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50% of Americans expect first BF cases in US this year

4-ABBA

Well-known member
(see bolded text 2/3 the way down)

Poll: Americans see gloom, doom in 2007
By DARLENE SUPERVILLE, Associated Press Writer
Sun Dec 31, 6:11 PM ET

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061231/ap_on_re_us/2007_predictions_ap_poll

WASHINGTON - Another terrorist attack, a warmer planet, death and destruction from a natural disaster. These are among Americans' grim predictions for the United States in 2007.

Only a minority of people think the U.S. will go to war with Iran or North Korea over those countries' nuclear ambitions. An overwhelming majority of those surveyed think Congress will raise the federal minimum wage. One-third see hope for a cure to cancer.

These are among the findings of an Associated Press-AOL News poll that asked people in the U.S. to contemplate what 2007 holds for the country.

Six in 10 people think the U.S. will be the victim of a terrorist attack. An identical percentage thinks it likely that a biological or nuclear weapon will be unleashed somewhere else in the world.

Seventy percent of people in the U.S. predict a major natural disaster in the country and an equal percentage expects worsening global warming. Also, 29 percent think it likely that the U.S. will withdraw its troops from Iraq.

Among other predictions for the U.S. in 2007:

_35 percent predict the military draft will be reinstated.

_35 percent predict a cure for cancer will be found.

_25 percent anticipate the second coming of Jesus Christ.

_19 percent think scientists are likely to find evidence of extraterrestrial life.

With Democrats poised to take control of Congress this week, eight in 10 people predict lawmakers will raise the $5.15-an-hour federal minimum wage. It would be the first increase since 1997.

Democratic leaders have proposed raising it in stages to $7.25 an hour. President Bush has said he supports the idea, with some protections for small businesses.

Fewer than half the public think it likely the U.S. will go to war with Iran or North Korea. Should it come down to that, 40 percent think the battle will be with Iran while 26 percent said North Korea.

Higher gas prices, legalized gay marriage and the possible arrival of bird flu also are seen as being in the cards.

More than 90 percent of people think higher gas prices are likely. A gallon of self-serve regular gasoline averaged $2.29 last week, compared with $3 over the summer.

Also, 57 percent said it is likely that another state will legalize gay marriage. Same-sex marriage is legal in Massachusetts; four other states offer civil unions or domestic partnerships.

People were split on whether 2007 will bring the U.S. its first bird flu case. More than 150 people worldwide have died from the disease. Health officials fear a pandemic if the virus mutates into a form easily passed from person to person.

Women generally were more likely than men to expect some of the more dire predictions to come true, such as a worldwide terrorist attack and war with Iran or North Korea. Democrats and people under 35 were more likely than Republicans and older people to say global warming will worsen in 2007.

The telephone poll of 1,000 adults was conducted Dec. 12-14 by Ipsos, an international polling firm. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

___

AP Manager of News Surveys Trevor Tompson, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and writer Kasie Hunt contributed to this report.
 
Re: 50% of Americans expect first BF cases in US this year

I assume that means birdflu cases in humans, not birds.
 
Re: 50% of Americans expect first BF cases in US this year

summary:

US-people expect for 2007:

60% terrorist attack in USA
60% biological or nuclear weapon unleashed worldwide
70% major natural disaster in USA
70% worsening of global warming
29% US withdraw its troops from Iraq
35% military draft will be reinstated
35% cure for cancer found
25% second coming of Jesus Christ
19% evidence of extraterrestrial life
80% lawmakers raise the $5.15-an-hour federal minimum wage
~25% US go to war with Iran
~15% US go to war with North Korea
~91% higher gas prices
57% another state legalize gay marriage
50% bird flu case in USA

More women expect worldwide terrorist attack and war with Iran or North Korea.
More Democrats and young people expect global warming to worsen
 
Re: 50% of Americans expect first BF cases in US this year

GSGS - Excellent summary, but a minor correction: The article stated:

"...a biological or nuclear weapon will be unleashed somewhere else in the world." Not worldwide.

gsgs said:
summary:

US-people expect for 2007:

60% terrorist attack in USA
60% biological or nuclear weapon unleashed worldwide
70% major natural disaster in USA
70% worsening of global warming
29% US withdraw its troops from Iraq
35% military draft will be reinstated
35% cure for cancer found
25% second coming of Jesus Christ
19% evidence of extraterrestrial life
80% lawmakers raise the $5.15-an-hour federal minimum wage
~25% US go to war with Iran
~15% US go to war with North Korea
~91% higher gas prices
57% another state legalize gay marriage
50% bird flu case in USA

More women expect worldwide terrorist attack and war with Iran or North Korea.
More Democrats and young people expect global warming to worsen
 
Re: 50% of Americans expect first BF cases in US this year

4-ABBA said:
The telephone poll of 1,000 adults was conducted Dec. 12-14 by Ipsos, an international polling firm. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

That fact that the margin of error was only 3 percentage points has no bearing on the validity or scientific basis of the poll. Polls can, and often are, manipulated to achieve a particular outcome. We are not privy to the nature of polling processes or the questions asked. Were they open-ended questions or were the respondents ask to select choices from an existing list.

For example, suppose you were asked "Which of the following events do you think is likely to occur in 2007?" Choose only one.

A) All the people that died on December 31st will be resurrected on January 15th, 2007.

B) The core at the center of the earth will begin a thermonuclear reaction and the earth will be vaporized by an atomic explosion before the end of 2007.

C) Somewhere, sometime during 2007, the U.S. will be a victim of terrorists attacks.

With such a leading question it would not be hard to generate an outcome like "six out of 10 poeple think the U.S. will be a victim of terrorist attack." Without further information from the pollsters, this poll is suspect.

Notice that the poll didn't ask about concern for death from car accidents, lung cancer, and heart disease all of which will happen and will have a real effect effect on many people in 2007. This poll by Ipsos only helps to sell sensationalistic news.

An interesting sidelight is that the operating margins of the polling company, Ipsos, were up by 36.2% in September. They state that this growth is due to "the company's ability to win market share from a large number of client sectors".

see:

http://www.ipsos.com/docs/pdf/finance_2006/Resultats_1er_sem_2006_VA.pdf
 
Re: 50% of Americans expect first BF cases in US this year

Al - I agree. It is easy to create a poll to evoke the response that is desired.

"Wording of questions

It is well established that the wording of the questions, the order in which they are asked and the number and form of alternative answers offered can influence results of polls. Thus comparisons between polls often boil down to the wording of the question. On some issues, question wording can result in quite pronounced differences between surveys. [3][4][5] This can also, however, be a result of legitimately conflicted feelings or evolving attitudes, rather than a poorly constructed survey.[6] One way in which pollsters attempt to minimize this effect is to ask the same set of questions over time, in order to track changes in opinion. Another common technique is to rotate the order in which questions are asked. Many pollsters also split-sample. This involves having two different versions of a question, with each version presented to half the respondents.
The most effective controls, used by attitude researchers, are:
  • asking enough questions to allow all aspects of an issue to be covered and to control effects due to the form of the question (such as positive or negative wording), the adequacy of the number being established quantitatively with psychometric measures such as reliability coefficients, and
  • analyzing the results with psychometric techniques which synthesize the answers into a few reliable scores and detect ineffective questions.
These controls are not widely used in the polling industry."


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll
 
Re: 50% of Americans expect first BF cases in US this year

It would be interesting to see how past similar polls rated in their long-term accuracy. I don't put much stock in WAGs. There are only 4 to 5 items on the list that I think are probably.

.
 
Re: 50% of Americans expect first BF cases in US this year

4-ABBA, they mean wordwide, except USA ?
I can no longer edit it.
 
Re: 50% of Americans expect first BF cases in US this year

gsgs said:
4-ABBA, they mean wordwide, except USA ?
I can no longer edit it.

Hi GSGS...the words "An identical percentage thinks it likely that a biological or nuclear weapon will be unleashed somewhere else in the world" mean that people thought that a nuclear or biological attack would happen somewhere in the world-- but not in the US.

I would also like to mention in passing that it is interesting how we humans tend to question the legitimacy of a poll more often when we dislike the results.
 
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