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AFD - Indonesian Outbreaks September 2008

sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President
Watching Indonesia Again



# 2302



Yesterday we began getting reports of four suspected cases of `flu burung', or human bird flu, out of Indonesia. Reports such as these are fairly common, and often are never confirmed as stemming from the H5N1 virus.


There are many diseases common in Indonesia that can produce the same symptoms as avian flu, and few communities have adequate medical and testing facilities to render a proper diagnosis.


While these four patients are only suspected of having bird flu, and we must await testing and (hopefully) some official announcement to be certain, the reporting on these cases has increased overnight.



This first report (hat tip Commonground on Flutrackers) comes from the tribun-timur.com and has been machine translated into English.



Four Residents Lutra Suspect Bird Flu

Two Chickens Were Found Positif Avian Influenza


Masamba, Tribun - totalling four villagers Desa Karya Mekar, Kecamatan Mappedeceng, Kabupaten Luwu Utara (Lutra), was stated suspek bird flu. The four of them till yesterday still were treated in the Regional Hospital (RSUD) Andi Djemma, Masamba, Lutra.
The four residents who were treated in this ward of the internal disease public were their respective, Komang Yuliani (22), Jesica (3 months), Kade Kurniati (24), dan Yudi Astawan (4). Yuliani and Jesica were the mother and the child, in spite of that with Kurniati and Astawan.



The plan is, the four patients suspek this bird flu will be reconciled to RSUD A Makassau, Kota Parepare. His article, RSUD A Djemma did not yet have equipment and isolation space to treat the bird flu sufferer.


One of the residents, Ketut Suliha stated, the four mothers and this child began to be attacked by the high fever since the last three days that was accompanied by dying the suddenness of several poultries in this area.

Poultry Positive

The Positif Karena poultry hot that was suffered never recovered, finally the family brought the two mothers and this child to the hospital.

Felt curious with the death of several poultries in the area of their settlement, the resident had finally reported this incident to the livestock breeding service and fisheries.


Was based on results of the inspection in the Besar Veteriner Hall (BB-Vet) Maros, two from five tails of the poultry that was taken his sample was stated positive was attacked by the virus of Avian Influenza.


"After being carried out by the inspection in the laboratory, there were two poultries that were stated positive bird flu, the" Peternakan" Service headword and Lutra fisheries, Kasim Alwi, to the reporter, on Monday (15/9).


Local TV news now has the story with this report (with a video in Indonesian) from MetroTVNews.

A Hat tip to IronOreHopper on Flutrackers for this link.




Four residents LUWU NORTH was expected by BURUNG FLU

Metrotvnews.com, Luwu Utara:

As Many As four patients were expected by bird flu from Luwu Utara was reconciled to the Public Hospital of Daerah Pare-Pare, South Sulawesi.

They were Komang Yuliani and his child, Jesika, as well as and two other residents, Yudi Astawan and Kadek Kurnias.


They were still allied.


The four of them came from the Mekar Sari Village, Kecamatan Mapadeceng, Luwu Utara.


Their assumption was flattest bird flu after the Peternakan Service local took three chickens that died suddenly around their house.


From results of the research of Laboratoruim Observasi of the Penelitian Maros Hall was stated these chickens were infected by the virus H5N1.


They were reconciled to the Hospital of Pare-Pare because in the Hospital of Andi Jemma did not have equipment for the bird flu patient. (the SHOT)
 
Re: AFD - Indonesian Outbreaks September 2008

Ain't Nobody Sick But Us Chickens



# 2315



(With apologies to Louis Jordan*)



Over the past few months getting reliable news out of Indonesia has become nearly impossible with the Health Ministry actively blocking the flow of avian influenza information at nearly every turn.


While the summer is traditionally a quiet time of the year for bird flu cases, and it is possible Indonesia really is seeing a huge reduction in human infections, it is also possible they either are no longer going out of their way to diagnose the disease, or are simply not admitting when they do.


Very rarely we get brief news stories - like the one last week from Lutra - mentioning suspected human cases. Rarely do we see a follow up, except sometimes we are told they `tested negative'.


The reliability of these tests, particularly once a patient is placed on Tamiflu, is highly suspect.


Although reporting on human cases is down, we are still seeing quite a number of reports of outbreaks in poultry in Indonesia. And newspapers and other media outlets do seem to be taking at least some interest in those.


This report from the Lampung Post, courtesy of bgw in Mt and History Lover on the Wiki.



September 20, 2008

All poultry, especially the chicken livestock in the Antak Seribu Village, County Merangin, Province Jambi, that were reported as positively attacked by the plague of bird flu (Avian influenza) must be destroyed.

On Friday (19-9) in Jambi, the Jambi Province Livestock Section Head, Natres Ulfi, in Jambi, said that because of rapid test results carried out by the local Livestock Service, dozens of tails of area chickens that died suddenly were positively attacked by the AI virus.

The local Livestock Service local was ordered to destroy all available poultry, and to carry out isolation against this village, in order that it not spread to the other villages and other areas.

Furthermore for the area of the closest neighbors, it was requested that incessant spraying or disinfectant be conducted, and that vaccinations be given to available poultry as immunity towards the plague of the deadly illness that could spread to humans.

Exactly what `carry out isolation against this village' means isn't stated, although it does sound a bit like a quarantine.


Whether that refers to people - or just a restriction of the movement of poultry in or out of the village - isn't clear.

Ambiguities such as this are one of the major limitations we face when translating from the Indonesian text.


This is one reason why we always hope that an English language news source like the Jakarta Post will weigh in. Sometimes, though, that doesn't help much - as in the case below.




Bird flu claims hundreds of chickens in Merangin regency

Jon Afrizal , The Jakarta Post , Jambi |
Sat, 09/20/2008 11:37 AM | The Archipelago

Hundreds of dead chickens discovered a few days ago in Merangin regency, Jambi, have been infected by avian flu, an official confirmed Friday.

Head of Merangin's husbandry agency Imam Budi Cahyono said his agency had conducted a rapid test on the chickens in Antak Seribu village and found the animals were infected with the disease.

"Our participatory disease surveillance team concluded the dead chickens were infected by avian flu," Imam said, adding the team had fumigated several areas in the village to prevent the virus from spreading.

The husbandry agency plans to implement focal culling measures for domestic birds living in a one-kilometer radius of the area where the dead chickens were first discovered, he said.

According to Imam, bird flu is endemic to Lantak Seribu, as a similar outbreak took place there last year.

"Basically, we're asking residents to conduct the culling themselves. If we do it, we'll have to get permission from the owners first," he added.

Residents should fumigate with bath soap once or twice a week to prevent the virus from spreading, he said.

"Using bath soap for fumigating is effective. Residents can't just rely on disinfectant, as there is not enough in stock."

Although the chickens are believed to have died at the beginning of Ramadan, the agency only received word of it a few days ago, Imam added.

He called on residents to report any dead chickens to the husbandry agency.

"They have to come to our office. Don't just call us because we won't be able to verify the report," he said.

Residents of Antak Seribu village said they already suspected the same virus from two years was once again responsible for killing their chickens.

"We're afraid the bird flu has come back, just like in 2006," said Wandi, a villager.

No human fatalities have been reported in the village in connection with the virus.

So far this year, there have been 101 bird flu-related deaths nationwide, with the majority occurring in Jakarta, West Java and Banten.




What we do learn from this report is there is a lack of disinfectant, and residents have been called upon to do their own culling - both are indicative of a less than robust control program in the area.



The story also mentions : "No human fatalities have been reported in the village in connection with the virus." While this doesn't rule out `human cases', it is, quite likely, just an awkward turn of a phrase.


It does give one pause, however.



The final paragraph is a real head-scratcher.


So far this year, there have been 101 bird flu-related deaths nationwide, with the majority occurring in Jakarta, West Java and Banten.

The official Indonesian `count' is 112 fatalities over the past 3 years. Where they get 101 bird flu related deaths nationwide this year is a bit of a mystery, but is probably a misprint.


And so it goes.











* Louis Jordan (July 8, 1908 ? February 4, 1975) was a pioneering American jazz, blues and rhythm & blues musician, songwriter and bandleader who enjoyed his greatest popularity from the late 1930s to the early 1950s. Known as "The King of the Jukebox", Jordan was highly popular with both black and white audiences in the later years of the swing era. - Wikepedia entry.

One of Louis Jordan's big hits was entitled : Ain't Nobody Here but Us Chickens

Posted by FLA_MEDIC at <a class="timestamp-link" href="http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2008/09/ain-nobody-sick-but-us-chickens.html" rel="bookmark" title="permanent link"><abbr class="published" title="2008-09-21T09:34:00-04:00">9:34 AM</abbr> 0 comments


Saturday, September 20, 2008

ISPs And Telcos Prepare For a Pandemic


# 2315


One of the smartest people I know on Internet tech issues is my blogging buddy Scott McPherson, who has written extensively about the fragility of the Internet and telecom issues during a pandemic.


Rather than rehash (and probably do so poorly) things he's already gone over -I'll simply refer you to some of his musings on the subject.


Why telecommuting will probably fail in a pandemic, Vol. 1
Journal Entry by Scott McPherson on November 28, 2007
Has anyone noticed their Internet connection slowing down over the past few days? Has anyone not noticed the slowness of the Internet, especially at night? E-commerce retailers are experiencing a huge surge in shoppers this holiday season. And nowhere is this more evident than in the (i...



Why telecommuting will probably fail in a pandemic, Vol. 2
Journal Entry by Scott McPherson on January 11, 2008
Computerworld magazine does a fine job of keeping pandemic preparedness on the minds of Chief Information Officers (that's Head Geek of corporate and government IT-dom), as well as decision-makers and IT personnel. Anyway, in their latest issue appears this gem of a story: Eight-day IT outage woul...



The ampersand that ate San Francisco; or, Why telecommuting will probably fail during a pandemic, Vol. 3
Journal Entry by Scott McPherson on March 19, 2008
As veteran readers of this Blogsite know by now, I am decidedly pessimistic about the ability of the Internet to stay viable during a severe influenza pandemic. Not that I think the Internet will collapse, never to get off the canvas again. Far from it: Recall that it was the US mil...


Why telecommuting will probably fail in a pandemic, Vol. 4
Journal Entry by Scott McPherson on April 17, 2008
Sorry for the dearth of posts since my open letter to the Indonesian president. Been very busy! But I also had the bad fortune of missing last night's South Park. You can't get any better, dead-on social commentary than this cartoon show for grown-ups. That's grown-ups, don't...


Why telecommuting will probably fail in a pandemic, Vol. 5
Journal Entry by Scott McPherson on June 4, 2008
A story in today's Washington Post brings the "bandwidth crunch" issue to light, and shows what Internet Service Providers (ISPs) are doing to try and regulate the flow of ones and zeroes. First, here are some quick excerpts and a link to the whole story. Heavy Internet Users Target...


Scott also writes a tech blog for ComputerWorld called Tiptoeing Through Minefields , and (when he finds time for it) is the CIO (Chief Information Officer) for the State of Florida's House of Representatives.



I dredge up all of this today because last week there was a meeting in Washington D.C. to discuss many of the issues that Scott has addressed in his blogs.


Keeping the Internet up, and Information technology systems working, during a pandemic would a tremendous challenge. With millions of people potentially staying home to avoid infection and either working online or seeking entertainment on the Internet, the ability of the system to carry the load is in real doubt.


Network management - which I take to be a euphemistic term for controlling, or limiting, certain high bandwidth Internet activities - may be required to keep the net viable.


This from NETWORKWORLD.





How telcos and ISPs are prepping for a pandemic

Network management, bandwidth priority will become critical tools
By Brad Reed , Network World , 09/18/2008

Network operators and IT professionals already worried about how hurricanes and financial meltdowns will impact their work lives can add another potential catastrophe to their list of concerns: a global pandemic.


During a panel sponsored by the FCC in Washington, D.C., Thursday, representatives from telecom carriers and ISPs discussed what steps they?ve been taking to prepare for the mass outbreak of a disease such as influenza, and also described the needs and challenges they would have to meet to keep communications up and running during a major global crisis. The most important tool at ISPs? disposal during a serious pandemic, panelists agreed, was that of network management.


(Continue . . .)
 
Re: AFD - Indonesian Outbreaks September 2008

The Jakarta Post On Pandemic Preparedness



# 2325



This year we've seen a steep decline in the number of human bird flu infections reported out of Indonesia. While we can argue over how accurate those numbers might be, we do know one thing:


The virus is still endemic in that nation, and human infections are still occurring.

The Jakarta Post today has an informative article today on the dangers of a pandemic.






Wednesday, September 24, 2008 7:53 PM


Bird flu cases down, but pandemic looms

Erwida Maulia , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Wed, 09/24/2008 10:46 AM | National

Indonesia must continue preparing for a bird flu pandemic, despite reports suggesting declines in cases of bird-to-human and bird-to-bird infections, health officials said Tuesday.

Erna Tresnaningsih, the Health Ministry's director for animal-vector diseases, said the confirmed number of humans infected by the H5N1 virus in Indonesia this year was 20 as of August, with 17 fatalities.

This is a decline, she claimed, from 55 cases with 45 fatalities in 2006 and 42 cases with 37 fatalities in 2007.


<snip>


Despite the declining number of infections, Indonesia has to be alert to the possibility of a bird flu pandemic, which, once it breaks out, could infect up to 66 million people, the Health Ministry warned.

Emil Agustiono, deputy to the coordinating minister for people's welfare, said a bird flu pandemic was unpredictable, but could happen through either the breeding of the H5N1 avian influenza virus with the H3N2/H1N1 human influenza virus, or through the mutation of the H5N1 virus in the human body.

Both processes could produce a new type of deadly, transmittable human-to-human influenza virus, which could then lead to a new influenza pandemic, he said.

(Continue . . .)
 
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