tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Acta Med Port. 2020 Apr 27. doi: 10.20344/amp.13928. [Epub ahead of print]
Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal.
Nogueira PJ[SUP]1[/SUP], Nobre MA[SUP]2[/SUP], Nicola PJ[SUP]3[/SUP], Furtado C[SUP]4[/SUP], Vaz Carneiro A[SUP]5[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
in English, Portuguese
INTRODUCTION:
Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-cause mortality during the early COVID-19 pandemic period.
MATERIAL AND METHODS:
Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period.
RESULTS:
Despite the inherent uncertainty, it is safe to assume an observed excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65).
DISCUSSION:
The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals.
CONCLUSION:
The excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 was 3 to 5 fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths.
KEYWORDS:
Coronavirus; Coronavirus Infections; Disease Outbreaks; Mortality; Pandemics; Portugal
PMID:32343650DOI:10.20344/amp.13928
Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal.
Nogueira PJ[SUP]1[/SUP], Nobre MA[SUP]2[/SUP], Nicola PJ[SUP]3[/SUP], Furtado C[SUP]4[/SUP], Vaz Carneiro A[SUP]5[/SUP].
Author information
Abstract
in English, Portuguese
INTRODUCTION:
Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-cause mortality during the early COVID-19 pandemic period.
MATERIAL AND METHODS:
Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period.
RESULTS:
Despite the inherent uncertainty, it is safe to assume an observed excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65).
DISCUSSION:
The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals.
CONCLUSION:
The excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 was 3 to 5 fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths.
KEYWORDS:
Coronavirus; Coronavirus Infections; Disease Outbreaks; Mortality; Pandemics; Portugal
PMID:32343650DOI:10.20344/amp.13928