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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

It is hard to know at this point how the growth is because the focus on this variant is new. It might have been circulating undetected for a while.
 
So - ****

I am really over it!

I had a great Thanksgiving - designed with COVID-19 in mind. We ate outside, at a distance, at separate small tables. We did not have a buffet. The hostess put a little of everything on everyone's plate and served them. It was so much fun that we have planned the same type of event for Christmas.

Now we have this Omicron development. I am waiting to see what science tells us. Since I am high risk I live a COVID-19 oriented life style anyway.

I am a big fan of N95 masks and I have repeated this over and over. I always carry one even though I am fully vaccinated + booster.

I do not support mass lockdowns or vaccine mandates. Societies are at the breaking point.

I do support protecting our vulnerable populations, like nursing homes, etc.

Please read this site, check the international and national news - and your local news.

Always use at least two sources for your information, and use your common sense.

Only you can take care of you.
 
Re. Omicron
There is not enough data to say anything very definitive about this variant yet - not that that will stop the media from writing exciting headlines and worst case scenarios.
Speculation is all we have so lets look at what we know and what it is reasonable to infer.

It was first found less than a month ago - Given that very few positive test are fully sequenced it is very likely to have been circulating below the radar for some time and is likely to have spread to several other areas/countries by now so travel restrictions will probably not delay international spread by much.

It has a bucket load of AA changes many in the Spike - This is unusual, while the virus will be continuously making small changes in any infection most will be weeded out in that host with only one or two making it to the next host. Viruses with this many changes as a single jump are almost always dead ends except where the host is immunocompromised allowing 'damaged' viruses to keep on adding mutations until a new viable progeny is achieved. The high HIV prevalence is a suspect here but we will never be able to pinpoint the index case.
These Spike changes are almost definitely going to reduce vaccine efficacy to some degree which will increase relative viral fitness in areas with high vaccine coverage. If the virus is relying on this to out perform the Delta variant it will spread well in high vaccine/prior infection areas but not in countries that are naive.
As we have never seen all these changes in one variant before there is no way of guessing what impact they will have on transmission, virulence or other properties of the phenotype we are just going to have to wait and watch.
As with the Alpha variant it is easier to pick up by rt PCR as the Spike probe (normally 1 of 3 probes) gives a reduced signal which in turn tends to lead to more full sequencing of that hosts viral genome which will skew the data compared to random sequencing so be wary of the relative numbers of sequences deposited at GISAID.

As far as the impact on health services is concerned the key here is if, in people whose immune system is primed, there is adequate protection to limit the replication in the host sufficiently for somatic hyper-mutation to adjust the B cells' antibodies to the new virus (I wrote an explanation of B cell maturation here https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...701#post907701). In countries with high vaccination/prior infection rates (like mine, the UK) people have dropped their guard and are tolerating very high infection rates as it is only producing low hospitalisations. If this strain has retained its virulence and drifted away from vaccine strains enough to allow significantly more hospitalisation and we do not change our behaviour, physical distancing and masking, then our health systems hospitals are going to get swamped and will cause more lockdowns.

A first look personal opinion only based on very little information - caveat emptor.
 
yes, but once it gets into the community it spread very quickly and should be detected soon.
Maybe this is only since one last decisive mutation, though, and it may have spread
without that mutation earlier with lower speed.
 
I don't think distancing, masks can stop it. This is like panflu. Even China, Israel will get it
this winter (IMO).
-------------------------------------
these mysterious multi-mutation strains will probably appear again.
One per year ?! Makes it unpredictable like flu.
 
gs I do not think masks will stop any strain I think they will reduce the total amount of virus being transmitted from host to host making it easier for the immune system to get on top of any infection earlier hence reducing symptom severity. I do not think this will vary by variant.

I forgot to include this in my earlier comment but I also expect this variant to undergo significant further mutation in the short term. With so many changes all at once I expect a fair amount of fine tuning will be needed as some of the changes are found not to be optimal in this new configuration and will need to be adjusted and some existing unchanged AAs need adapting to the new protein configuration.
 
Masks are only part of disease avoidance practice. They help, but like vaccines, they are not guaranteed. As I have said many times, I am living a COVID life style. I do not eat inside any restaurants. I do not attend big events. I keep a distance from others - even outside. I carry an N95 mask, and I am fully vaccinated. Even these actions do not guarantee anything. It just gives me a chance. I am really enjoying my adult children and other relationships. I want more time and I am willing to make changes to my life style to get it.
 
you mean, it was not created by finetuning ? Big achievement to create such a successful
strain without some continuous adaption and selection (=finetuning)
 
what was that organisation, created last year, dedicated to find and stop new outbreaks like omicron ?
Head was Ian Lipkin, I remember how I applauded at twitter. But now I can't find it.
Only nichtssagende stetments by Lipkin now, no reference to that task.

We were asking for it here since 2006's H5N1

China stopped Wuhan-Hu-1 in Feb.2020
But they let it escape to other countries
and most of the rest of the world didn't stop it

Alpha, Delta were detected too late.

Omicron was detected early but spreads better and faster, but i think we should try to stop it to contain it now.,
support ZA's measures financially. Although it's probably invain and too late.


------------------edit------------------------
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2021...d0baae175.html

The key to global public health is global cooperation, transparency and investment."
the lack of international, inter-institutional and interpersonal trust, respect and collaboration,
[not the project that I had in mind. It was rather about early stopping emerging pandemics]
-------------edit--------------------------------
pandemic prevention institute , Rockefeller Foundation
https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/pandemicpreventioninstitute/
https://twitter.com/PPI_Insights

from what I read so far I'm disappointed by their tweets
 
Last edited:
 
gs re #506.4 The virus will not make 'the big jump' seen in Omicron normally in humans as one or more of the intermediate steps will get weeded out by the immune system, however in severely immunocompromised hosts it may survive and get additional changes. If one of these multi-mutation variants happens to be fit it may survive and spread from any host that is subsequently infected by the immunocompromised host. The same could also happen in a non-human host with a very different immune profile however in either case I would expect the new hosts to rapidly apply immune pressure causing considerable genetic change to the epitopes they interact with. It will be interesting to see where these changes are applied. A very similar set of mutations were observed in an in vitro epithelial mono-layer, where there is intra-cellular immunity but no adaptive immunity, but they could not compete against wild type in an in-vivo model.
 
gs commented that the mutations may have occurred in an animal host and Robert Garry has posted an interesting thread on Virological.org with the graphic at the link https://virological.org/uploads/shor...rUKR0VAEFp.pdf which looks at the mutations documented in humans and other mammals from which it seems most likely that, if it did come from a non-human host, it was probably rodent. The Omicron branch in the phylogenic tree at Nextstrain.org dates all the way back to May 2020 so is not rooted in Delta, or any other VOC, making it unclear where its origins lie.
 
As we continue to move forward in this pandemic and consider the messaging of governments, it is important to consider what they do, and not what they say.

Is a variant supposedly mild? What are world governments doing?

Is a variant thought to be severe? What are they doing?

Apply this also to such things as the global supply chain, potential war, social unrest....etc. Weigh what they are doing, and ask yourself why they are doing it.

This has absolutely nothing to do with politics or the type of governmental system in question. Rather it is matter of looking at the things being implemented with a pragmatic eye as to "why".

There are a few old sayings that can guide the process of evaluation. ----"Where there is smoke there is fire."----"When you hear hoofbeats, look for horses not zebras."----"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." (Hanlons razor) The list can go on.

The common man (such as many of us here) will never be privy to the decision making of the world government's decision makers. We have to work from incomplete data. But if we watch carefully, and not allow ourselves to be caught up in conspiracy theories or paranoia, then we might just be able to discern what is going on enough to respond appropriately.
 
Okieman said:
As we continue to move forward in this pandemic and consider the messaging of governments, it is important to consider what they do, and not what they say.

Is a variant supposedly mild? What are world governments doing?

Is a variant thought to be severe? What are they doing?

Apply this also to such things as the global supply chain, potential war, social unrest....etc. Weigh what they are doing, and ask yourself why they are doing it.

This has absolutely nothing to do with politics or the type of governmental system in question. Rather it is matter of looking at the things being implemented with a pragmatic eye as to "why".

There are a few old sayings that can guide the process of evaluation. ----"Where there is smoke there is fire."----"When you hear hoofbeats, look for horses not zebras."----"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." (Hanlons razor) The list can go on.

The common man (such as many of us here) will never be privy to the decision making of the world government's decision makers. We have to work from incomplete data. But if we watch carefully, and not allow ourselves to be caught up in conspiracy theories or paranoia, then we might just be able to discern what is going on enough to respond appropriately.
Click to expand...

Agree.
 
France -

Translation Google

Detox. No, there is no "epidemic of the unvaccinated"

Posted the 12/07/2021 11:00

Article written by
Detox - Arte

Many of them use or have used this shocking slogan, supposed to convince the hesitant to get vaccinated.

An " epidemic of the unvaccinated "! Many of them use or have used this shocking slogan, supposed to convince the hesitant to get vaccinated. Among them: the American President Joe Biden, the head of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, through the office of the Minister of Health in France. But eleven months after the first shots, can we really continue to talk about a pandemic of unvaccinated people?

The vaccine, of course, always helps to slow down the epidemic: the more vaccinated there are, the harder the virus is to circulate. Likewise, the more people who are vaccinated, the less serious forms of Covid-19 are expected to be identified. And if vaccines do not offer complete protection against contamination, and even tend to be less effective over time, their effect is not zero - far from it. Even today, there are four times fewer positive cases in France, among the vaccinated than among the unvaccinated.

But when three quarters of the inhabitants, as in France, are vaccinated, the positive cases mathematically end up being found in the majority in this population. At the beginning of November, there were even twice as many vaccinated as unvaccinated among the new positive cases.

" It is logical that the vaccinated are now the most numerous to relay the virus ", confirms to Detox Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the Scientific Council, who adds that under these conditions: "it is indeed false to speak of an epidemic of no-vaccinated ”.

This slogan, in addition to being wrong, can above all turn out to be counterproductive. On November 24, WHO Director Tedros Ghebreyesus expressed concern over the " false sense of security that vaccines have ended the pandemic, and that vaccinated people do not need to take additional precautions ”.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/m...a-pas-d-epidemie-de-non-vaccines_4872267.html
 
Hello everyone, thank you for your service here!

Found this youtube page that uses neat technology to measure covid. Has a few different live feeds with visuals.

Would love to see your comments on this one in particular, that is giving real time view of severity over last 5 days. Want to see if it is a useful measurement tool.

https://youtu.be/DrbSgHSt4Ks
 
JJackson said:
gs commented that the mutations may have occurred in an animal host and Robert Garry has posted an interesting thread on Virological.org with the graphic at the link https://virological.org/uploads/shor...rUKR0VAEFp.pdf which looks at the mutations documented in humans and other mammals from which it seems most likely that, if it did come from a non-human host, it was probably rodent. The Omicron branch in the phylogenic tree at Nextstrain.org dates all the way back to May 2020 so is not rooted in Delta, or any other VOC, making it unclear where its origins lie.
Click to expand...

Lab rat or mouse?

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...ection-accident-in-early-2020-virologist-says
 
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