Discussion thread: H5N1 avian flu in US dairy cows including human cases (poultry, dairy workers) - March 24, 2024 +

[Pathfinder]

H5N1 could combine with seasonal flu to create a more dangerous virus strain
...
Maeve Cullinan
Global Health Security Reporter
10 October 2024 7:01pm BST

The risk of H5N1 combining with seasonal flu to create a more dangerous strain of the virus will increase dramatically this winter, a major disease-tracking platform has predicted.
...
According to preliminary modelling by analytics firm Airfinity, the risk of H5N1 reassorting this winter will increase by five-fold compared with the summer months, due to the onset of seasonal flu.
...
Reassortment through coinfection

Early evidence suggests the effectiveness of the 2024 seasonal flu vaccine might be as low as 35 per cent, studies by the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) of the recent flu season in the Southern Hemisphere have shown.

Coupled with a low uptake of the vaccine, which would leave more people at risk of catching the flu, these factors raise the risk of reassortment taking place, said Connor Browne, a biorisk consultant.
​...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...5n1-combine-seasonal-influenza-outbreak-risk/

 

[Commonground]

October 11, 2024
'Shocking': Bird-Flu Infected Cattle Dumped at California Roadside

Footage obtained by Newsweek from a California veterinarian shows dead dairy cows infected with avian influenza piled by the roadside without any biosecurity measures or warning signs​
What was so shocking was that there was so little signage around anywhere telling the public about avian influenza and warning them of the biosecurity risks," Heather told Newsweek.

The videos, captured on Oct. 8 by veterinarian Crystal Heather, shows the pile of deceased dairy cows outside Mendonsa Farms, just south of Tulare, California.
-snip-
These cows, confirmed to have been infected with avian influenza (H5N1), were left exposed without any warning signs or biosecurity precautions. The footage was deemed too graphic for publication.
​
"I'm worried that wildlife could come into contact with them. We know that cats are susceptible to avian influenza; the first sign that a farm has an infection is often when cats end up dying after they've drunk raw milk."

Anja Raudabaugh, CEO of Western United Dairies—the trade organization representing Mendonsa Farms—confirmed that the dead cattle had succumbed to bird flu.

https://www.newsweek.com/disturbing-footage-reveals-bird-flu-infected-cattle-dumped-roadside-1967813
​

 

[Commonground]

[the whole post is well worth the time to read]
Excerpt:

10/11/24
Bird flu is spreading rapidly among California dairy cows. Will milk prices rise?

-snip-
Of bigger concern is the outstanding question of whether infected cows will rebound in their next lactation cycle - after they've had time to "dry out" and heal. According to Payne, at UC Davis, a typical dairy cow milks for about nine months. Milk production is initially stimulated by the birth of a calf. It ramps up in the weeks after birth - peaking between weeks six and 10 - and slowly tapers off over the next several months. While the cow is milking, she is impregnated. Roughly two months before she is to give birth again, she is taken out of the milking barn and "dried out." Then, after she's given birth again, she's put back into the mix. The first cows infected in Texas are only just now reentering the mix, and it's still too early to tell whether those first infected cows will come back to pre-infection production, or stay depressed, Payne said. Donnay said statewide milk production is variable across time, but looking at the 14 states that have had bird flu, there are clear signatures in the data: a marked drop in production that lasts for a few weeks. He said it is clear - from data and his conversations with farmers - that there has been vast under counting of the disease in the nation's dairy herds. He said the explosion being seen in California is partly the result of rapaciousness of the virus, but also an artifact of the state's efforts to test every herd within 6 miles of an infected herd, as well as any herd that has an epidemiological tie with one that's been infected - shared personnel, equipment or veterinarians, for example. He said Colorado was the only other state that exploded in the same way that California has - and again, the high numbers were likely the result of mandated testing. He said when testing was finished in Colorado, somewhere between 60 and 100% of the state's herds had been infected. If the same can be expected for California, he said, the state could be looking northward of 600 cases in the next few weeks. John Korslund, a retired U.S. Department of Agriculture veterinarian epidemiologist, said if that were to happen - and he said he has reason to believe it will - "I would estimate that the California dairy outbreak is the most serious and widespread infectious animal disease outbreak in history."

Read more at: https://www.modbee.com/news/business/article293814314.html#storylink=cpy​

 

[Commonground]

from Post #378 https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...try-dairy-workers-in-2024?p=998461#post998461

Photos of dead cattle show bird flu is overwhelming Tulare County. How did the virus get in?
October 11, 2024


FRESNO, Calif. – Cows in the Central Valley are dying so quickly from bird flu that they are overwhelming standard protocols meant to dispose of carcasses, according to a dairy industry representative.

On Thursday, KVPR obtained photos taken this week of dead cattle and calves that were discarded in the open air near a road at the edge of a dairy farm near the Tulare County community of Tipton.

Crystal Heath, a veterinarian and animal welfare advocate, provided the images. She acknowledged she didn’t know for certain that the cattle had died of bird flu, but questioned why animals would be piled in this way with “no signage warning of the biosecurity hazard.”

On Friday, Anja Raudabaugh, CEO Western United Dairies, an industry group, acknowledged to KVPR that these photos were authentic. She also acknowledged that laying carcasses out in the open and at the periphery of a farm is not standard practice, but that the situation demonstrates the severity of the outbreak.

Without avian influenza, “we would never have had that type of deadpile like that in a public area – and there just wouldn't be that many dead cows,” Raudabaugh said.

-snip-
Raudaubaugh said farmers have no plan to put up warning signs near the carcasses, and that doing so “does not match current biosecurity protocols in any way.”​

... https://www.kvpr.org/health/2024-10...elming-tulare-county-how-did-the-virus-get-in
​

 

[Commonground]

Health officials confirm six infected dairy workers have contracted bird flu at dairies in Central Valley; No reports of fatalities

October 11, 2024
CENTRAL VALLEY – The California Department of Public Health has announced that the fifth and sixth cases of human transmission of bird flu have been confirmed in California.

On Oct. 10, the Tulare County Public Health, in coordination with the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), confirmed another case of H5N1 bird flu. Shortly after that, a fourth case was confirmed, and then on Oct. 11, state health officials confirmed another two cases, bringing the confirmed number of cases up to six, as of report.
​-snip-
CDPH is distributing PPE to dairies affected by bird flu. They have distributed 340,000 respirators, 1.3 million gloves, 160,000 goggles and face shields, and 168,000 bouffant caps to help stop the spread. As part of the effort, the department has received an additional 5,000 doses of seasonal flu vaccine to administer to dairy workers throughout the state. The flu vaccine will not protect against bird flu but reduces the risk of contracting both viruses simultaneously. They are also monitoring wastewater treatment facilities for signs of bird flu.​

... https://thesungazette.com/article/health/2024/10/11/six-cases-of-bird-flu-confirmed-in-california/

 

[sharon sanders]

from Post #378 https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...try-dairy-workers-in-2024?p=998461#post998461

Photos of dead cattle show bird flu is overwhelming Tulare County. How did the virus get in?
October 11, 2024


FRESNO, Calif. – Cows in the Central Valley are dying so quickly from bird flu that they are overwhelming standard protocols meant to dispose of carcasses, according to a dairy industry representative.

On Thursday, KVPR obtained photos taken this week of dead cattle and calves that were discarded in the open air near a road at the edge of a dairy farm near the Tulare County community of Tipton.

Crystal Heath, a veterinarian and animal welfare advocate, provided the images. She acknowledged she didn’t know for certain that the cattle had died of bird flu, but questioned why animals would be piled in this way with “no signage warning of the biosecurity hazard.”

On Friday, Anja Raudabaugh, CEO Western United Dairies, an industry group, acknowledged to KVPR that these photos were authentic. She also acknowledged that laying carcasses out in the open and at the periphery of a farm is not standard practice, but that the situation demonstrates the severity of the outbreak.

Without avian influenza, “we would never have had that type of deadpile like that in a public area – and there just wouldn't be that many dead cows,” Raudabaugh said.

-snip-
Raudaubaugh said farmers have no plan to put up warning signs near the carcasses, and that doing so “does not match current biosecurity protocols in any way.”​

... https://www.kvpr.org/health/2024-10...elming-tulare-county-how-did-the-virus-get-in
​

hat tip @Fla_Medic​

Here is the direct link to the video:

https://x.com/drcrystalheath/status/1844503944816628063


-----------------------------------------

This is so unacceptable that it is impossible to find the words. The protocol to deal with dead H5N1 animals is to dig a pit onsite and put the dead animals in the pit. There are several procedures to be done but then finally the pit is covered over with soil. This is known worldwide.

The US is looking so bad. Embarrassing, unprofessional, inept....

 

[Commonground]

Update: The site is now functioning.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE​
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service​​

Every morning I check the USDA site, and this morning it is not functioning.

 

[blacknail]

Very high levels of Influenza A over the past few days in Turlock CA from WastewaterSCAN. Some have been subtyped and all of those subtyped have been H5. It is entirely possible that this signal is due to non-human infections. Edit, looking into this further, half of the wastewater flow comes from dairy and meat processing at this plant.

https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker/?charts=CicQACABSABSBmFkODZhOVoLSW5mbHVlbnphIEF4qA WKAQZiNjBmYTI%3D&selectedChartId=b60fa2

 

[Commonground]

Avian flu spreading in California raises pandemic threat for humans

​Officials are racing to vaccinate dairy workers against the seasonal flu to prevent the two viruses from combining.
Updated: 10/17/2024 01:01 PM EDT​
SACRAMENTO, California — Health officials across the U.S. are working to prevent a potentially dangerous combination virus as avian flu rips through one of the nation’s largest milk-producing regions during the height of flu season.​

Public health experts have long warned that avian flu poses a significant pandemic threat to humans, and the number of infections among dairy workers in California continues to grow. The timing of the outbreak will soon collide with the seasonal flu, complicating efforts to track bird flu and raising the risk that the two viruses could mix, potentially creating a virulent combo that could spread beyond dairy workers to the rest of the population.
-snip-
But between March 31 and Oct. 14, only 25 individuals in the state have been tested for avian flu, according to CDPH. Workers who are symptomatic are first screened for flu before additional bird-flu-specific testing is performed. California is home to over 17,500 dairy workers, most of whom are in the Central Valley.

The CDC set aside more than 100,000 doses of seasonal flu vaccine for the 12 states with outbreaks. Five thousand of those doses are meant for California’s dairy workers, but they won’t be there until the end of the month​


Getting regular flu vaccines into dairy workers’ arms is meant to help detect avian flu better. With fewer people exhibiting regular flu symptoms, health workers should be better able to find avian flu cases. The effort is also intended to cut down on the chance that avian flu goes through a process known as reassortment that could result in a virus that can transmit human to human.

“That alone, without contemplating high pathogenicity, equates to huge numbers of increased hospitalizations and deaths nationally and globally,” said Mina of eMed.
​-snip-

“The Department does not believe mandatory bulk milk testing is necessary at this time,” wrote USDA spokesperson Will Clement in a statement. “Since the beginning of this outbreak, USDA has been working closely with states, and if requested, working with states to help them implement testing programs.”

The Food and Drug Administration plans to beef up milk testing later this month, deploying a separate study across participating states to discern how far the virus has spread.
​-snip-
The state is currently testing more than 350 dairies with a combined total of more than 1 million cattle.​
-snip-
“The bottom line is we … think that the symptoms are mild, and as a result, we don’t really have the documentation that we need,” she said, noting that workers may not seek care for mild illness. “We’re not testing everybody, and we’re not testing everybody when they have these symptoms, and so I don’t think we really understand the extent of it at all.”​
-snip-
“Fortunately, the cases have been mild, but it’s a real gamble to assume that the rest of them will be,” Nuzzo said.​

Complete article: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/17/avian-flu-california-pandemic-threat-00184027

 

[blacknail]

Looks like an influenza A spike in Oswego, New York on the order of magnitude that suggests herds are infected there. It isn't subtyped, but it seems that spikes of this magnitude in a city that has a milk processing plant are a very good indicator. There are no officially confirmed herds in New York.

https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tra...AtMTeKAQZiYmE2Yze4AWA=&selectedChartId=bba6c7

 

[Pathfinder]

CDC’s Daskalakis talks bird flu

By LAUREN GARDNER and DAVID LIM 10/18/2024 12:00 PM EDT
...
The strategy of using symptoms to guide testing, I think, is still the right strategy. You’re seeing really good public health doing the work on the ground, identifying people with respiratory or eye symptoms, and then moving them quickly to testing.
...
We obviously would love to continue doing more serologic work. So I think Missouri is one example, but we have other serological studies that are happening to really help further inform strategy.

The CDC disclosed you anticipate the results are coming mid-month to the end of this month. Is that timeline still accurate?

That’s exactly what we’re anticipating; I think we’re on target. I would expect that, as billed, mid-late month or late month we should have the science to be able to communicate results.
...
In California, 105 herds have tested positive for avian flu, and the state public health department anticipates additional human infections will be detected moving forward. Does the CDC agree with that assessment?

We do agree.
...
The agency continuously weighs multiple factors, he noted, such as whether there is even limited evidence of human-to-human spread or an increase in the infection’s severity.

“At this time, based on what we’re seeing, even with the numbers increasing in California, the solutions to that tend to really be increasing protection for farmworkers, making sure that there’s access to testing, and also, when necessary, deploying Tamiflu,” Daskalakis said.
...
https://www.politico.com/newsletter...10/18/cdcs-daskalakis-talks-bird-flu-00184288

 

[Pathfinder]

Very high levels of Influenza A over the past few days in Turlock CA from WastewaterSCAN. Some have been subtyped and all of those subtyped have been H5. It is entirely possible that this signal is due to non-human infections. Edit, looking into this further, half of the wastewater flow comes from dairy and meat processing at this plant.

https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker/?charts=CicQACABSABSBmFkODZhOVoLSW5mbHVlbnphIEF4qA WKAQZiNjBmYTI%3D&selectedChartId=b60fa2

WastewaterSCAN Dashboard
H5, Turlock, CA​

​https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker/?charts=CiMQASABSABSBmFkODZhOVoHSW5mQV9INXibAYoBBj A1YmVlNA%3D%3D&selectedChartId=05bee4

 

[sharon sanders]

Not good news today.....please see:

Washington state: Poultry workers in Franklin Co. have tested presumptively positive for H5N1 - October 20, 2024

US - H5N1 Human Case List - updated​
​

 

[Pathfinder]

Inside the Bungled Bird Flu Response, Where Profits Collide With Public Health
...
BY KATHERINE EBAN
OCTOBER 21, 2024
...
“We plan for every agricultural health emergency, but all of our red teaming missed this” scenario: an agricultural outbreak that potentially imperils public health and leaves cows sick but mostly still standing, says David Stiefel, a former national security policy analyst for the USDA.

With continued spread amongst cows, or to another “mixing-vessel” species like pigs, the virus “could mix and match, then you get a whole new genetic constellation,” says Jürgen Richt, regents and university distinguished professor at Kansas State University. Experts are hesitant to speculate about what could happen if the virus were to begin more widely infecting humans, for fear of spreading panic, but the toll could, in the worst case, dwarf that of COVID-19. If the virus “infects a person infected with a human flu strain, and something comes out that is reassorted and adapted to humans? I don’t even want to imagine,” Richt says. “Not good.”
...
At that existential moment back in March, when the virus was first detected in cows, veterinarians involved in the response had every expectation that a well-honed network of experts, led by USDA scientists, would immediately rev to life.

But it didn’t. “Nobody came,” says one veterinarian in a Western state. “When the diagnosis came in, the government stood still. They didn’t know what to do, so they did nothing.”
...

Full text:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/inside-the-bungled-bird-flu-response

 

[sharon sanders]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
·
51m


A note:

Most of the state health departments in the US do not need
official CDC confirmation. California, Michigan, Colorado, and
others, are very reliable. Most have world class research
institutions with world experts in residence.

--------------------------------------

I added at Commonground's suggestion - Washington state....


FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
·
1m


Also Washington state, among others. Very reliable.


​

 

[Pathfinder]

Hat tip to Commonground and Sharon Sanders

This article is related to posts #378, 380 and 382:

Dead cows on the side of the road shows aftermath of Bird Flu outbreak

By Kassandra Gutierrez
Sunday, October 20, 2024 1:05PM
...
Western United Dairies represents the Tulare County Farm where the cows were found.

"It's very unfortunate, in this case the farmers have very few options, you have to separate the sick cows from healthy cows, and when they pass, in order to facilitate a process called rendering," says Anja Raudabaugh, CEO of Western United Dairies.

She says their protocol is: "They have to be placed near a public road so that the rendering truck does not come onto the dairy and potentially infect the healthy calves."

Anja also mentions, "The virus has been known at this point to be transmitted on something called fomite transmission, so boots, shoes, tires, and foreign cars in or around there."

Anja says the flu has killed 10 to 15 percent of the state's 1.7 million cows.

That's an uptick from the normal 1% annual death rate, and the recent heat has worsened matters.

Another added concern is protecting employees.

"We are in the process of training workers how to identify signs and symptoms," says Anja.
...
https://abc7news.com/post/dead-cows-side-road-shows-aftermath-bird-flu-outbreak/15447125/



​

 

[Commonground]

15% of 1.7 million is 255,000 cows....

Above:

Anja says the flu has killed 10 to 15 percent of the state's 1.7 million cows.

That's an uptick from the normal 1% annual death rate, and the recent heat has worsened matters.​

 

[sharon sanders]

Hat tip to Commonground and Sharon Sanders

This article is related to posts #378, 380 and 382:

Dead cows on the side of the road shows aftermath of Bird Flu outbreak

By Kassandra Gutierrez
Sunday, October 20, 2024 1:05PM
...
Western United Dairies represents the Tulare County Farm where the cows were found.

"It's very unfortunate, in this case the farmers have very few options, you have to separate the sick cows from healthy cows, and when they pass, in order to facilitate a process called rendering," says Anja Raudabaugh, CEO of Western United Dairies.

She says their protocol is: "They have to be placed near a public road so that the rendering truck does not come onto the dairy and potentially infect the healthy calves."

Anja also mentions, "The virus has been known at this point to be transmitted on something called fomite transmission, so boots, shoes, tires, and foreign cars in or around there."

Anja says the flu has killed 10 to 15 percent of the state's 1.7 million cows.

That's an uptick from the normal 1% annual death rate, and the recent heat has worsened matters.

Another added concern is protecting employees.

"We are in the process of training workers how to identify signs and symptoms," says Anja.
...
https://abc7news.com/post/dead-cows-side-road-shows-aftermath-bird-flu-outbreak/15447125/



​

There is some push back on this media report suggesting there is a misrepresentation or misquote in the article. I have no idea but the media is an ABC news station in the San Francisco area who has no reason to distort the words said by the dairy CEO.

The suggested correction is that the 10 to 15 percent figure quoted in the article refers only to the H5N1 affected dairy cattle, not all dairy cattle in the state.

This is an example of we don't know what we don't know.

FluTrackers has no agenda except public health. We publish the positions of all sides. And we comment.

Always use at least two sources for your information and use your common sense.

 

[sharon sanders]

Our position since early April - posted on this thread:

 

[sharon sanders]

Hat tip to Commonground and Sharon Sanders

This article is related to posts #378, 380 and 382:

Dead cows on the side of the road shows aftermath of Bird Flu outbreak

By Kassandra Gutierrez
Sunday, October 20, 2024 1:05PM
...
Western United Dairies represents the Tulare County Farm where the cows were found.

"It's very unfortunate, in this case the farmers have very few options, you have to separate the sick cows from healthy cows, and when they pass, in order to facilitate a process called rendering," says Anja Raudabaugh, CEO of Western United Dairies.

She says their protocol is: "They have to be placed near a public road so that the rendering truck does not come onto the dairy and potentially infect the healthy calves."

Anja also mentions, "The virus has been known at this point to be transmitted on something called fomite transmission, so boots, shoes, tires, and foreign cars in or around there."

Anja says the flu has killed 10 to 15 percent of the state's 1.7 million cows.

That's an uptick from the normal 1% annual death rate, and the recent heat has worsened matters.

Another added concern is protecting employees.

"We are in the process of training workers how to identify signs and symptoms," says Anja.
...
https://abc7news.com/post/dead-cows-side-road-shows-aftermath-bird-flu-outbreak/15447125/



​

Here is a screen shot of the contested quote:

https://abc7news.com/post/dead-cows-side-road-shows-aftermath-bird-flu-outbreak/15447125/


---------------------------------------------------

Someone wants us to "retract" the the dairy CEO's comment on the amount of cow deaths to protect our "credibility".

You what this reminds me of? The same threats that we received about the China lab leak thread for the COVID-19 pandemic. link

Well - guess what?

1) We can not retract a story that we did not originate. If there is a retraction published by the originating source we will cover that.

2) We do not back down. We are not funded by any government or corporation so you know what you can do with your credibility threat.