tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Biol Dyn. 2013 May 24. [Epub ahead of print]
A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift.
Alfaro-Murillo JA, Towers S, Feng Z.
Source
a Department of Mathematics , Purdue University , West Lafayette , IN , USA.
Abstract
We describe a multiple strain Susceptible Infected Recovered deterministic model for the spread of an influenza subtype within a population. The model incorporates appearance of new strains due to antigenic drift, and partial immunity to reinfection with related circulating strains. It also includes optional seasonal forcing of the transmission rate of the virus, which allows for comparison between temperate zones and the tropics. Our model is capable of reproducing observed qualitative patterns such as the overall annual outbreaks in the temperate region, a reduced magnitude and an increased frequency of outbreaks in the tropics, and the herald wave phenomenon. Our approach to modelling antigenic drift is novel and further modifications of this model may help improve the understanding of complex influenza dynamics.
PMID:
23701386
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23701386
A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift.
Alfaro-Murillo JA, Towers S, Feng Z.
Source
a Department of Mathematics , Purdue University , West Lafayette , IN , USA.
Abstract
We describe a multiple strain Susceptible Infected Recovered deterministic model for the spread of an influenza subtype within a population. The model incorporates appearance of new strains due to antigenic drift, and partial immunity to reinfection with related circulating strains. It also includes optional seasonal forcing of the transmission rate of the virus, which allows for comparison between temperate zones and the tropics. Our model is capable of reproducing observed qualitative patterns such as the overall annual outbreaks in the temperate region, a reduced magnitude and an increased frequency of outbreaks in the tropics, and the herald wave phenomenon. Our approach to modelling antigenic drift is novel and further modifications of this model may help improve the understanding of complex influenza dynamics.
PMID:
23701386
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23701386