9 killed, 12 missing as Typhoon Mindulle hits Vietnam

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Western Pacific - Tropical Storm Six

wdpn31 pgtw 230300msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 06w warning nr 04//rmks/1.
For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis. A.

Tropical Storm (TS) 06w (six), located approximately 180nm south-southeast of hainan, has tracked west-northwestward at 11knots over the past six hours.

Recent animated visible satelliteimagery shows convective banding wrapping around a low levelcirculation center (LLCC).

A 222211z SSMI microwave image depictsdeep convection forming around the eastern periphery of a looselywrapped LLCC with the majority of deep convection in the southernsemicircle.

There is low confidence in the initial position, whichis based on the SSMI image. The initial intensity is based on pgtw,knes, and rjtd Dvorak estimates of 35 knots.

Although deepconvection has started to develop on the eastern side of the system,there is still an upper level trough to the north of the LLCCcausing subsidence and slow development.

The upper level trough isalso significantly hindering poleward outflow, while equatorwardoutflow remains good. 3. Forecast reasoning. A. This forecast philosophy is similar to the previous prognosticreasoning. B.

Ts 06w is expected to continue tracking west-northwestwardalong the southwestern periphery of a subtropical steering ridgeanchored over Japan through an area of low vertical wind shear andhigh ocean heat content.

The upper level trough to the north isforecast to continue to fill and allow for gradual intensification.After tau 24, land interaction should disrupt the low level inflowand cause slight weakening. Ts 06w is expected to make landfallsouth of hanoi, Vietnam after tau 48 and turn westward with the lowlevel steering flow as it weakens. C. By tau 96, ts 06w should dissipate as a significant tropicalcyclone over the mountainous terrain of northern Vietnam.

Currentnumerical model guidance is in good agreement except for NOGAPS,GFDN, and WBAR which turn the system farther northward after aroundtau 36.

These models are forecasting an upper level, mid-latitudetrough to weaken the steering ridge more so than the other models.However, this forecast is in agreement with the ECMWF, EGRR and JGSMmodels.//

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp201006.disc.html






</PRE>

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Re: Western Pacific - Tropical Storm Mindulle moving towards the coast of Vietnam

Re: Western Pacific - Tropical Storm Mindulle moving towards the coast of Vietnam

Wdpn31 pgtw 231500z
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen pearl harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 06w warning nr 06//
rmks/

1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.

A. Tropical storm (ts) 06w (mindulle), located approximately 135
nm south-southwest of hainan, has tracked west-northwestward at 10
knots over the past six hours. Recent animated infrared satellite
imagery and a 231137z 91 ghz ssmis microwave image indicate enhanced
central convection with tightly curved convective banding wrapping
into a well defined low level circulation center (llcc) from all
quadrants. There is fair confidence in the position based on the
aforementioned ssmis microwave image. The current intensity is
slightly higher then previously forecasted and is based on dvorak
estimates ranging from 45 to 55 knots from pgtw, knes, and rjtd.

Environmental analysis reveals that the system is in an area of
light (10-15 knots) easterly vertical wind shear (vws), enhanced
diffluence aloft, and continues to track over an area of favorable
sea surface temperatures (>30 degrees c).

3. Forecast reasoning.

A. While not reflecting a change in forecast philosophy, the peak
intensity has been increased to 55 knots based on an improving upper
level environment (increased outflow and decreased vws) associated
with the filling of an upper level trough to the north of ts 06w
that had been suppressing convection.

B. Ts 06w is forecast to continue tracking west-northwestward,
and intensify slightly, under the influence of the subtropical
steering ridge anchored over japan. Between tau 24 and tau 36, ts
06w is expected to make landfall in the vicinity of central vietnam.

After tau 36, mountainous terrain along the coast of vietnam should
disrupt the low level flow and weaken the system. By tau 72 ts
mindulle is forecast to dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone.

Numerical model guidance is in good agreement with the exception of
nogaps and gfdn, which forecast a weaknening of the steering ridge
and drive the system northward. This forecast is in good agreement
with model consensus, egrr, ecmwf, jgsm, and gfs which favor a more
west-northwestward track.//
NNNN

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0610prog.txt

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/06W_231132sair.jpg

 

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Re: Western Pacific - Tropical Storm Mindulle moving towards the coast of Vietnam

Re: Western Pacific - Tropical Storm Mindulle moving towards the coast of Vietnam

Vietnam Says 137 Fishermen Missing as Tropical Storm Mindulle Approaches

<CITE class=byline>By Stuart Biggs -<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>document.write(dateFormat(new Date(1282635002000),"mmm d, yyyy h:MM TT Z"));</SCRIPT> Aug 24, 2010 2:30 AM CT</CITE>

Vietnam?s government said as many as 137 fishermen are missing as Tropical Storm Mindulle churned its way across the South China Sea toward the country?s east coast with maximum sustained winds of 111 kilometers per hour.

Vietnam?s Border Guard High Command was unable to contact 10 fishing boats with the fishermen on board, the government said in a statement. Around 1,500 fishing boats with 7,600 fishermen were ordered back to port, the National Committee for Flood and Storm Control said in a separate statement.

Tropical Storm Mindulle is expected to make landfall at about 7 p.m. Hanoi time today close to the city of Vinh, south of the capital. The storm was 173 kilometers (107 miles) southeast of Vinh, Vietnam, at about 7 a.m. Hanoi time, the U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center said on its website.

The storm is dumping heavy rain on Vietnam?s east coast, Vietnam?s National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said on its website.

The government warned the rain may cause flooding and mudslides, and ordered the evacuation of people in high-risk areas including river mouths.

Mindulle?s was moving northwest in the South China Sea at 22 kilometers per hour and is forecast to maintain strength as it approaches land, the center said. Mindulle, the Korean word for dandelion, will be upgraded to a typhoon if winds exceed 117 kilometers per hour.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stuart Biggs in Tokyo at sbiggs3@bloomberg.net;

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ng-as-tropical-storm-mindulle-approaches.html

 

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Re: Western Pacific - Tropical Storm Mindulle moving towards the coast of Vietnam

Re: Western Pacific - Tropical Storm Mindulle moving towards the coast of Vietnam

<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=7>Ghi ch? h?nh ảnh:</TD></TR><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 15%" align=right>

</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80%" colSpan=6>V?ng c? thể c? gi? mạnh lớn hơn cấp 6</TD></TR><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 15%" align=right>

</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80%" colSpan=6>V?ng c? thể c? gi? mạnh lớn hơn cấp 10</TD></TR><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 15%" align=right>

</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80%" colSpan=6>V?ng t?m b?o c? thể đi qua</TD></TR><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 15%" align=right>

</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80%" colSpan=6>Vị tr? t?m b?o đ? qua</TD></TR><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 15%" align=right>

</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80%" colSpan=6>Vị tr? t?m b?o dự b?o</TD></TR><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 15%" align=right>

</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 80%" colSpan=6>Vị tr? t?m ?p thấp nhiệt đới đ? qua</TD></TR><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 15%" align=right>

</TD><TD colSpan=6>Vị tr? t?m ?p thấp nhiệt đới dự b?o</TD></TR><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 15%" colSpan=7>*Bản tin tiếp theo được ph?t v?o l?c 09:30 chiều, 24/08/2010</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 borderColor=#00a9e0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=storm_imageName width="50%">Ch?m ảnh đường đi v? vị tr? cơn b?o</TD><TD class=storm_imageName_gach width="50%"></TD></TR><TR><TD class=storm_imageName_box colSpan=2><SCRIPT language=javascript src="/web/Scripts/slideshow.js"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT type=text/javascript>SLIDES = new slideshow("SLIDES");s = new slide();s.src="/web/images/imageresize.aspx?viewLevel=1&imgPath=Upload/Storm_Image/2010/8/24/2409.gif";s.link = "http://www.khituongvietnam.gov.vn/web/Upload/Storm_Image/2010/8/24/2409.gif";s.title = "";SLIDES.add_slide(s);for (var i=0; i < SLIDES.slides.length; i++) {s = SLIDES.slides;s.target = "ss_popup";s.attr = "width=800,height=600,resizable=yes,scrollbars=yes";}</SCRIPT><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" bgColor=#f1f1f1><TBODY><TR><TD height=400></TD></TR><TR><TD><INPUT style="WIDTH: 100px; HEIGHT: 25px" class=button_flat onclick=SLIDES.previous() value="<< Ảnh Trước" type=button> <!--<INPUT TYPE="button" VALUE="Start" onClick="SLIDES.next();SLIDES.play()" class="button" style="WIDTH:100px;HEIGHT:40px"> --><INPUT style="WIDTH: 100px; HEIGHT: 25px" id=btStop class=button_flat onclick=SLIDES.pausepaly() value=Dừng type=button> <INPUT style="WIDTH: 100px; HEIGHT: 25px" class=button_flat onclick=SLIDES.next() value="Ảnh Kế Tiếp >>" type=button>
http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/vi-VN/104/23/5426/Default.aspx


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Re: Western Pacific - Tropical Storm Mindulle moving towards the coast of Vietnam

Re: Western Pacific - Tropical Storm Mindulle moving towards the coast of Vietnam

Hurricane Season 2010: Mindulle (Northwestern Pacific)
08.24.10


<!--Promo date and doctitle ends-->August 24, 2010

> View larger image
This infrared image of Mindulle's clouds from NASA's Aqua satellite was captured on August 23 at 18:35 UTC (2:23 p.m. EDT) and shows a tightly compact cyclone close to making landfall in Vietnam. The strongest convection (and thunderstorms) are colored in purple and appear as a large circle in the inside of the storm. The purple coloration indicates highest cloud tops as cold as or colder than -63 Fahrenheit.
Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen NASA Satellite Sees Tropical Storm Mindulle Make Landfall in Vietnam

Tropical Storm Mindulle came ashore in central Vietnam today, August 24 and brought heavy rainfall and gusty winds with it. NASA's Aqua satellite captured strong convection and thunderstorms in Mindulle's center before it made landfall close to the city of Vinh, south of the capital. Now, Mindulle is encountering rugged, mountainous terrain as it continues to move inland.

On August 23 at 18:35 UTC (2:23 p.m. EDT) NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument captured an infrared image of Mindulle's cloud temperatures. The image showed a rounded, compact cyclone, whose center was close to the Vietnam coast. The strongest convection (and thunderstorms) appeared as a large circle in the inside of the storm and indicated highest cloud tops as cold as or colder than -63 Fahrenheit.

At 1200 UTC (8 a.m. EDT) on August 24, Mindulle's center came ashore. Mindulle had maximum sustained winds near 46 mph (40 knots) and higher gusts. It was located near 19.2 North and 105.2 East, just south of the city of Vinh, and about 115 miles south-southwest of Hanoi, Vietnam. Mindulle continues to track west-northwestward at about 9 mph (8 knots), and is expected to dissipate sometime on Wednesday, August 25.

At the Vinh Airport at 9:30 a.m. EDT on August 24 weather conditions included heavy rain, temperature near 75 degrees Fahrenheit, winds at 18 mph from the south-southwest, and air pressure at 29.31 inches and rising, which indicates that the low-level center of Mindulle was already moving west of Vinh at that time. Although Mindulle's rains may cause flooding, they can be beneficial to various reservoirs in Vietnam that are deficient in water.

Mindulle's rainfall was covering most of Vietnam stretching from the city of Hai Phong in the north, all the way south to the city of Tua Hoa. Mindulle's rainfall also extended west into Laos, Thailiand and Cambodia, and was moving toward those countries today.

Text credit: Rob Gutro, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2010/h2010_93Wb.html

 

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9 killed, 12 missing as Typhoon Mindulle hits Vietnam

9 killed, 12 missing as Typhoon Mindulle hits Vietnam

Agence France-Presse
First Posted 04:23:00 08/26/2010

Filed Under: Weather

HANOI?At least nine people have been killed and 12 left missing after Typhoon Mindulle hit central Vietnam, an official said Wednesday.

Ten fishermen were among those missing, said the official from the national committee for flood and storm control, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The victims came from a strip of the coast from Thanh Hoa province to Quang Tri, with Nghe An province worst affected, the official said, adding that it was not yet possible to assess the damage to property.

.../

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breaki...d-12-missing-as-Typhoon-Mindulle-hits-Vietnam