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A second A(H1N1) outbreak emerges in Taiwan, says CDC

Shiloh

Editor, Senior Moderator
Source: http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news...ng_news&cate_img=316.jpg&cate_rss=news_Health

A second A(H1N1) outbreak emerges in Taiwan, says CDC
The CDC cautions that the pandemic has now striken Taiwan again for the second time, as the peak will be seen in November: CECC

Central News Agency
Page 3
2009-10-15 12:00 AM

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) warned yesterday that a second wave of the influenza A(H1N1) outbreak is emerging in Taiwan after the previous one peaked in early September.

According to CDC Director-General Steve Kuo, the H1N1 situation has been moderating over the past five weeks since the previous peak but a slight jump in the number of patients diagnosed with the new flu strain recently signals the beginning of the second wave.

Statistics released yesterday by the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) show that there was one more patient hospitalized with the H1N1 flu strain than a day earlier, bringing to 355 the total number of such cases since the outbreak began.

While 16 of the patients remained in the hospital, 315 had recovered and been discharged, and 24 others had died, the CECC said.

Meanwhile, 442 classes in 294 schools around the country remained suspended because of H1N1 infections among students. The number of affected classes accounted for 0.29 percent of the total, according to the CECC.

Epidemiologists have predicted that the second peak would appear in November.

Department of Health (DOH) Minister Yaung Chih-liang said it is hard to predict when the peak will be.

Yaung said that the DOH will continue to monitor the situation closely.

To help the public prepare for the epidemic, the DOH will distribute 5 million masks in inventory to 100,000 low-income families.

The distribution will begin on Nov. 1, Yaung said.

Also, the CECC is expected to make public details regarding its H1N1 vaccination program this coming Tuesday.

The designated day was selected because the results of human clinical trials for the H1N1 vaccine produced by local vaccine manufacturer Adimmune Corp. are expected to be released on that day, DOH Deputy Minister Chang Shen-chwen said.

Now people under 10 years of age will probably have to receive two shots.

Furthermore, those aged 10 years and older will likely need only one shot to be protected against the H1N1 virus, Chang said.
 
Re: A second A(H1N1) outbreak emerges in Taiwan, says CDC

According to Taiwan's CDC the H1N1 viral total isolation rate is 6.06% for Week 42, and are "Providing a weekly updated status of respiratory tract virus INF-A+INF-B isolation at the contract laboratories starting from the 41st week of 2004 till the most recent week..."
http://www.cdc.gov.tw/public/Data/9101611223871.pdf
http://www.cdc.gov.tw/public/Attachment/910139583871.pdf
http://www.cdc.gov.tw/lp.asp?ctNode=948&CtUnit=362&BaseDSD=7&mp=5

"Although after the first peak of domestic epidemic was reached in early September, 2009, the number of influenza A (H1N1) cases that occurred in Taiwan has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, it is predicted that the epidemic in Taiwan will increase based on the surveillance data collected by the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC)."
http://www.cdc.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=25919&ctNode=960&mp=5
 
Re: A second A(H1N1) outbreak emerges in Taiwan, says CDC

Speculation until it actually occurs, but if a second peak is coming so soon after the first, what is driving it now? Antigneic shift? Change in weather?
 
Re: A second A(H1N1) outbreak emerges in Taiwan, says CDC

I don't see the 2nd wave yet on the charts
 

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Re: A second A(H1N1) outbreak emerges in Taiwan, says CDC

I don't see the 2nd wave yet on the charts

There's a later chart

http://flu.cdc.gov.tw/public/Data/9101311334571.pdf

Taiwan Influenza Express
H1N1 Central Epidemic Command Center 2009, week 41 (10/4?10/10)
Summary
During week 41 (October 4?10, 2009), influenza activity increased in Taiwan.
 Of the 654 specimens tested during week 39?41, 231 (35%) were positive for influenza
viruses, and 220 (34%) were positive for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 viruses; 97% (95%
confidence interval 94%?99%) of all subtyped influenza A viruses were pandemic (H1N1)
2009 viruses.

t141.png
 
Re: A second A(H1N1) outbreak emerges in Taiwan, says CDC

looks more like a small delay in the downtrend to me

do we have a chart for Guangdong or the whole China mainland ?
 
Re: A second A(H1N1) outbreak emerges in Taiwan, says CDC

looks more like a small delay in the downtrend to me

do we have a chart for Guangdong or the whole China mainland ?

They should be here http://www.flu.org.cn/en/default.html but doesn't seem to have been updated since May.

As to Taiwan they obviously don't think it's just a small delay as they expect a second peak in November and are distributing masks to the entire population who can't afford to buy their own.
 
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