tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Theor Popul Biol. 2011 Dec 22. [Epub ahead of print]
Age profile of immunity to influenza: Effect of original antigenic sin.
Kucharski AJ, Gog JR.
Abstract
When multiple infections are possible during an individual's lifetime, such as with influenza, a host's history of infection and immunity will determine the result of future exposures. In turn, the suite of varying individual infection histories will shape the population level dynamics of the disease. Exploring the consequences of precisely how immunity is acquired using mathematical models has proven challenging though: if n strains have circulated previously, there are 2
different combinations of past infection to consider. However, by using an age-structured mathematical model of a disease with multiple strains, we can examine the population immune profile without having to explicitly keep track of all possible infection histories. This creates an easily manageable framework that is flexible enough to incorporate a wide variety of assumptions about immune acquisition on disease behaviour, making it possible to observe previously unknown consequences of long term immunity assumptions. In particular, we see that 'original antigenic sin' can lead to reduced immunity in some age groups: these immune blind spots could be responsible for the unexpectedly high severity of certain past influenza epidemics.
Copyright ? 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
PMID:
22209755
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22209755
Age profile of immunity to influenza: Effect of original antigenic sin.
Kucharski AJ, Gog JR.
Abstract
When multiple infections are possible during an individual's lifetime, such as with influenza, a host's history of infection and immunity will determine the result of future exposures. In turn, the suite of varying individual infection histories will shape the population level dynamics of the disease. Exploring the consequences of precisely how immunity is acquired using mathematical models has proven challenging though: if n strains have circulated previously, there are 2
different combinations of past infection to consider. However, by using an age-structured mathematical model of a disease with multiple strains, we can examine the population immune profile without having to explicitly keep track of all possible infection histories. This creates an easily manageable framework that is flexible enough to incorporate a wide variety of assumptions about immune acquisition on disease behaviour, making it possible to observe previously unknown consequences of long term immunity assumptions. In particular, we see that 'original antigenic sin' can lead to reduced immunity in some age groups: these immune blind spots could be responsible for the unexpectedly high severity of certain past influenza epidemics.Copyright ? 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
PMID:
22209755
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22209755