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AFD - Pandemic Communication

sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President
A Pullet Surprise Winning Report



# 2116

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/





I've read the following report several times, and I come away confused each time.

The story purports to say that a world renown immunologist, Professor Peter Doherty, co-winner of the 1996 Nobel Prize, is claiming that Australia is safe from the H5N1 virus.

I assume he means from migratory birds or the poultry trade, but this report hardly makes that clear.


First the article, then some headscratching.



Bird flu virus 'unlikely to reach Australia'



An international conference in Brisbane has been told that it is unlikely a deadly strain of the bird flu virus will ever reach Australia.

It is the first time Australia has hosted the World Poultry Congress, with more than 2,000 delegates attending the first day.

Immunologist and Nobel prize-winner Peter Doherty says although the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain has killed 240 people overseas, Australia's dry climate and isolation will help prevent the virus entering the country.

"It's not something we have to worry about," he said.

But virus expert Dr Andrew Turner says there is still a slight risk.

"We have to be prepared, it may not be H5N1 which starts the pandemic - there are other viruses circulating in birds at the moment," he said.

However he says Australia's strict quarantine system is helping keep bird flu out of the country.

An inquiry into last year's horse flu outbreak blamed weak quarantine procedures for the spread of the virus.

Dr Turner says poultry is monitored more closely than horses.

"The restrictions on birds coming in, poultry genetics coming in, are much much stronger than horses," he said.

"It's a very strict quarantine regime and they come from birds in very highly protected flocks overseas."

The conference ends on Friday.


When I first saw the headline (which are often notoriously bad indicators of a story's content), I assumed this report was on the likelihood (or not) of migratory birds (or the poultry trade) carrying the H5N1 virus to Australia.

I still think so.


Unfortunately, it is hard to tell that from this muddled report. The reporter mentions human cases in the same sentence that says Professor Doherty believes Australia's dry climate and isolation will help prevent the virus entering the country.


If he is simply talking about migratory birds, or the poultry trade, then this certainly gives the wrong impression. It would have been nice to have a direct quote from Professor Doherty, rather than the reporter's paraphrasing.


The inclusion of Dr Andrew Turner's quote that - "We have to be prepared, it may not be H5N1 which starts the pandemic - there are other viruses circulating in birds at the moment."- further confuses matters, as it is unclear in what context this statement was made.


Since this story comes out of the World Poultry Congress, and Professor Doherty clearly references Australia's dry climate and isolation, I have to assume he was talking about H5N1 in birds.


Dr. Turner's response that Australia's strict quarantining process is keeping bird flu out of the country is further evidence that this discussion was about birds, not pandemic flu.


While I've seen far more egregious reporting on pandemic issues before, this report is ambiguous enough to deserve dissection.



To the lay public `bird flu', of course, is the pandemic threat - even though is really refers to one of a number of avian influenza infections in birds, not to pandemic influenza.

The debate over whether migratory birds or the poultry trade will ever introduce the H5N1 virus into Australia is above my pay grade. I'll let the experts battle that one out.


Of greater concern to me is the generally poor quality of reporting on bird flu and pandemic flu around the world. I've called attention to this sort of thing in the past.


Far too often reports are merely press releases in disguise or thinly veiled propaganda with no critical analysis. Statements are often printed as fact, and never questioned.


Should a pandemic erupt, every newspaper reporter, and every talking head on local, national, and cable news shows will need to become instant `experts' on pandemic flu.

Good Information, delivered responsibly, will be vital during a crisis.

As it stands, I see only a handful of pandemic knowledgeable reporters out there.


People like Helen Branswell of the Canadian Press, Maggie Fox of Reuters, Jason Gale of Bloomberg, Emmi Fitri of the Jakarta Post, Robin McDowell of AP, Maryn McKenna, Lisa Schnirring and Robert Roos at CIDRAP, and perhaps a dozen others who really have a handle on the subject.

News organizations, including newspapers and local and cable newscasters, should seriously consider holding remedial classes for their reporters on pandemic influenza. If they already have, it certainly doesn't show.


A severe pandemic, should one come, will be one of the biggest news story of the century.


It would seem incumbent upon news organizations to try to get it right.

posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 9:32 AM
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Feedback On Flublogia




# 2121



It is hard to be a participant in Flublogia without wondering just how we are perceived by non-flubies - particularly those who work or make policy inside the Washington D.C. beltway.

Are we minor irritants, like fleas on an elephant's back, that scarcely warrant notice? Are we dismissed as marginal, perhaps even fringe players, with nothing of substance to contribute?

Or . . . are we looked upon as a serious partner in our nation's, and indeed the world's, journey towards better pandemic preparedness.
I think the answer may surprise you.

Readers of this blog are no doubt aware that over the past year, the HHS and the CDC have reached out to Flublogia, and have invited some of us to participate in their planning and communications sessions.

Forums like the Flu Wiki and Flutrackers have been openly hailed by representatives of government agencies as being responsible, and valuable, contributors to the pandemic preparedness and education effort.


A good example of this was when HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt's science advisor, Dr. William Raub, answered questions on the Flu Wiki earlier this year. A few years ago, it would have been unthinkable that such a highly placed official would submit to an interview on an Internet forum.



Preparedness websites, such as GET PANDEMIC READY, are increasingly being utilized by local governments as a source of preparedness information for their citizens.


Last year, in an unprecedented move, the HHS held a 5-week Pandemic Leadership Blog, where eleven bloggers coming from various sectors of our nation produced roughly 60 blogs. Flublogia was invited here as well, with Dr. Greg Dworkin (Daily Kos, Flu Wiki) and I participating.


If you haven't read the 60 blogs, and the roughly 2000 comments archived there, you really should spend some time perusing this HHS blog site.

This year again, the HHS invited Dr. Dworkin, along with Sharon Sanders of Flutrackers, and myself to Washington to take part in a pandemic communications tabletop exercise. And since that time, we've been invited to participate in HHS sponsored teleconferences as well.


Whether you agree, or disagree, with their policies (and I've publicly done both) you have to admit that these government agencies are trying to reach out and understand the online community.

They sense that we, Flublogia, are part of the future of pandemic communications, and quite frankly, they aren't sure what to do about that.


What they do know is that many people want to hear the pandemic preparedness message from someone other than the Federal government. That was the whole point of last year's Pandemic Leadership Summit.

To engage the private sector in delivering the message.

There are now toolkits, freely available on the HHS pandemic flu site, for use by community leaders, civic, and religious organizations to help get the word out.

These were born, in part, from input from that summit.

While I've known for some time that Flublogia's importance has been growing, it was driven home to me today by a file sent to me by Sharon Sanders of Flutrackers.


In her meanderings around the Internet she uncovered, quite by accident, a power point presentation and audio file from an executive web seminar held last February.


The venue was Forum One Communication's Web Executive Seminar on February 26, 2008, and the presenters are Stephanie Marshall, Director of Pandemic Communications at the Office of the Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services - and Qui Diaz, one of the key organizers of the Leadership Summit from Ogilvy Public Relations.


The powerpoint presentation and audio file, entitled Using Social Sites to Engage Audiences About Pandemic Flu are posted on SlideShare.com. The audio runs about 20 minutes. There are 23 slides to view as you listen.


It is a fascinating behind-the-scenes look at how they put together the Leadership summit, along with some pretty encouraging things they had to say about Flublogia in general.


Flublogia is growing, and learning as it does so.

It hasn't always been a smooth ride. To some officials I'm sure we have been viewed, at times, to be caustic, impatient, demanding, and damned inconvenient.


This is, after all, the Internet. That comes with the territory.


But Flublogia is also a terrific resource; not only for ideas and public education, but for action.


We have newshounds that search for hours each day, painstakingly reading and translating foreign news reports, looking for the latest pandemic information. The work that they do is often unsung, but I can assure them it is noticed and appreciated at official levels.

Frankly, I couldn't do much of what I do here without them.


Bloggers such as Crof, Scott, SophiaZoe and the Reveres not only bring their personal perspectives to the issues, they also capture and present the latest news and information.


Much of what I know about the science of influenza I owe to the Reveres. All of what I know about the art of blogging, I owe to Crof.


We have grassroots organizations springing forth from the forums, such as the Readymom's Alliance, which has spread the preparedness word at a number of prominent national conventions this year. And projects like Students Prep America, which is taking the preparedness message to college students.


I don't think many of us in Flublogia had any idea three years ago that we'd ever be anything more than an informal gathering place where people who shared the same concerns could share information and commiserate.

We've somehow evolved from that humble beginning.

The flu forums have thousands of participants from literally scores of countries. Sure, we have doctors and scientists - but we also have housewives and retirees, nurses and firefighters, construction workers and concerned moms.

People from all walks of life. And considering the diversity of opinions and varied backgrounds, all working surprisingly well together with but one goal.

To help reduce morbidity and mortality during the next pandemic.

Sometimes the best things in life aren't planned.


They just happen.

posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 8:38 PM
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

"Feedback On Flublogia"

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DemFromCT said...</dt><dd>
</dd><dd>Indeed, some things just happen.
Thanks for posting this!
10:39 PM</dd><dt>
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ReadyMom said...</dt><dd>
</dd><dd>Thanks, Mike. I was feeling a little disappointed, today. Wondering if I have the energy to keep on going, after realizing my own county is not going to promote individual preparedness and I'm the lone voice here. Your post is prodding me to keep on going. Not to give up. -k
11:07 PM</dd><dt>
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SusanC said...</dt><dd>
</dd><dd>Mike, thanks for your post. For once, much as I support most of what you said, I must disagree with the spirit of your piece. I am fully aware of the incredible things that flublogia has accomplished, but to me there is only one test, on how well we are doing. And the test is this:

Are we actually making a difference in the real world?

Not the world of flublogia, where we are very good at helping each other learn and prepare.

Not the world of government, when they are very good at paying attention to what we say (or at least making a song and dance of it).

But in the real world. Are we succeeding in getting substantial portions of the public aware, let alone prepared? Are we able to assist tptb to act differently, to bravely do their duty of informing the public?

Cos what is public health, without the public?

The public is not only not on board, they remain blithely ignorant.

The internet is a wonderful tool to disseminate knowledge. It can also be an extremely insular world, since those who read certain topics are mostly self-selected. They are already aware, before they will read what we write. I'm sure tptb knows this as well, which makes their platitudes towards us all the more irksome. Do you ever get a sense that words are cheap? That is action that we want? I do. And I'm frustrated and wary that we are falling into the honey-coated trap of thinking we are important and making a difference, while those who have very different ideas about pandemic planning is all about, are having significant impact on how policy is actually being implemented behind the back of the public, and are laughing all the way to the bank.

Last week, we went to the National PTA convention. We made a point of speaking to the delegates one-on-one, sharing with them the information about pandemics, about kids being at risk (ASTHO notwithstanding), about the need to prepare, and about early school dismissal as a public health intervention to protect kids. We personally talked to some 400+ PTA representatives, those public-spirited citizens who have taken upon themselves to make their schools and their community better places.

The overwhelming, and I mean overwhelming, reaction to what we shared was shock. Shock about the information we are sharing, but also shock that they have heard nothing about it. Zero. Zilch. Nada. (Read more about this here)

I don't know who (which spin doctor or 'think tank'?) came up with this hypothesis that people need to hear messages from anyone else other than the government; the theory that they need to hear the information from those they trust. Do we have actual data that support that? I see 2 problems with these 2 themes: first they presuppose people do not trust the government. It may be true in some areas, but it can also be USED by government to run away from their responsibilities. The second problem is without a clear and public message from the government, it's mighty hard for those of us who have not been formally anointed to do the job of informing the public (as distinct from those 'leaders' in the leadership forum) to spread the word at all.

As for those who ARE anointed, are we seeing a lot of efforts by these 'leaders' to take their message to their communities? Well, it depends on your definition of community. Yes, we are seeing a lot of activities by business. I have taken part in a number of them. They mostly concentrate on making COOP plans for their business, and most communications are still limited to senior staff or those directly involved in COOP or security. Again the vast majority of rank and file employees remain ignorant.

As for the National PTA, I understand they were invited to the leadership summit. Has anything been done to inform their delegates, 1 whole year after the summit? We haven't heard a single one of these national level delegates tell us they have been informed by their leadership. And that is just one example.

Leaving aside the pragmatic view for the moment, there is to me a strong moral objection against such an approach. Because it presupposes that as a society, we CAN trust these so-called 'leaders' to do their job. Well, can we? they are not elected. They are not paid out of the public purse. They are not accountable to the public, to society at large. Their primary responsibility and allegiance is to whoever hires them, in their organization (and rightly so). They are NOT a legitimate substitute for what should have been the government's responsibility. Can we trust them, without public scrutiny and accountability, to deliver the right message? Not altered or watered down by vested interests, ignorance, complacency, or downright reluctance to do what is not their job?

The other moral objection that I have, is what about those citizens who do not belong to any of these organizations or 'communities'? Which probably includes a majority of the population.

When there is a threat to the wellbeing of the people as a whole, it is the government's job to inform and assist them to mitigate the threat. When there is a health hazard like severe smog, when there is a hurricane, when there is a terrorist threat, it is the government's role to tell the public to be alert, prepared, and stay out of harms way. When smoking was deemed to be hazardous to health, they did not leave it to any other 'community leaders'. The Surgeon General took it upon himself to make sure every American is informed.

How is the threat of a pandemic different?

We must do our best and work with government. We must also do our duty to the public, to keep asking these questions that are of public interest.

To hold their feet to the fire; to hold them accountable.

Otherwise we are not much better than any other social media. They are great, but is that truly our goal?
2:23 AM
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SusanC said...</dt><dd>
</dd><dd>ps I posted your blog and my comments on Flu Wiki,to expand the debate. ;-)
3:03 AM
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FLA_MEDIC said...</dt><dd>Susan,

You raise important questions, worthy of discussion, although I fear you've strayed somewhat afield of the subject of this particularly blog entry.


The question at hand was `How is Flublogia regarded inside the beltway?", and the gist of my response was `with growing respectability'.


Grading our work, and the work of the various government agencies, is another subject. ;)


I would encourage my readers to visit, and participate in the thread you've started on the Wiki to debate this matter.
5:20 AM
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Florida1 said...</dt><dd>
</dd><dd>I think the point here is how the "new media" is communicating an important issue such as a potential pandemic. The fact is that we expand the dialog. We are now being accepted into the mainstream of communication vehicles and methodologies.

We can and do reach spheres of influence that are not easily accessible to traditional media.

Are we "the answer" to all social ills and problems? Of course not.

We are part of the information chain and for this reason I applaud all those who have opened doors to us, from governmental agencies, to corporations, to non-profits, and to major international news organizations.

A heart felt thank you to all of the news analysts on all of the "bird flu" sites who are responsible for much of the progress that has been made by the new media.

Our voices are being heard.</dd><dd>
10:37 AM</dd></dl>
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Fear Of Trying

# 2121







One of the frustrations felt most keenly by pandemic planners, federal officials, and those of us involved in pandemic communications is the difficulty we seem to have getting the preparedness message across to ordinary people.



It would seem simple enough.



We live in a dangerous world, where bad things can, and do happen to people each and every day. Hurricanes, floods, tornados, earthquakes . . . and yes, even pandemics - are part of this world we live in.


People cannot always depend upon their government to come to their rescue in a disaster, at least, not immediately.


It is up to each individual, each family, and every business to be prepared to weather a disaster on their own for days, perhaps even weeks.


In addition, we need to find ways to work together as a community when disaster strikes, for we are only as prepared as our next door neighbors.




This is a lesson that you would think you could teach a 10 year old child in about 15 minutes. It is, basically, a longer version of the Boy Scout's Motto: Be Prepared.




And yet, the preparedness movement in this country is virtually ignored. Despite warnings from our Federal government that all citizens should be prepared for a pandemic or other disaster, very few have made any effort at all in that direction.



We expect FEMA, or some other government agency to come to our rescue in a crisis.




Today is July 4th. Independence day.



Ironic, isn't it, that Americans today seem perfectly content to be dependent on their government to protect them. Even when that very government warns they may not be able to do so.



It wasn't always so.




Growing up as I did in Florida the 1950's and 1960's, being prepared was part of life.




Sure, part of that mindset was the cold war; the Cuban Missile Crisis, duck and cover drills, evacuation routes and fallout shelters, Civil Defense handouts in the schools and CONELRAD tests on the radio and TV.



Duck and Cover
250px-Bert2.png





The specter of instantaneous nuclear incineration was pretty much a constant part of life back then, and was a terrific motivator. For the very first time, man was capable of erasing himself from the face of the earth. Unlike today, we actually took that threat seriously.



Amazingly, being born into it, it seemed almost `normal'.







Like most families, we stockpiled food, had bottled water, emergency radios, flashlights, an emergency family plan . . . the very things our government wants us to do today.






Of course it wasn't all bad.



Our shared angst changed a generation. It helped to give us folk music, rock & roll, Tom Lehrer, the peace movement, a sexual revolution, and a newfound tendency to question authority.



When life lacks permanence and security, one tends to break, or at least change, the rules.



But beyond nuclear annihilation, we also had another threat. One that came around like clockwork.



Hurricane season was a yearly reminder that life could change, brutally and irrevocably, overnight. Towns could be destroyed, lives could be lost, and even the shape of the coastline could be altered in a matter of hours.



It was a very big deal, I can tell you, on April 1st 1960 when Tiros I - the world's first weather satellite - was launched into Earth orbit from Cape Canaveral, Florida.



For the first time, we had a `god's eye view' of earth. Regions of our globe where once cartographers could only inscribe "Here there be Dragons' could be watched 24 hours a day. Our view of our world changed, practically overnight.




It was a wondrous day for everyone, except possibly for members of the Flat Earth Society.



Sure the pictures were grainy, and the resolution laughable by today's standards, but for the first time we could watch from aloft and observe how and where hurricanes formed.



I was six years old. And I remember it like it was yesterday.


in_tiros_03.jpg






It meant we were no longer solely dependent on ship's reports and Hurricane Hunter aircraft to know if disaster lay just beyond the horizon.


It meant more than 12 hours warning to prepare.



TIROS 1 could take and transmit about 1 picture an hour, and only during daylight hours. Infrared capability was added to later `birds'. Today, our reconnaissance satellites can take 40 pictures an hour, and see right through the clouds and measure rainfall, winds and even sea water temperatures.



As a result, hurricane forecasting has improved tremendously over the past 48 years.



In 1960, about all satellites could do was tell us where hidden threats lay. They couldn't tell us much about where they were going, or how big they would get.














In many ways our surveillance of infectious diseases, like the H5N1 bird flu virus, are at the same level of technology (and accuracy) as our weather forecasting of nearly 50 years ago.




With our current science we can now see a pandemic threat while it is still over the horizon, but we can't tell where it is going or whether it will fizzle out or become a monster.



Our technology just isn't that good, and in many parts of the world, we have no surveillance at all. These are significant blind spots, where a virus could erupt and spread with little warning.



Just like hurricanes, pandemics come around on a semi-regular schedule. Instead of being a yearly occurrence, they come around every three or four decades. This pattern has held for at least the last 300 years.



The last pandemic was 40 years ago. You do the math.










Today, we no longer worry about missiles aimed at our cities. The paranoia over communism is pretty much gone. College aged kids, going to their freshman year this fall, were born after the Berlin Wall was torn down.



They don't remember the cold war.



The madness of the 1950's and the 1960's are as alien to them as the rise of Nazism in the 1930's seemed to my generation.





Most young adults today are probably unaware of the history of the Doomsday Clock, maintained by Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists . Although originally designed to show how close the world was to nuclear destruction, the clock now reflects other threats as well.


























By the Mid-1990's, the threat level had receded from it's peak, of 2 minutes to midnight (destruction) to 17 minutes. Unfortunately, the clock has been advanced several times since then, reflecting a more dangerous world, and we now sit at 5 minutes till midnight.











Today, Hurricanes no longer strike without warning. We get real time weather warnings about tornados and floods. We sense no threat of nuclear war. We have eyes in the sky, cable TV, computers on every desk, and modern science and miracle drugs.



We believe our technology will protect us.



While many parts of our world remain violent, chaotic, and perilous . . . that seems too far distant to affect us here at home.



We believe the government can, and will, come to our rescue, even when they warn us they can't. And we refuse to believe that anything really bad could happen.



Not to us, anyway.




For some people there almost seems to be a pathological resistance to preparing. As if, by taking basic steps to protect their friends and family they are committing a sacrilege of some sort.


A mutinous act? Putting their trust in themselves and their neighbors, instead of in their government?



Or perhaps it is just some deeply buried superstition, a core belief that by preparing they are tempting the new gods of technology to visit upon them and their families a plague or some other calamity.




I'm sure the reticence of people to prepare would make an excellent psychological study. It may be as simple as people don't like to think about unpleasant things.



But this is a barrier we must overcome if we are to be ready for a pandemic, or other national emergency. This complacency, inbred to our society over decades, is a clear and present danger to our nation and to the world.



We obviously need a stronger, more consistent message from our leaders. And not just from agencies like the CDC and the HHS, but from our political leaders as well. For too long our elected officials have been content to let others take the lead (and the potential flack) over the issue of pandemic preparedness.





This is an election year. When is the last time you heard a presidential candidate mention pandemic influenza as a global threat and urge Americans to actively prepare for a pandemic in a stump speech?




And no. Position papers that nobody reads don't count.



The media is to blame as well, for as a society we know far too much about the personal lives of Britany Spears or Brad and Angelina , and far too little about public health issues like pandemic influenza.



But the ultimate responsibility must lie with the people themselves. Even if the message is poorly, or inconsistently delivered, it is out there.



I found it. You found it. It really isn't that hard.



Thousands of newspapers articles, hundreds of news reports, scores of magazine articles, and dozens of TV specials over the past 3 years have underscored that there is a novel influenza virus in the wild and that scientists are concerned it could mutate into a pandemic strain that could kill millions.



How many times have you read that sentence?





How many times has the average American come across, glossed over, and chosen to ignored that warning?​





Yes, we need to find better ways to get the message out. The government obviously needs to do a better job conveying the threat, although I get letters from people in other countries who could but wish for a government that was as proactive on this issue as ours.



But I truly wonder; exactly what it will take to get through to the majority of people out there. What will it take to get them to act?



My guess is, probably reports of a pandemic breaking out on the evening news.
posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 11:50 AM
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

now, where is the panflu-clock ?

I feel, that we need it.
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Today Mike & I have been discussing the effectiveness of governmental warnings and we were remembering this dire warning from NOAA the day before hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans. Still to this day it is one of the most striking pieces I have ever read from a governmental agency. Bolding and underlining are mine:


000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE
. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED
. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.


AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.


POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.


THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.


AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

MSZ080>082-282100-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

0NSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 3 PM AND PERSIST
FOR 24 TO 28 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND PERSIST FOR 12 TO 15 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!



MSZ068>071-077-282100-
AMITE-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-WALTHALL-WILKINSON-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET BY SUNSET TODAY AND PERSIST
FOR 24 TO 28 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ONSET AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND PERSIST FOR 11 TO 15 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!



LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-
ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-
ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST FOR ABOUT 26 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
ONSET AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT IN LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD BY 3 AM MONDAY MORNING...PERSISTING FOR ABOUT 12 TO 17
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 140 MPH CAN LAST FOR 2
TO 3 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!



LAZ034>037-039-046>049-282100-
ASCENSION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-POINTE COUPEE-
ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE KATRINA...
DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND AT TIMES HURRICANE
FORCE WILL OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DURATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONSET AROUND 3 AM MONDAY
MORNING AND PERSIST FOR 18 TO 20 HOURS. NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS
ARE LIKELY TO ONSET AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/warn_archive/LIX/NPW/0828_155101.txt
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

In many ways our surveillance of infectious diseases, like the H5N1 bird flu virus, are at the same level of technology (and accuracy) as our weather forecasting of nearly 50 years ago.

How long has the level of technology been at this level?
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Not All Quiet On The Egyptian Front



# 2125



If you base your perceptions on the news carried by the English Language media, you'd certainly believe that there has been little or no bird flu related activity in Egypt for months.


Fortunately, newshounds on the Internet continue to monitor the Arabic Language news services, and occasionally stories do appear there about Egypt's battle against the H5N1 virus.

It should be noted that searching for bird flu news items in languages like Arabic and Chinese are particularly difficult tasks, and require extraordinary patience and dedication.


Over the past month Florida1 over at Flutrackers has uncovered a number of stories that indicate things are not as quiet as we might otherwise believe.


A good example is this translation about the severe shortage of eggs, reportedly due to bird flu, in Egypt.



Supply of eggs down by 90% due to ongoing bird flu epidemic in poultry.

Major supplier unable to supply eggs to hospitals.

Date: Wednesday June 11 2008 12:21:00 Alepeshaer Nabil Al-Saif:


After nearly a quarter century of control of the business supplying chicken eggs to government bodies and private agencies in Egypt and the Middle East and the preparation of up to 100 million eggs in a single auction, the inability (Mamdouh Bakhit) famous "King of eggs" in Egypt and the Middle East to provide 45 million eggs To deliver them to hospitals in Ain Shams University in accordance with the supply contract which has monopolized without any competition for a quarter of a century because of bird flu epidemic that swept Egypt.


For the first time in his life depends on the supply of eggs king of whites University Hospitals, after failing to provide even if meagre quantities of eggs from the black market because of inadequate avian influenza.

Another story, again from last month, relating the culling of 25,000 chickens `infected with bird flu'.




Egypt executes 25 thousand chickens infected with bird flu
6/6/2008
عدمت مصر 25 ألف دجاجة أثبتت الفحوصات الطبية إصابتها بمرض أنفلونزا الطيور فى مزرعة لتربية الدواجن بمحافظة الجيزة شمال البلاد.

Egypt executed 25 thousand chickens medical tests proved a severe bird flu in farm poultry Giza Governorate north of the country.
وقامت لجنة مشتركة من وزارة الزراعة والطب البيطرى ومباحث التموين والوحدة المحلية بإعدام هذا العدد من الدواجن بناء على طلب مديرية الطب البيطرى بالجيزة، التى أكدت إصابة هذه الدواجن بأنفلونزا الطيور، و قامت اللجنة بتطهير المزرعة والعنابر.

The joint committee from the Ministry of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine and Investigation Unit of Supply and local execution of this number of poultry at the request of the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine in Giza, which confirmed the infection of poultry with bird flu, and the Commission cleared the farm and wards.


There are others, many of them cryptic and difficult to decipher, even after translation. Individually, they may seem insignificant, but when taken together they paint a picture of a nation struggling to control the virus.


Yesterday, the OIE published the 7th report on highly pathogenic H5N1 in Egypt, and sure enough, they list at least 9 new outbreaks since May of this year. (Hat tip Ironorehopper on Flutrackers)


In a nation where the H5N1 virus was not already endemic, reporting these quantities of outbreaks would be considered `news'.

But of course, the virus is well entrenched in Egypt, and so outbreaks are no longer newsworthy. Just as outbreaks in Indonesia and Bangladesh no longer garner headlines.

A reminder that while things may seem quiet, that the bird flu virus has not gone away.

posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 8:41 AM
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

<!-- Begin .post --> The Sounds Of Silence



# 2130



The Summer of 2008 has, thus far anyway, been extraordinarily quiet on the bird flu front.


Part of that is due, no doubt, to the seasonal variation we see in bird flu activity. Summer has historically been a much quieter time of year for the H5N1 virus.

But I can remember no summer in the past three that has been this devoid of bird flu news.


Looking back at the first part of July of 2007, Vietnam was embroiled in an ongoing outbreak in poultry, and had seen 5 human cases reported in the previous six weeks. Before the month would end, they would record their third fatality of 2007.

Indonesia was still reporting cases, including their 81st fatality, a 6-year-old boy who reportedly had no contact with poultry.

Germany and the Czech Republic were both culling poultry after the discovery of the H5 virus in their nations. Siberia was reporting H5 antibodies detected in 50 wild birds, and India, Myanmar, and Bangladesh all reported bird flu outbreaks.

Even Egypt reported a human H5N1 case on July 22nd, bringing their total to 38 human infections.

Even though the dead of summer, there was a slow but steady drip . . drip . . . drip. . . of news.


While one could assume that the lack of news this year is simply a sign that the H5N1 bird flu virus is less active this summer than last, that may not be the entire answer.



Some of this year's decrease, at least in reports among poultry flocks, could be due to the rise in the number of asymptomatic infections in birds.

The recent Hong Kong culling was sparked, not by reports of sick or dying birds, but by the routine environmental testing of chicken dropping in the market which showed the H5N1 virus.

Up until now, we've depended upon bird die offs to serve as a signal that a flock is infected. If some strains of the virus no longer produce morbidity and mortality in poultry, we could well be missing the silent spread of the virus in some regions of the world.



We also know that some nations are no longer reporting bird flu incidents in the same fashion as they have in the past. There seems to have been a shift in policy, both stated and unstated, by a handful of countries around the world regarding how they talk about the avian flu threat.


Depending on one's viewpoint, this could be seen as a simple change in tactics, an unfortunate degradation in transparency, or in some cases, even outright censorship.


After years of dire warnings, and no emergent pandemic, some countries may be wondering exactly what is to be gained by publicizing their bird flu woes.


Talking publicly about outbreaks in poultry is bad for their economy, bad for tourism, and ultimately bad for their local leaders. And with human cases, even more so. For some, there may seem little incentive to remain transparent on these issues.


The status quo, with bird flu remaining a low-level threat, could go on for years. Some nations may now feel it is time to start to learn to `live with the virus', instead of continually trying to fight it.


Surveillance and containment is an expensive proposition. With world food supplies dangerously low, and the price of food rising, culling millions of chickens while your citizenry go hungry may soon be viewed as an untenable solution.

It already is a dangerously unpopular one.

How do you sell that idea to near-starving people? Especially if their birds don't appear sick?


At some point, this could even become a politically destabilizing policy.


Given the relatively low levels of human infections when compared to other threats such as Malaria, Dengue, and TB - and the high cost of combating it - we may be seeing an inevitable backlash growing among officials as they weary of this never-seeming-to-end battle against bird flu.



While Indonesia has been the most public about their refusal to release bird flu news, other nations seem to be shifting to lower profile releases of information as well.


It was, if you think about it, almost inevitable.



Egypt, for instance, recently reported in their OIE filing 10 outbreaks of the H5N1 virus in the past 90 days and the culling of tens of thousands of birds, yet that news never seems to make the media.

By filing with the OIE every 6 months, they are fulfilling their international reporting obligations, while at the same time, not drawing attention to the endemic nature of the disease in their country.

I'm sure, at the Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture, this is considered a win-win situation.






In Pakistan, we recently saw the spectacle of a Basic Livestock Officer named Mohammad Ibrahim who was made a scapegoat for revealing that the H5N1 virus had been detected on a farm in Swabi.


Never a shining example of transparency to begin with, Pakistan provoked the ire of international health officials with this blatant act. Ibrahim's immediate transfer to another district was a public punishment designed to send a signal to all other government employees to keep their mouths shut about avian influenza.

No doubt, it was effective.






Nations such as Iran, Myanmar and North Korea are closed societies, with little flow of news, and so we rarely know with any confidence what is going on within their borders. We get persistent rumors, but what really goes on there is unknown.




With the Olympics at hand, one can't help but wonder how controlled any unfavorable news reports are going to be coming out of China for the next couple of months.


The Chinese authorities, you can be sure, are not particularly anxious to allow negative news stories, particularly about a potentially deadly disease, circulate during a time when hundreds of thousands of visitors are flocking to that nation and the world watches in on TV.


One can't help but worry that the lesson drawn from their failed coverup of SARS in 2003 may not have been that such a policy was doomed to failure, but that it was possible to maintain it for several months.



And of course, Indonesia has made it very plain that it will not only not share virus samples, they will report human bird flu cases only when, and if, they want to.

As far as poultry outbreaks are concerned, they haven't filed an OIE report since September of 2006.


Indonesia has proven that nations can get away with this sort of misguided policy, and other nations may be lifting lessons from their playbook.



It would be comforting, I suppose, just to accept this lack of news as a good sign. And perhaps it is. Perhaps the virus really has quieted down, at least for now.




But it is also pretty obvious that the willingness of some nations to publicly acknowledge their bird flu problems has diminished over the past year.


It therefore makes it difficult to compare last year to this year.

A shift in policy away from transparency does not, of course, mean that there are outbreaks going on to which we are not informed.


It simply means there could be.


Our world's ability to combat the avian flu threat, however, is not enhanced by secrecy. Without ongoing surveillance, particularly in those parts of the world where the virus is most active, we run a terrible risk of missing early clues that a pandemic may be brewing.

We also may lose any opportunity, no matter how slim, of containing a pandemic outbreak should one erupt.

Any short-term gain to be had by minimizing, or under-reporting, bird flu outbreaks around the world are likely to be quickly erased once a serious outbreak occurs.


Of course, recognizing that requires looking beyond today, or sometimes even beyond tomorrow, and actually caring about what happens outside your own borders.

It requires taking the long view.

And as a species, we often aren't terribly good at that.

posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 5:54 PM
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Thursday, July 17, 2008



Forward Looking Statements




# 2150



It seems that every few weeks we are treated to breathless reporting about the latest scientific advance that will hopefully prevent the next influenza pandemic.

A couple of examples this week include:

Scientists Report Progress Toward Bird Flu 'Cure'
ConsumerAffairs.Com 22:43 16-Jul-08

Cure for bird flu likely
The Hindu - Todays Headlines 19:54 16-Jul-08

While I'm a great advocate of scientific research, and certainly am interested in the latest advances, I take a less than charitable view of how many of these stories are reported.


Particularly when I see the word `cure' prominently featured in the headlines.

This particular story is about the mapping of the avian flu virus's structure, which may someday lead to the creation of new drugs (antivirals) to combat it.

This appears to be an important advance. I have no quibble with the research.
It is the coverage that concerns me.


Whenever a new discovery is made, or a new drug or vaccine is tested, we are invariably assured that it `could lead to new drugs or therapies', or that it `could prevent the next pandemic'.

Not to diminish the value of any of this research, but the operative word here is `could'.

Rarely do these articles explain that any new designer drugs are likely years away from human testing. That their safety and efficacy must be established before they can be unleashed on the public.

And rarely are the logistics of delivering a `miracle cure' to nearly 7 billion inhabitants of this planet discussed.
These stories often rely on `forward-looking statements', or projections of future events based on `expectations', `hopes', `beliefs', or `estimates' that are not necessarily guaranteed to pan out.

When you see words like -
  • could
  • believe
  • someday
  • estimate
  • anticipate
  • plan
  • predict
  • may
  • hope
  • can
  • will
  • should
  • expect
  • intend
  • is designed to
  • with the intent
  • potential
- these are signals that what you are reading isn't necessarily based on cold-hard reality or even existing technology, but rather on speculation about the future.


Informed speculation sometimes, but speculation nonetheless.

Often these stories come from press releases, whose intent is to attract investors, government grants, or notoriety for a researcher, laboratory, or university.


Not necessarily bad things, of course, but certainly relevant when analyzing the probative value of a story.


Some of these discoveries may, someday, lead us to the next antiviral or vaccine. They may, indeed, help save lives in some future pandemic.

But we need to be very careful when reading these stories, else we risk deluding ourselves that a miracle `cure' is just around the corner.



# 2150 posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 1:15 PM
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Upcoming Conference On The Health Blogosphere



# 2179



The Kaiser Family Foundation will host a conference on the Health Blogosphere this coming Tuesday, with Secretary Michael Leavitt of the HHS (Health & Human Services) giving the keynote address, followed by a panel discussion on health related blogging.


Here is how the Kaiser Website describes the meeting.



<img height="1" width="5">
The Health Blogoshpere: What It Means for Policy Debates and Journalism

LIVE on Tuesday, July 29 at 1 p.m. ET: View a webcast of a discussion sponsored by the Kaiser Family Foundation on the growing influence of blogs on health news and policy debates. Submit questions before or during the event to ask@kaisernetwork.org.


RSVP
rsvp@kff.org
contactS
Rakesh Singh
(202) 654-1313
rsingh@kff.org
Tiffany Ford
(202) 347-5270
tford@kff.org


On Tuesday, July 29, the Kaiser Family Foundation is sponsoring a discussion about the growing influence of blogs on health news and policy debates. Only in the past few years has the blogosphere become mainstream. In the health policy arena, we now see policymakers, journalists, researchers and interest groups utilizing this new media tool to deliver information to their audiences.


The briefing will highlight how the traditional health policy world has embraced blogging and will feature a keynote address by U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt, the first cabinet officer to author an official blog, followed by a moderated discussion with a variety of health policy bloggers and a media analyst.


Questions to be explored with the panelists include: Why do individuals and organizations blog? How does blogging impact the broader work of an organization? Are there different standards used when blogging versus other writing? Have blogs impacted the news business significantly? What kind of influence are blogs having on political and policy debates?

Welcome and Introduction
Drew Altman, President and Chief Executive Officer,
Kaiser Family Foundation

Keynote Address
The Honorable Michael O. LeavittSecretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Panel Discussion
Vicky Rideout (moderator)
Vice President, Kaiser Family Foundation and
Director, Kaiser Forum on Health Journalism and the News Business
Jacob Goldstein, Wall Street Journal
Michael Cannon, Cato Institute
Ezra Klein, American Prospect Magazine
John McDonough, Office of Senator Edward Kennedy and formerly of Health Care for All in Massachusetts

Tom Rosenstiel, Center for Excellence in Journalism

WHEN: Tuesday, July 29, lunch served at 12:30 p.m. and program begins at 1:00 p.m.

WHERE: Barabara Jordan Conference Center , 1330 G Street, NW , Washington , DC . For those who cannot attend, the event will bewebcast live.

RSVP: If you plan to attend the event, please send your name and affiliation to rsvp@kff.org.


A little over a year ago, the HHS set up a 5-week Pandemic Leadership Blog, and invited roughly a dozen bloggers from around the country to participate. This blog site, and the hundreds of comments it inspired, is archived online and may still be viewed.

Secretary Leavitt, as you probably know, is the first cabinet level official to blog on a regular basis. His blog is both interesting and entertaining, and is well worth your time to visit. He is currently in the middle of a multi-part series on the safety of global imports called Safety At The Speed Of Life.

Here are links to the first 5 parts:
Earlier this year, the HHS held a pandemic communications tabletop exercise, and once again they invited the blogosphere to participate. Sitting at the table with Maggie Fox of Reuters and Lisa Stark of ABC news were Internet bloggers like Dr. Greg Dworkin of the Flu Wiki, Sharon Sanders of Flutrackers, and myself.

We've obviously come a long way. Bloggers are now considered to be part of the `new media'. Earlier this month I explored this concept in Feedback on Flublogia.

According to Technorati, there are more than 112 million bloggers. That's a lot of content. Increasingly people are turning to bloggers to get news, information, and opinion.

As always, whether it is mainstream news or Internet blogs, Caveat Lector.

It will be interesting to see how these panel members view this `new media' of ours. I know I'll be watching.

posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 7:31 AM
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Sunday, July 27, 2008

<!-- Begin .post --> In The Land Of The News Blackout The Internet Rumor Is King



# 2180


This past week has seen a resurgence of vague, disturbing stories of disease outbreaks in China, and tales of news censorship. Whether there is any truth to these stories, or what that truth might be, is impossible to tell.

There are, after all, multiple political agendas at work here.

The Chinese government obviously wants the Olympics to go off without a hitch, and for nothing to sully China's image during the intensive press coverage that is building.

Even without the Olympics, China consistently ranks near the bottom of countries ranked by the freedom of their press by Reporters Without Borders. Here are the bottom 10 countries on this year's list.


158 Iran
159 Saudi Arabia
160 Nepal
161 Vietnam
162 China
163 Eritrea
164 Turkmenistan
165 Burma
166 Cuba
167 North Korea

After the debacle of SARS coverup in 2003, very few observers are comfortable with the level of transparency exhibited by the Chinese government when it come to admitting they have a problem.


So when articles begin to appear in the press suggesting there is a new disease outbreak somewhere in China, and the Chinese government either denies this, or simply refuses to comment, Internet speculation takes off.

This week, there have been multiple reports of some sort of hemorrhagic illness in a village in China. The reports in Chinese are both difficult to translate and interpret.

While the details vary, many are similar to this short report from dajiyuan.com.

(Hat Tip Pugmom on the Wiki)

July 27 - Tang Xingwen County in Shandong 10,000 Hau Tsuen recently, a man suffering from unknown disease, high fever for several days not to not long after the death, before his death vomit blood.

Contact with him many people are infected, of which his father had died and Gufu (man vomited up blood splashed on them). On the other infected people has been to follow the current missing.

The matter has been reported to authorities in Beijing, back on sampling. 10,000 Hau Tsuen has been closed, while contacts with the outside world, villagers were threatened not to leak information.
(http://www.dajiyuan.com)
There have been other stories, in other newspapers, that talk of a `meningitis' outbreak in Qingdao with hemorrhagic symptoms.

The various flu forums, and their newshounds, have been working overtime trying to figure out what, if anything, these reports represent. It's hard, and frustrating work.

We know, of course, that there are dissident groups who would like very much to disrupt China's Olympics. Propaganda isn't just a tool of the government in power.

So we can't automatically assume that these stories are true.

But we can't assume they are false, either.



* * * * *


Last month we heard similar stories out of North Korea; mysterious deaths and illnesses possibly connected to `bird flu'. Sitting at the very bottom of the Freedom of the Press list, denials issued by their government inspire little confidence.

Here is an AP report from June 19th.


North Korea denies bird flu
SEOUL (AP) ? North Korea strongly denied Thursday that bird flu had recently broken out in the country, contradicting a report from an outside aid group.

The Seoul-based Good Friends organization said last week that the disease had been discovered in the communist nation's northeast on June 3, when several birds were found dead near a military base.

The group also said dozens of magpies were found dead inside a camp for political prisoners in an adjacent province, and a child of one prison official subsequently suffered a high fever and died, although the cause of the deaths was unclear.
If there was anything to this report (and I have my doubts), then the North Korean government has managed to suppress it.



* * * * *


Indonesia, which ranks 117th down the Press Freedom list, has recently stopped reporting bird flu cases or fatalities in `real time'. What little information they are releasing, is provided on their own timetable.

What they are withholding, if anything, is unknown.

What we do know is that over the past month news stories about bird flu (Flu Burung) have all but disappeared from the English language papers in that nation.

Even the local, Bahasan language media, has little to say about bird flu anymore. Occasional reports of poultry deaths, and that's about it.

While there are still some reporters valiantly trying to cover the story in Indonesia, the government is doing what they can to thwart their efforts.

And of course, other nations are watching. Taking note. And considering their options.

If Indonesia can get away with this . . .


* * * * *


The Internet abhors a news vacuum.

Countries that believe they can suppress the news may find it possible for a while - even desirable - but eventually someone with a cell phone camera and an Internet connection will get the story out. Or it will be smuggled out on a disk or memory stick.

Until real news emerges we are often left with little more than rumor and innuendo. And frankly, these rumors are often far more damaging than the truth.

While I believe that nations are shooting themselves in the foot by suppressing the news, that isn't my real concern.

Someday, another disease like SARS will emerge from a country like China that has a history of controlling their press. It could be a pandemic influenza, or it could be something else entirely. But whatever it is, it wont just be a problem for the originating country.

It will be a problem for the world.

And the longer the world is kept in the dark, the better foothold it will have. And the more people it will affect.

Avian flu news this summer has been slow. Almost non-existent. Maybe that's a good sign. Or maybe we just aren't hearing from hotzone countries anymore.

That's the problem with the suppression of the news.

You can't even take it as a good sign when the news is slow.

posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 9:41 AM
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Web Conference On Health Bloggers Today



# 2187



A reminder that HHS Secretary Leavitt will be delivering the Keynote Address to this conference, which may be viewed online today.





<img height="1" width="5">
The Health Blogoshpere: What It Means for Policy Debates and Journalism


LIVE on Tuesday, July 29 at 1 p.m. ET: View a webcast of a discussion sponsored by the Kaiser Family Foundation on the growing influence of blogs on health news and policy debates. Submit questions before or during the event to ask@kaisernetwork.org.


RSVP
rsvp@kff.org
contactS
Rakesh Singh
(202) 654-1313
rsingh@kff.org
Tiffany Ford
(202) 347-5270
tford@kff.org
On Tuesday, July 29, the Kaiser Family Foundation is sponsoring a discussion about the growing influence of blogs on health news and policy debates. Only in the past few years has the blogosphere become mainstream. In the health policy arena, we now see policymakers, journalists, researchers and interest groups utilizing this new media tool to deliver information to their audiences.

The briefing will highlight how the traditional health policy world has embraced blogging and will feature a keynote address by U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt, the first cabinet officer to author an official blog, followed by a moderated discussion with a variety of health policy bloggers and a media analyst.

Questions to be explored with the panelists include: Why do individuals and organizations blog? How does blogging impact the broader work of an organization? Are there different standards used when blogging versus other writing? Have blogs impacted the news business significantly? What kind of influence are blogs having on political and policy debates?

Welcome and Introduction

Drew Altman, President and Chief Executive Officer,
Kaiser Family Foundation

Keynote Address

The Honorable Michael O. LeavittSecretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Panel Discussion

Vicky Rideout (moderator)
Vice President, Kaiser Family Foundation and
Director, Kaiser Forum on Health Journalism and the News Business

Jacob Goldstein, Wall Street Journal

Michael Cannon, Cato Institute

Ezra Klein, American Prospect Magazine

John McDonough, Office of Senator Edward Kennedy and formerly of Health Care for All in Massachusetts

Tom Rosenstiel, Center for Excellence in Journalism

WHEN: Tuesday, July 29, lunch served at 12:30 p.m. and program begins at 1:00 p.m.

WHERE: Barabara Jordan Conference Center , 1330 G Street, NW , Washington , DC . For those who cannot attend, the event will bewebcast live.

RSVP: If you plan to attend the event, please send your name and affiliation to rsvp@kff.org.
posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 11:38 AM
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Ohio Pandemic Flu PSA Campaign
# 2200

My thanks to Amish Country, on Flutrackers, for posting this link to Ohio's 30 second pandemic flu PSA, which will begin running on local TV stations this month.

http://ohiopandemicflu.gov/soundbytes/Pan%20FLu%20TV%20PSA%20June%202008.wmv


This PSA directs people to Ohio's Pandemic flu page, here. Here is a small sample of what is available on their site:




Free Materials Available this Fall


Due to the popularity of the 20?? printed materials, select items are being reprinted and will be available this fall.


A new product has also been develeoped to urge Ohioans to prepare - a pocket-size plan. The plan folds to the size of credit card and when expanded, contains a complete fill-in-the-blank emergency plan.


Samples of the reprinted materials are below:


pdficon.gif
pdficon.gif
pdficon.gif
pdficon.gif



Please continue checking this Web site for updates. An order form will be posted when the materials are ready.
Audio and Video available
The Ohio Department of Health will begin running an educational media campaign this month. See the What's New box on this page to download the new public service announcements.


Archive of the 2006 and 2007 media campaigns are available in our publication library as well as videos by other health departments.




posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 12:27 AM
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Editorial Decisions



# 2226


If you run a website, or a blog, or any other information portal on the Internet, or anyplace else for that matter, you make them.


Yesterday ProMED Mail made the following editorial policy announcement:


Until further notice, ProMED-mail will not report suspected human cases of avian influenza in Indonesia until they have been confirmed by the Indonesian Ministry of Health.

While this decision has garnered a certain amount of dismay in the Flubie community, I believe I understand some of the difficulties that ProMed has in reporting unconfirmed cases.


Knowing, in advance, that the Indonesian government will be slow to confirm cases - or worse, may elect not to confirm them at all - it becomes very difficult to maintain credibility when reporting these `suspect' cases.


Often, cases briefly appear in the Indonesian media, but are never followed up on. They simply disappear.


What then?


At some point you end up with, for lack of verification, nothing more than a string of unconfirmed rumors. Some may be true, but you can't tell them from the rest.


So I understand ProMED's dilemma.



For well over a year, I've struggled with this issue myself.

I don't try to cover every suspected bird flu case, particularly from Indonesia. I've learned, the hard way, that too often we never hear how they turned out.

Generally, I wait until I see multiple news sources carrying a story before I'll mention it. Sometimes, even then, unless there is something unusual about a case, I wait.

Admittedly, I often will delay mentioning a report until the newshounds on the flu forums, who are all better at translating and analyzing these stories than I am, can weigh in with their opinions.

I don't have a hard and fast policy on such things. And I certainly won't wait on any story I feel has merit until the Indonesian Health Ministry confirms it.

But I am selective.


And of course, every day, I pick and choose what stories to run based mostly on my interests, and my sensibilities.

This is, after all, a blog. Not a newspaper.



That is why you won't see `We're All Gonna Die!' type essays, personal attacks on policy makers (their policies are fair game, however), or worse, the latest wild government conspiracy theory grace these pages.


For those interested in such things, there's no lack of places on the net to find them.


Call it a matter of style, you just won't find them here.


Of course, I may miss a big story along the way. That's always a danger.


But no one should be relying on any one blog or news outlet for all of their news about bird flu, or any other issue.

Not even this one.

posted by FLA_MEDIC @ 9:29 AM
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Monday, August 18, 2008

ProMED to Report Suspect Cases From Indonesia



# 2239



A week ago ProMED mail, the global electronic reporting system for the International Society for Infectious Diseases, announced that due to the inability to confirm H5N1 case reports coming out of Indonesia, they would no longer carry reports of `suspected cases'.


ProMED Mail made the following editorial policy announcement on August 10th:

Until further notice, ProMED-mail will not report suspected human cases of avian influenza in Indonesia until they have been confirmed by the Indonesian Ministry of Health.

Following a week of public comment, most of which urged that ProMED continue to report on suspect cases (read excerpts here), ProMED has reversed their decision with this announcement today.


ProMED-mail conclusions

-----------------------
ProMED's motive in seeking to screen out unsubstantiated reports of suspected human cases of H5N1 avian influenza from Indonesia was simply to avoid creating alarm and despondency.


ProMED-mail has now decided to report all suspected human cases of H5N1 from Indonesia because the usual flow of information -- first suspect and then confirmation -- is disrupted there because of their public health policy.

In countries where the standard flow is working properly, it is counterproductive to report suspects because many of them will not be confirmed as positive, thereby causing undue alarm. Over time, this could have the effect of "crying wolf" (repeated false alarms leading to a true alarm being ignored). - Mods.ProMED-mail

While I understood some of the difficulties ProMED editors felt they faced printing suspect cases, I applaud their decision to resume reporting these cases.

Posted by FLA_MEDIC at <a class="timestamp-link" href="http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/08/promed-to-report-suspect-cases-from.html" rel="bookmark" title="permanent link"><abbr class="published" title="2008-08-18T10:26:00-04:00">10:26 AM</abbr>
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Nothing Exceeds Like Excess



# 2244



If you want a wildly successful website (unlike this one), the secret apparently is to publish outlandish, incendiary, and conspiratorial stories.


You see, people like conspiracy theories.


And any theory that can combine an evil government plot to enslave the world, a killer virus (man-made or at least man-modified), and a catastrophe of Biblical proportion . . . well, you know that's gonna be popular.


P.T. Barnum knew the score more than 100 years ago. And while he may have never said, "There's a sucker born every minute', he certainly made a fortune off that premise.


The Internet is the modern cradle of hoaxes and frauds, and with our advanced technology, they can spread with viral efficiency.


The recipe is easy.


Take something out of the news, like avian flu; something people have heard of . . . vaguely. Then dress it up with half truths and innuendo. Make charges, that `if true', would result in disaster for all of mankind.


Then pick an easy target as the villain, like the military or the government. Big Pharma is also good, or the military-industrial complex.


Just as long as you can point to a powerful entity - one that people already distrust.


Then release it. And watch the hits roll in.


Why, if you have advertising on your site, or better yet, can induce people to donate to your cause . . .you have a veritable gold mine.


In my youth I would have been tempted to argue with these people. I'd have debated their `facts', and have attempted to shine the light of logic on their specious arguments.


No longer.



If people want to believe that avian flu has been weaponized and will be released during the Olympics, that vaccines are an alien plot to manipulate our DNA and turn us into pod people, or that Donald Rumsfeld made millions by personally injected every serviceman with Tamiflu in 2001, then I say . . . let them.


The world is filled with billions of people who subscribe to inane, false, or patently ridiculous beliefs.


The world runs on them.


It simply isn't my job to try to disabuse people of their notions, no matter how silly they might be.


Arguing with true believers is like wrestling with a pig in the the mud. You both get dirty, and the pig sorta likes it.


Rather than engage in some Sisyphean effort to challenge these Internet rumors - and in doing so bring them more notoriety - I prefer to concentrate on avian flu related news that seems (to me at least) to be reasonable and true.


It's a subjective filter, I know. But it's the only one I have.


Boring, perhaps. And unlikely to draw massive numbers of new readers to this blog. But I can live with that.


Actually, I'm very happy with the quantity, and quality, of the visitors to this blog. And those that regularly read this site don't need me to tell them when some wild conspiracy theory is a bunch of nonsense.


I'd be preaching to the choir. And insulting their intelligence at the same time.


If my blog were more widely read, and by mostly laypeople, I might feel differently about this. I might feel more of a duty to refute these rumors.


And I certainly admire those willing to take the time and effort to do so.


I simply haven't the time, energy, or heart to bother.

Posted by FLA_MEDIC at <a class="timestamp-link" href="http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/08/nothing-exceeds-like-excess.html" rel="bookmark" title="permanent link"><abbr class="published" title="2008-08-21T11:35:00-04:00">11:35 AM</abbr>
 
Re: AFD - Pandemic Communication

Online Pandemic Conference


# 2270





On Thursday, September 4th, there will be an online pandemic conference entitled The Pandemic Threat: Preparing an Organizational Response.


The keynote speaker will be Dr. Julie Gerberding, Director of the CDC, and other speakers include Governor Tommy Thompson (former Secretary of HHS), and Dr. William Winkenwerder, Former Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs.


The conference will run from 10:00am to 3:00pm CST, and will be held in LaCrosse, Wisconsin.


It will also be broadcast live on the Internet.


This conference is free to attend or to view online. You do have to register in advance, however.

Posted by FLA_MEDIC at <a class="timestamp-link" href="http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/09/online-pandemic-conference.html" rel="bookmark" title="permanent link"><abbr class="published" title="2008-09-02T08:40:00-04:00">8:40 AM</abbr>
 
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