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Discussion thread VII - COVID-19: Endemic Stage

"Our data showed that COVID-19 hospitalised patients were more likely to have baseline comorbidities than general population controls, reflecting known associations between comorbidities and risks of severe COVID-19 outcomes [6]. Differences in outcomes between hospitalised patients and general population controls might therefore reflect baseline differences not fully captured in our adjustment models and might also reflect a generic adverse effect of hospitalisation [23]. This is supported by the more similar risks we observed when COVID-19 survivors were compared with people who had experienced influenza hospitalisation, with risks for some outcomes actually lower in the COVID-19 group, possibly linked to a general reduction in health seeking for non-COVID conditions in the early months of the pandemic [24]. However, all-cause mortality was substantially higher after COVID-19 compared with influenza."

The time frame of the study does not include Omicron, these cases were the more severe variants that seem to be in the process of being replaced by Omicron.

The all cause mortality being higher for Covid than the flu in spite of outcomes generally being better than the flu could again be the Covid medication protocols or rampant ventilator use.
 
Emily - I called it an anti-vax site because they were spreading false information about the vaccines, two of which I highlighted from the first 5 minutes. There is a big difference between a mass vaccination campaign, which I am very much in favour of, and forced vaccination. I have been shocked by how many people have elected not to get vaccinated when the risks are so low compared to infection.
 
Emily - If you give 8 billion people any vaccine some are not going to tolerate it well and may get very ill or die and of those some may have fared better with the virus. Statistically the choice is a no-brainer your odds of a bad outcome from the vaccine are vanishingly small compared to catching COVID. The hospitals are not full of severe vaccine reactions.
 
https://twitter.com/AB_CovidFacts/status/1486112498977685506

AB_CovidFacts @AB_CovidFacts

***Absolutely shocking and baffling*** Here is the updated AHS chart for cases per 100,000 since their "technical difficulties" Look at the before, and now revised...








5:03 PM · Jan 25, 2022·Twitter Web App


https://twitter.com/AB_CovidFacts/status/1486117661176057859



AB_CovidFacts @AB_CovidFacts

***Shocking and baffling #2*** After weeks of trending data daily, indicating unvaccinated are less and less a % of cases, active cases, and hospitalizations, AHS revised data after "technical difficulties" and this is no longer the case.








5:23 PM · Jan 25, 2022·Twitter Web App
 
JJackson, I totally respect your position on mass vaccination, even if I don't agree regarding the current situation. Regarding your issues with the first 5 min of the video, Geert later stated the dramatic waning period to 2-3 weeks, so that would be up to 21 days and includes your time frame. Whether 50% decline is dramatic or not is a matter of perception. I think it is significant when dealing with variants. When the main variant was Delta, some countries were considering boosting just 4 months out.
I'm hoping Omicron is a game-changer, whatever the source of that.
 
Emily - the drop of 50% after 21 days is only the antibody count and would not start for about a month, but antibody levels are an unreliable correlate of protection against severe disease. The T cell protection does not wain in the same way and has stood up very well with Omicron and is stable over months.
 
JJackson, thanks for the link.
I didn't read that paper but found from it one from 2021,
which even claims for 150M years as tmrca of all Corona.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8365511/
It is cited by Holmes in a 2022 paper.
Holmes is the one with this recent claim of "hundreds of millions of years" with flu
in multiple non-avian species.
So I looked at that paper and found it totally far fetched.
With these assumptions of geographic isolation of a NZ-island for 35 million years
and no mammals except 2 bat-species on it for that time.
And that birds may not exchange alpha,beta.with bats for such a long time.
I have not (yet) checked that argument of host-virus co-evolution,
which is also new to me.

--------------------------------------------------------
and btw. I feel that it's a general problem with science recently
Making gigantic claims with little evidence.
Running for headlines.
It matters most , "wie man es aufzieht" (as some postdoc
said in email) , the truth is not so important.
 
Fall in coronavirus infections in England may have stalled at high level - REACT

by Justine Alford
26 January 2022
...
Of those who reported whether they had a history of COVID-19, almost two-thirds (64.6%) of infections were in people who reported confirmed prior COVID-19. However these results are based on self-reported data and therefore it’s uncertain what proportion of these are reinfections or recent infections picked up due to the sensitivity of PCR testing.

Professor Paul Elliott, director of the REACT programme from Imperial’s School of Public Health, said: “There is good news in our data in that infections had been rapidly dropping during January, but they are still extremely high and may have recently stalled at a very high prevalence.

“Of particular concern is that there is rapidly increasing prevalence among children now they are back at school and, compared with December, prevalence in older people aged 65+ has increased seven- to 12-fold, which may lead to increased hospitalisations.

“It’s therefore vital that we continue to monitor the situation closely to understand the impact of the Omicron variant, which now makes up almost all infections in the country.”
...
Access the preprint report here, Post-peak dynamics of a national Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during January 2022
...
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/233381/fall-coronavirus-infections-england-have-stalled/
 
Canadian Truckers Protest Vaccine Mandate - Arriving in Ottawa on Saturday

Trucker convoy moves through Greater Toronto Area on it's way to Canada's capital | LIVE

 
I do not think the Canadian truckers protest represents a "fringe" group. Thousands of Canadians have cheered on the truckers all along the way from B.C.

Governments need to pay attention - the general population has had enough of mandates. We said this a long time ago on this site. Most populations complied with strict mandates for the first six months of the pandemic - but two years later - forget it.

Mandates are unenforceable on a large scale.

Saying again - all pandemic planning scenarios included the possibility of losing as many people to "collateral" damage as the pandemic disease itself. All government leaders know this.

One collateral damage is violence due to societal breakdown. Canadians are known for polite behavior. If they are "acting out" in this way - can you imagine how frustrated Americans are? Violent crime in the US is very high right now. link

So how about governments do their main job? Protect their citizens. What is needed now is calm, pragmatic leadership. No "messaging" - for once.

Everyone knows about the dangers of COVID-19. Let people make their own decisions about their health, business, social interactions. Give people the tools to stay safe. Free N95 masks is a start.

We need at least (in no order):

Unlimited free supply of N95 masks.

A list of natural and over-the-counter medicines to take for "mild" COVID-19 cases.

Unlimited free home test kits.

Continue with free vaccines.

Cost reduced air filters.

Cost reduced hand sanitizers.

Hybrid school arrangements until further notice.

Organized outdoor community activities for our youth on a regular schedule.

100% deductible child care expenses.

Bonuses and/or tax exemptions for people who work in high risk professions like bus driver, cashier, emergency worker, health care worker, teachers who are present on campus, etc.

A guarantee that ALL people, regardless of vaccination status, will be treated with the same standard of care......



Make no mistake - it is not a small fringe...it is the majority of people who are unhappy.
 
This interview was done during the Delta days. It's a sensible personal risk evaluation. He does think the vaccine was effective in people who needed it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTfO0GYMbCU
I-Team: Fired ER doctor explains reason for not getting COVID-19 vaccine
3,847,141 views
Oct 8, 2021
 
as for 1889/90, for example Parsons reported that cats,dogs and caged birds were affected
This should not happen with a human coronavirus.
 
The First Nations appear to be participating in the Ottawa mandate protest. The town of Maniwaki in Quebec is primarily a First Nations (indigenous) area. "it is the largest Algonquin Nation in Canada in both area and population." link

 
Last edited:
sharon sanders said:
The First Nations appear to be participating in the Ottawa mandate protest. The town of Maniwaki in Quebec is primarily a First Nations (indigenous) area. "it is the largest Algonquin Nation in Canada in both area and population." link
Click to expand...

Some indigenious people giving a speech at the trucker's rally in Ottawa. Screen shot of public livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc2JBQqZfB4



Click image for larger version Name: canadiatruckerslivestream.png Views: 1 Size: 899.0 KB ID: 937499
 
I hope this gets resolved very soon. I saw someone from Canada on a prayer forum today asking for prayers for the truckers, but also another person from Canada asking for prayers because the food shelves are near empty.
 
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