tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Eur Phys J E Soft Matter. 2011 Feb;34(2):1-6. Epub 2011 Feb 16.
A simple stochastic lattice gas model for H1N1 pandemic. Application to the Italian epidemiological data.
Fierro A, Liccardo A.
CNR-SPIN, via Cinthia, 80126, Napoli, Italy, fierro@na.infn.it.
Abstract
We construct a very simple epidemic model for influenza spreading in an age-class-distributed population, by coupling a lattice gas model for the population dynamics with a SIR stochastic model for susceptible, infected and removed/immune individuals. We use as a test case the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the novel influenza A(H1N1). The most valuable features of this model are its country-independent and virus-independent structure (few demographic, social and virological data are used to fix some parameters), its large statistic due to a very short run-time machine, and its easy generalizability to include mitigation strategies. In spite of its simplicity, the model presented reproduces the epidemiological Italian data, with sensible predictions for the reproduction number and theoretically interesting results for the generation time distribution.
PMID: 21337015 [PubMed - in process]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21337015
A simple stochastic lattice gas model for H1N1 pandemic. Application to the Italian epidemiological data.
Fierro A, Liccardo A.
CNR-SPIN, via Cinthia, 80126, Napoli, Italy, fierro@na.infn.it.
Abstract
We construct a very simple epidemic model for influenza spreading in an age-class-distributed population, by coupling a lattice gas model for the population dynamics with a SIR stochastic model for susceptible, infected and removed/immune individuals. We use as a test case the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the novel influenza A(H1N1). The most valuable features of this model are its country-independent and virus-independent structure (few demographic, social and virological data are used to fix some parameters), its large statistic due to a very short run-time machine, and its easy generalizability to include mitigation strategies. In spite of its simplicity, the model presented reproduces the epidemiological Italian data, with sensible predictions for the reproduction number and theoretically interesting results for the generation time distribution.
PMID: 21337015 [PubMed - in process]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21337015