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Age distribution of NZ cases, travel history and time sequence for 23 Mar - 13 Apr.

New Zealand situation for 13 April 2020.

Summary is:

Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand106415
Number of probable cases2854
Number of confirmed and probable cases134919
Number of cases in hospital151
Number of recovered cases54675
Number of deaths51
Of our hospitalised cases 4 are in ICU and one is critical. Today we had a further death, the third from a cluster in an aged care facility.

The graph of domestic cases has definitely started to flatten now, but that is in combination with lower testing numbers, so that may change in the next few days. However it may be that testing is slowing because fewer people are symptomatic. The next few days will tell.

Surprisingly the Unassigned cases are not just recent cases but also going back as far as the end of February. This suggests there is more significance to this group than is evident from the column heading in the data set as one would think the international travel status of a person could be determined quite quickly.

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New Zealand situation for 14 April 2020.

Summary is:
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand10728
Number of probable cases2949
Number of confirmed and probable cases136617
Number of cases in hospital150
Number of recovered cases62882
Number of deaths94

Of our hospitalised cases 3 are in ICU and one is critical. Today we had a further 4 deaths, three from the cluster associated with an aged care facility where yesterday's death happened and one in Wellington from a different cluster associated with an event pre -lockdown.

The group of deaths associated with the aged care facility happened in a group of residents moved moved to hospital preemptively when an infection was identified there some time ago.

All deaths were people over 70 with existing conditions.

There is now a definite flattening of the domestic cases, but we have also seen a large reduction in daily testing over Easter which may explain this and there may be a jump later in the week. This is a common pattern with people seeking medical services less during public holidays.


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New Zealand situation for 15 April 2020.

Summary is:
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand10786
Number of probable cases20814
Number of confirmed and probable cases138620
Number of cases in hospital13-2
Number of recovered cases728100
Number of deaths90


Of our hospitalised cases 3 are in ICU and two are critical. Today our domestic cases passed our overseas cases for the first time. The curve is definitely flattening and all most all new cases are associated with existing clusters which indicates very limited community spread.

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New Zealand situation for 16 April 2020.

Summary is:
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand10846
Number of probable cases3179
Number of confirmed and probable cases140115
Number of cases in hospital12-1
Number of recovered cases77042
Number of deaths90


Of our hospitalised cases 3 are in ICU and two are critical.

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New Zealand situation for 17 April 2020.

Summary is:
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand10862
Number of probable cases3236
Number of confirmed and probable cases14098
Number of cases in hospital142
Number of recovered cases81646
Number of deaths112

Of our hospitalised cases 3 are in ICU and two are critical. Today we had a further two deaths, again elderly residents of aged care facilities.

With only 2 new cases, both in established clusters, it seems the situation is coming under control. The Government is currently preparing for a possible move from total lockdown to extensive restrictions, thus allowing many businesses to resume operations, albeit with tightly restricted physical contact.

The stated aim is to persevere with tighter restrictions longer in the first instance to avoid needing to go back to them later if reservoirs of disease are missed thus avoiding repeated social disruptions.

I have also noticed that despite the arrival of two groups from overseas, one from Uruguay and one from Peru, we have not seen a growth in Overseas cases, so I think those who are in quarantine are not counted in these figures. This may be because they have had no chance to infect local residents, or just that their test results are not back yet.

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New Zealand situation for 18 April 2020.

Summary is:
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand10948
Number of probable cases3285
Number of confirmed and probable cases142213
Number of cases in hospital206
Number of recovered cases86751
Number of deaths110

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New Zealand situation for 20 April 2020.

Summary is:
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand11057
Number of probable cases3352
Number of confirmed and probable cases14409
Number of cases in hospital14-4
Number of recovered cases97462
Number of deaths120



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New Zealand is now starting to relax contact restrictions with many businesses reopening with contact-less transactions and extensive disinfection of product.Our numbers are now well into single digits per day and all recent new cases have been tied to existing cases or clusters. This indicates there is little or no community spread.

Our total deaths is now 19, mostly over 70 and all with underlying medical conditions.

Focus is now on maintaining the situation by extensive testing and rapid contact tracing of new cases. The Ministry of Health has also resolved the travel history of nearly all cases.

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I have just provided the domestic age group chart as the Overseas cases have been static for several days and our border control is so tight that they are unlikely to affect the rest of the country. The age distribution shows that we have been mostly successful in keeping COVID-19 out of the Aged Care facilities. It also shows that the disease is much less prevalent in the young.
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