tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Jpn J Infect Dis. 2015 May 12. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]A verification of an overestimation of "deaths associated with influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, Japan" claimed in a demographic study.[/h] Nishimura H[SUP]1[/SUP], Ohkusa Y.
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Official records show Japanese influenza-death toll in 1918-1920 as 385 thousand. However, a recently published study claimed the records as skeptical, claiming the figure as "an anomaly by Asian standard", and re-estimated the number as about two million by its unique demographical calculation. However, it is not sound from the following socio-historical and statistical perspectives: 1) Japan had developed accurate registration and surveillance system which might not exist in other developing countries, 2) there were unique socio-economic situations to claim that the relatively low mortality rate in Japan was not "myth", 3) the proposed re-estimation was overestimation, because if it was the fact, about 1.6 million's influenza deaths should have missed to be detected nationwide, i.e. about 3 % of the population, and the influenza-death toll was unrealistically large comparing with the all-causes mortality of that period, 4) Japan started census in 1920, and it should significantly affect the demographic data analysis. However, the effect by this artifact was not taken into account. Consequently, it caused the severe overestimation of the death, 5) we recalculated the mortality using the same method and dataset but we could not find the similar estimated figure claimed in that paper.
PMID: 25971321 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher] Free full text
[h=1]A verification of an overestimation of "deaths associated with influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, Japan" claimed in a demographic study.[/h] Nishimura H[SUP]1[/SUP], Ohkusa Y.
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Official records show Japanese influenza-death toll in 1918-1920 as 385 thousand. However, a recently published study claimed the records as skeptical, claiming the figure as "an anomaly by Asian standard", and re-estimated the number as about two million by its unique demographical calculation. However, it is not sound from the following socio-historical and statistical perspectives: 1) Japan had developed accurate registration and surveillance system which might not exist in other developing countries, 2) there were unique socio-economic situations to claim that the relatively low mortality rate in Japan was not "myth", 3) the proposed re-estimation was overestimation, because if it was the fact, about 1.6 million's influenza deaths should have missed to be detected nationwide, i.e. about 3 % of the population, and the influenza-death toll was unrealistically large comparing with the all-causes mortality of that period, 4) Japan started census in 1920, and it should significantly affect the demographic data analysis. However, the effect by this artifact was not taken into account. Consequently, it caused the severe overestimation of the death, 5) we recalculated the mortality using the same method and dataset but we could not find the similar estimated figure claimed in that paper.
PMID: 25971321 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher] Free full text