Gert van der Hoek
In Memoriam - Editor, Senior Moderator
Emerg Infect Dis. 2004 Jan;10(1):40-7.
Ecologic and geographic distribution of filovirus disease.
Abstract
We used ecologic niche modeling of outbreaks and sporadic cases of filovirus-associated hemorrhagic fever (HF) to provide a large-scale perspective on the geographic and ecologic distributions of Ebola and Marburg viruses. We predicted that filovirus would occur across the Afrotropics: Ebola HF in the humid rain forests of central and western Africa, and Marburg HF in the drier and more open areas of central and eastern Africa. Most of the predicted geographic extent of Ebola HF has been observed; Marburg HF has the potential to occur farther south and east. Ecologic conditions appropriate for Ebola HF are also present in Southeast Asia and the Philippines, where Ebola Reston is hypothesized to be distributed. This first large-scale ecologic analysis provides a framework for a more informed search for taxa that could constitute the natural reservoir for this virus family.
Summary of known and predicted geography of filoviruses in Africa.
(A) Known occurrence points of filovirus hemorrhagic fevers (HFs) identified by virus species.
(B) Geographic projection of ecologic niche model based on all known filovirus disease occurrences in Africa.
(C) Geographic projection of ecologic niche model based on all known Ebola HF occurrences (i.e., eliminating Marburg HF occurrences).
(D) Geographic projection of ecologic niche model based on all known occurrences of Marburg HF (i.e., eliminating Ebola HF occurrences).
Darker shades of red represent increasing confidence in prediction of potential presence.
Open squares, Ebola Ivory Coast; circles, Ebola Zaire; triangles, Ebola Sudan; dotted squares, Marburg HF occurrences.
Full article
.
Ecologic and geographic distribution of filovirus disease.
Abstract
We used ecologic niche modeling of outbreaks and sporadic cases of filovirus-associated hemorrhagic fever (HF) to provide a large-scale perspective on the geographic and ecologic distributions of Ebola and Marburg viruses. We predicted that filovirus would occur across the Afrotropics: Ebola HF in the humid rain forests of central and western Africa, and Marburg HF in the drier and more open areas of central and eastern Africa. Most of the predicted geographic extent of Ebola HF has been observed; Marburg HF has the potential to occur farther south and east. Ecologic conditions appropriate for Ebola HF are also present in Southeast Asia and the Philippines, where Ebola Reston is hypothesized to be distributed. This first large-scale ecologic analysis provides a framework for a more informed search for taxa that could constitute the natural reservoir for this virus family.
Summary of known and predicted geography of filoviruses in Africa.
(A) Known occurrence points of filovirus hemorrhagic fevers (HFs) identified by virus species.
(B) Geographic projection of ecologic niche model based on all known filovirus disease occurrences in Africa.
(C) Geographic projection of ecologic niche model based on all known Ebola HF occurrences (i.e., eliminating Marburg HF occurrences).
(D) Geographic projection of ecologic niche model based on all known occurrences of Marburg HF (i.e., eliminating Ebola HF occurrences).
Darker shades of red represent increasing confidence in prediction of potential presence.
Open squares, Ebola Ivory Coast; circles, Ebola Zaire; triangles, Ebola Sudan; dotted squares, Marburg HF occurrences.
Full article
.