• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Influenza viruses

There are two parts to the influenza surveillance system in New Zealand, one is general practice (GP) sentinel surveillance and the other is laboratory-based surveillance.
(top)
Sentinel Surveillance

The sentinel surveillance system commenced in 1991 as part of the WHO (World Health Organisation) global programme for influenza surveillance. It is operated nationally by ESR and locally by surveillance co-ordinators within the public health service in each health district. The system operates during the 'influenza season', from May through September each year.

It is based on a network of voluntary sentinel GPs distributed on a population density basis of approximately 1 per 50,000. Sentinel General Practices carry out both disease and virological surveillance. Each sentinel practice records the daily number of consultations that fit a case definition for an influenza-like illness (ILI), along with the patient's age, on a standardised reporting sheet.

The influenza case definition is "an acute respiratory tract infection characterized by an abrupt onset of two of the following: fever, chills, headache and myalgia". This data is either collected by phone, or forwarded by fax each Friday. Consultation rates are calculated using the number of consultations as the numerator and the sum of the patient populations, reported by the participating practices, as the denominator.

The national level of ILI activity is described using a set of threshold values: a weekly rate of 50-249 consultations per 100,000 patient population is considered indicative of normal seasonal activity; 250-399 indicates higher than expected activity, and >= 400 indicates an epidemic level of disease.

Each sentinel practice also provides respiratory samples from the first patient seen with an ILI on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of each week, which are forwarded to four regional virus diagnostic laboratories at Auckland, Waikato, Christchurch and Dunedin hospital and ESR virology laboratory for virus isolation and identification.

Weekly consultation data, along with virus isolation data, are forwarded by local co-ordinators to ESR each Monday. Collated national data are presented in reports weekly, monthly and annually. (top)
Laboratory-based Surveillance

The year-round laboratory-based surveillance of influenza and other viruses, is carried out by the four regional laboratories and by the ESR virology laboratory. These laboratories report all virus diagnoses made, largely from hospital in-patients and outpatients, to ESR. These data are reported nationally in the ESR Virology Weekly Report.
(top)


http://www.surv.esr.cri.nz/public_health_surveillance/influenza.php
 
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Why are there so many unsubtyped Type A virus samples showing in Canterbury?
 
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

from:
http://www.surv.esr.cri.nz/virology/influenza_weekly_update.php


attachment.php



about 50% of flu in NZ is newflu

it adds to oldflu, at some point in some weeks they
should weaken each other


week 25 ends 27.June according to CDC
have they different weeks-enumeration in NZ ?
week 26 is not in the July-range in the picture
Can they really have week 26 already ?
 

Attachments

  • ilinz1.jpg
    ilinz1.jpg
    31.2 KB · Views: 1
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Week 27:
Most of novel influenza AH1N1 09 viruses reported globally are sensitive to oseltamivir with only 3 isolated cases reported from Denmark, Japan and Hong Kong showing oseltamivir resistance. During this winter season in New Zealand, a total of 16 novel influenza AH1N1 09 viruses were tested by either a phenotypic assay or a molecular assay and all 16 viruses were sensitive to oseltamivir.
 
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

3 times the rate of previous seasons:
(NZ-week 27 ends 05.July)

attachment.php
 

Attachments

  • nz27.jpg
    nz27.jpg
    32 KB · Views: 1
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Nice chart find!... 3 Times is crazy, I bet it goes higher.
 
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Does anybody have an updated link for this? It doesn't seem to be available any more.

She says about 80% of people with flu in the week to 5 July had swine flu rather than seasonal flu.

Weekly influenza reports are compiled each winter for the Environmental Science & Research agency. Dr Huang says they are particularly important this year because of swine flu.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=115006
 
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5CUser%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><link rel="Edit-Time-Data" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5CUser%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_editdata.mso"><!--[if !mso]> <style> v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} .shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} </style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-AU;} p.MsoBodyText, li.MsoBodyText, div.MsoBodyText {margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:none; font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB;} @page Section1 {size:612.0pt 792.0pt; margin:72.0pt 90.0pt 72.0pt 90.0pt; mso-header-margin:36.0pt; mso-footer-margin:36.0pt; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> One hundred and sixty-seven swabs were sent from the sentinel surveillance in the past week. Two hundred and ten swabs were received by the virology laboratories. Of these, 85 influenza viruses were identified: novel influenza AH1N1 09 virus (68), seasonal influenza A virus (13), and seasonal influenza AH1N1 virus (4). The distribution by health district is shown in Table 1.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Table 1: Influenza viruses from sentinel surveillance for week 27 by Health District<o:p></o:p>
<!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"/> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"/> </v:formulas> <v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t"/> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="_x0000_i1025" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:480pt; height:57pt'> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\User\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.emz" o:title=""/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="f"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]-->
clip_image002.gif
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
Data received from 4/5 virology laboratories.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
The accumulative influenza viruses are shown in figure 4 for sentinel surveillance by health district from week 18 (27 April-3 May) to week 27 (5 July). A total of 194 influenza viruses were identified: novel influenza AH1N1 09 virus (94), seasonal influenza A virus (41), seasonal influenza AH1N1 virus (41), seasonal influenza AH3N2 virus (8), A/Brisbane/59/2007 (H1N1)-like virus (7), influenza A (not sub-typed) (2), and B (not typed) (1).


ESR site is down - but I have contacted them and they have emailed me a copy of the full stats. PM me if you would like more info posted.
 
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

compare with the 2004 influenza (Fujian-H3N2) epidemic in the UK
nz27c2-attachment

that suggests a peak in week 28 or 29 and then a sharp decline



--------edit-----------
hmm, the thresholds were revised, this graph looks quite
different:
http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1194947381241

not much increase in 2004/2005 in UK in that graph

-----------edit-------------
OTOH compare with NZ-2003 , 4 weeks increase and then it went down.
So next week could be already going down ...

nz2003-attachment
 

Attachments

  • nz27c2.jpg
    nz27c2.jpg
    111.8 KB · Views: 1
  • nz2003.jpg
    nz2003.jpg
    40.3 KB · Views: 1
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

It's just my personal opionion, but the vast majority of New Zealanders haven't had novel H1N1 yet and most aren't doing anything that will lessen their likelihood of catching it. I know very few people that have had it.

In other years we haven't had a completely immunologically naive population - either people have some immunity from a virus that has circulated before or they've had this years injection.

Due to this I don't expect a decline in cases anytime soon. I think it's stll quite some way from "peaking".
 
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

News reports seem to suggest a predicted peak in August for Canterbury and September for Auckland.
 
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

Schools going back next week should increase the spread!
 
Re: 2009 Influenza Sentinel Surveillance - ESR

more.
News reports seem to suggest a predicted peak in August for Canterbury and September for Auckland.

On the local television news report, which has not been updated online yet, the reporter claims experts are not expecting the flu season here to peak until mid August, perhaps even late August.

Swine flu overwhelms Christchurch hospital

All elective cardiac surgery in Canterbury has been postponed as swine flu overwhelms Christchurch Hospital's intensive care unit (ICU).....

Canterbury Employers' Chamber of Commerce chief executive Peter Townsend said more than 847,000 weeks of labour could be lost if the infection rate reached the predicted 30 per cent peak.......

Townsend believed absence rates would rise. "Those issues are starting to increase and we're expecting it to peak somewhere around late August or early September."
 
Back
Top