Alaska storm to produce ?historic? hurricane-like conditions

AlaskaDenise · Nov 8, 2011

This storm will have greater impact on seaside communities, because global climate change has reduced the extent of the sea ice that would normally lessen the severity of storm waves. These communities are supplied only by air.
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A ferocious, dangerous storm in the north Pacific is on a collision course with the west coast of Alaska. Referred to as the ?Bering Sea Superstorm? by the National Weather Service Office in Fairbanks (NWS), damaging winds, severe beach erosion and major coastal flooding are expected. In some locations, heavy snow and blizzard conditions are also forecast.

?This will be one of the most severe Bering Sea storms on record,? the NWS wrote today.

The storm is predicted to deepen at an incredible rate, with its central pressure crashing from 973 mb this morning to 945-950 mb tonight.

?This storm has the potential to produce widespread damage,? the NWS in Fairbanks said.

Sustained winds of 80 mph (with gusts to 90 mph in some locations) may impact an area the size of Colorado with offshore waves to more than 40 feet according to the NWS Facebook page. A storm surge of 8 to 10 feet is predicted along the coast. The combination of wind, waves, and high sea levels will create many hazards as described by the NWS in a Special Weather Statement:

THE HIGH SEA LEVELS COMBINED WITH HIGH WAVES WILL PRODUCE SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF NORTON SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF NORTON SOUND. STRONG WINDS AND WAVE ACTION MAY PUSH ICE IN NORTON BAY ON SHORE.

Blinding snow is another big concern. NWS cautioned:

THE STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA.

A direct hit is forecast for Nome, Alaska where the conditions will resemble a snow hurricane. Sustained winds of 45-60 mph (with higher gusts) and 8-14 inches of snow are forecast along with a storm surge as high as 8 feet early Wednesday evening (local time) at the coast. The NWS likens the storm to the November 11-12, 1974 storm which is the strongest in that city?s 113 years of records.

?Major differences between the 1974 storm and this upcoming storm include the fact that tides were much greater in the 1974 storm,? NWS said. ?However, sea ice extent is currently much lower than it was in 1974, thus providing no protection along the coast and greater fetch.?

Additional resources: Coastal flood warning | Special Weather Statement | Winter Storm Warning | National Weather Service Alaska region | Dangerous storm threatens coastal villages of Alaska (Climate Central)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ne-conditions/2011/11/08/gIQAaiqy0M_blog.html

AlaskaDenise · Nov 8, 2011

Re: Alaska storm to produce ?historic? hurricane-like conditions

Dangerous Storm Threatens Coastal Villages of Alaska

By Andrew Freedman

48-hour NWS forecast of winds and waves in the North Pacific and Bering Strait. Note the large waves (bright colors) and strong winds (black arrows) predicted for Western Alaska.

A storm that the National Weather Service is calling "one of the most severe Bering Sea storms on record" is approaching the western Alaska coastline, threatening to unleash winds of up to 80 miles per hour tonight and Wednesday, along with a storm surge that could inflict heavy damage on the state's isolated coastal villages. That's more damage: many of these villages have already suffered coastal erosion in recent years ? erosion that has been linked to global climate change.

"Major coastal flooding with severe beach erosion is expected along the coast from Cape Krusenstern to Point Hope. This storm will have severe impact on the village of Kivalina," the Weather Service stated on its website. "Sustained wind speeds as high as 60 mph with gusts to 80 mph are expected. Storm surge along parts of the Chukchi Coast may be as much as six feet."

(see this photo of coastal village in original aritlce - it is an island that is a completely sea level - hopefully they've evacuated)

An aerial view of the village of Kivalina, Alaska. Credit: flickr/US Coast Guard.

Alaska is experiencing greater climate change-related impacts than other parts of the country because it's located so far north, where the climate is warming much faster than average. One major consequence of climate change in Alaska has been increasing damage to coastal villages from the fall storms that typically roll in from the Bering Sea at this time of year. This particular storm is unusually intense for a storm in the Bering Sea, however, and is being compared to an event that last took place in the 1970s.

Typically, the presence of sea ice can help dampen waves and storm surge and prevent significant damage to coastal communities. However, as sea ice has decreased in the Spring and taken longer to reform in the Fall, these villages have seen more damaging storms due to battering waves. Villagers in Shishmaref, located on an island just off the coast, are seeking funds to relocate their community several miles to the south, in a more secure location. The village has been inhabited at its present location for about 4,000 years.

Here's what the 2008 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment said about Shismaref's increasingly tenuous situation:

Rising temperatures are causing a reduction in sea ice and thawing of permafrost along the coast. Reduced sea ice allows higher storm surges to reach the shore and the thawing permafrost makes the shoreline more vulnerable to erosion, undermining the town's homes, water system, and other infrastructure.

The problem of coastal erosion has become increasingly serious in Shishmaref in recent years. Over a dozen houses have already had to be moved further from the sea. The 600 residents have watched as one end of their village has been eaten away, losing as much as 15 meters of land overnight in a single storm. The absence of sea ice also deprives the residents of their means of traveling to the mainland to hunt moose and caribou, as they would normally do by early November. Nowadays, the inlet is open water in the autumn...

Over the last 40 years, villagers estimate that they have lost hundreds of square meters of land. Robert Iyatunguk, erosion coordinator for the village, explains that the retreat of the sea ice is leaving the village more vulnerable to increasingly violent weather. ?The storms are getting more frequent, the winds are getting stronger, the water is getting higher, and it's noticeable to everyone in town. If we get 12-14 foot [~4-meter] waves, this place is going to get wiped out in a matter of hours. We're in panic mode because of how much ground we're losing. If our airport gets flooded out, there goes our evacuation by plane.

The current forecast calls for waves as high as 20 feet in the Chukchi Sea, although Shishmaref may see lower wave heights than that.

Here's some important information relayed to me by Dave Snider, a broadcast meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Anchorage:

Forecasters in the office say there are usually 5-6 big storms that reach this strength each year. It seems unusual that this storm is so far North and powerful over the Bering, which they refer to as the storm graveyard. The storm track has primarily been over the West Pacific, along and South of the Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska since this summer
.

For this storm, the focus is on the long Southwest fetch and the very large swatch of tropical storm and hurricane force winds.

Hurricane Force Wind Warnings are posted for most of the Bering though Tuesday-Tuesday night in some cases.

Coastal flooding will also be a major issue for the Norton Sound region (including Nome).

Coastal Ice

At this point, it's not shore-fast. However, the flooding could still occur... and in some cases, might be worse with massive ice shoves. The shore-fast ice doesn't dampen the ocean swells. The ice piles up and moves ashore.

Watching the storm

Data is sparse to non existent on the ocean. We can use scatterometer winds (when we have the data available). But as far as buoys go, there's about 1.

And in weather like this, some in the office wonder if it will still be there in a few days.

Perspective

Keep in mind, that the majority of Western Alaska isn't well off. Many villages exist through subsistence. And some villages don't have plumbing. It's a whole different world outside of Anchorage.

http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/dangerous-storm-threatens-coastal-villages-of-alaska/

Emily · Nov 9, 2011

Re: Alaska storm to produce ?historic? hurricane-like conditions

(Kivalina is the community that recently had huge amounts of novel orange fungus spores wash ashore.)

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016719929_alaskastorm09.html

Originally published November 8, 2011 at 8:17 PM | Page modified November 8, 2011 at 10:37 PM
Trawler rescued in Bering Sea as epic storm nears

The U.S. Coast Guard came to the rescue of a Seattle-based fishing trawler in the Bering Sea on Tuesday as a storm with hurricane-force winds and 40-foot waves moved rapidly toward the western Alaskan coastline.

By Jeff Hodson and Hal Bernton
[snip]
"It's pretty ominous looking, and the waves are getting bigger," said AnnMarie Rudstrom, a teacher in the village of Brevig Mission, 70 miles north of Nome....

(Brevig Mission is where samples of lung tissue from a victims of the 1918 pandemic flu were collected.)

Here's current conditions for Nome.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PAOM.html

Pathfinder · Nov 9, 2011

Re: Alaska storm to produce ?historic? hurricane-like conditions

A major Bering Sea Storm is bearing down on Western Alaska with a mix of strong winds, high seas, blizzard conditions and major coastal flooding. Warnings and forecasts for Western and Northwest Alaska can be found here. Warnings and forecasts for Aleutian and Pribilof Islands here and Southwest Alaska here An additional resource for total water level estimations for some western Alaska communities can be found here.
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FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING." name="PKZ141" sig="YP"></map><table class="optionblock" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="optionhead"><td class="optionhead" width="100%">Southcentral </td><td class="optionoff">Southwest </td><td class="optionoff">Bering </td><td class="optionoff">Alaska </td><td class="optionoff">Anchorage </td></tr><tr><td class="optionmain" colspan="5" nowrap="nowrap"><center><table><tbody><tr align="center" valign="top"><td colspan="5" align="center">

Image updated Wed Nov 9 5:05:10 AKST 2011
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Pathfinder · Nov 9, 2011

Re: Alaska storm to produce ?historic? hurricane-like conditions

Kyle Hopkins

@adn_kylehopkins Anchorage
Kyle Hopkins is a reporter for the Anchorage Daily News
http://www.adn.com/thevillage

Twitter updates:
http://twitter.com/#!/adn_kylehopkins

Nome Web Cam:
http://www.visitnomealaska.com/nome-web-cam.html

AlaskaDenise · Nov 9, 2011

Re: Alaska storm to produce ?historic? hurricane-like conditions

Here are a twitter's videos from his apt. near Main Street, Nome:

http://www.twitvid.com/3Q9QN

In some news reports, the storm is being referred to as a "Snowicane".

The tides will be exceptionally high this afternoon, so that will allow the big waves to put more water into coastal communities.

.

AlaskaDenise · Nov 10, 2011

Re: Alaska storm to produce ?historic? hurricane-like conditions

The area covered by this storm, especially the more northern part, is where oil companies are due to start drilling for oil next year. This is also the area that some fish species are moving into as the southern waters warm. The area currently provides half of the US seafood catch (pollock, salmon, halibut, & crab) and 1/3 of Russia's.

Interesting article about the changing fishery issues in that area:
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/05/protecting-fish-ahead-of-the-big-melt/

Article about various oil leases in the storm area:
http://www.oceansnorth.org/us-oil-gas-activities

.

Alaska storm to produce ?historic? hurricane-like conditions

AlaskaDenise

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AlaskaDenise

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Pathfinder

Editor, Senior Moderator

Pathfinder

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AlaskaDenise

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AlaskaDenise

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