tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Prev Vet Med. 2014 Feb 14. pii: S0167-5877(14)00039-7. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.01.023. [Epub ahead of print]
Adapting a scenario tree model for freedom from disease as surveillance progresses: The Canadian notifiable avian influenza model.
Christensen J1, El Allaki F2, Valli?res A2.
Author information
Abstract
Scenario tree models with temporal discounting have been applied in four continents to support claims of freedom from animal disease. Recently, a second (new) model was developed for the same population and disease. This is a natural development because surveillance is a dynamic process that needs to adapt to changing circumstances - the difficulty is the justification for, documentation of, presentation of and the acceptance of the changes. Our objective was to propose a systematic approach to present changes to an existing scenario tree model for freedom from disease. We used the example of how we adapted the deterministic Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza scenario tree model published in 2011 to a stochastic scenario tree model where the definition of sub-populations and the estimation of probability of introduction of the pathogen were modified. We found that the standardized approach by Vanderstichel et al. (2013) with modifications provided a systematic approach to make and present changes to an existing scenario tree model. We believe that the new 2013 CanNAISS scenario tree model is a better model than the 2011 model because the 2013 model included more surveillance data. In particular, the new data on Notifiable Avian Influenza in Canada from the last 5 years were used to improve input parameters and model structure.
Crown Copyright ? 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS:
Avian influenza, Disease freedom, Poultry, Scenario tree methodology, Scenario tree modeling, Surveillance
PMID:
24588975
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24588975
Adapting a scenario tree model for freedom from disease as surveillance progresses: The Canadian notifiable avian influenza model.
Christensen J1, El Allaki F2, Valli?res A2.
Author information
Abstract
Scenario tree models with temporal discounting have been applied in four continents to support claims of freedom from animal disease. Recently, a second (new) model was developed for the same population and disease. This is a natural development because surveillance is a dynamic process that needs to adapt to changing circumstances - the difficulty is the justification for, documentation of, presentation of and the acceptance of the changes. Our objective was to propose a systematic approach to present changes to an existing scenario tree model for freedom from disease. We used the example of how we adapted the deterministic Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza scenario tree model published in 2011 to a stochastic scenario tree model where the definition of sub-populations and the estimation of probability of introduction of the pathogen were modified. We found that the standardized approach by Vanderstichel et al. (2013) with modifications provided a systematic approach to make and present changes to an existing scenario tree model. We believe that the new 2013 CanNAISS scenario tree model is a better model than the 2011 model because the 2013 model included more surveillance data. In particular, the new data on Notifiable Avian Influenza in Canada from the last 5 years were used to improve input parameters and model structure.
Crown Copyright ? 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS:
Avian influenza, Disease freedom, Poultry, Scenario tree methodology, Scenario tree modeling, Surveillance
PMID:
24588975
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24588975