are more likely to get symptoms than those with older strain
• Figures showed that 19 per cent of those who tested positive with UK variant had a loss of smell and taste
• No 10 last week revealed there is some evidence the Kent strain could be more deadly than other versions
• .....
• The Kent strain now makes up around 60 per cent of all cases in England, according to separate ONS testing figures.

 

[kiwibird]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55828952

Schools in England will not be able to open after the half-term break next month but could begin to return from 8 March, the prime minister has said.

Boris Johnson said a final decision would depend on meeting vaccination targets and schools would get two weeks' notice.

 

[kiwibird]

also... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-55829709

Hotel quarantine for some travellers entering UK

Hotel quarantine for some travellers entering UK
Close
Boris Johnson has announced new quarantine measures that will apply to passengers arriving in the UK from 22 countries.

The PM said anyone who could not be refused entry to the UK, travelling from nations including Portugal and South Africa, would have to isolate for 10 days in government-provide accommodation "without exception".

 

[Mary Wilson]

Increased Cases COVID Variant B.1.1.7

FEBRUARY 01, 2021
NEWS RELEASE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

Feb. 1, 2021

COVID-19 Variant Cases Increase in Georgia

Atlanta – The Georgia Department of Public Health (DPH) is confirming there are now 19 cases of COVID-19 variant B.1.1.7 identified in Georgia. This is the same variant discovered in the U.K. and in several other countries and U.S. states. So far, no other COVID-19 variants have been identified in Georgia.

The B.1.1.7 cases in Georgia are in individuals ages 15 to 61, eight males and 11 females. The cases live in metro Atlanta – Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fulton, Gwinnett, and Paulding counties. DPH is working to identify close contacts of the individuals, and will monitor them closely.

The Georgia Public Health Laboratory and several commercial labs are working to identify the presence of this variant in hundreds of specimens collected at Georgia testing locations statewide, but that is only a small percentage of the overall number of COVID-19 tests performed. ...

https://dph.georgia.gov/press-releases/2021-02-01/increased-cases-covid-variant-b117