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Discussion thread V - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

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Translation Google

Coronavirus: "There is nowhere a second wave", according to Didier Raoult

Professor Didier Raoult, infectiologist and professor of microbiology, believes that "the epidemic is ending", without a second wave.

Paul Turban
Journalist

PUBLISHED ON 5/13/2020 AT 2:00 P.M. UPDATED ON 14/05/2020 AT 10:51

"The epidemic is ending." The verdict is final, and argued. This Tuesday, May 12, in a video intervention on YouTube, Professor Didier Raoult, infectiologist and professor of microbiology, delivered his last analysis of the epidemic of new coronavirus. "Nowhere is there a second wave, or a camel's back , it's the common curve," said Didier Raoult .

"There will be a few sporadic cases that will appear here or there , possibly if there is someone super contagious, there will be a few cases around him, according to the infectious disease specialist . But that no longer reflects an epidemic dynamic . epidemic is ending. "

"Everywhere, things are stopping, explains the infectious disease specialist, whether it is detected cases, hospitalized cases, hospitalized cases in intensive care ..., estimated Professor Raoult. The dead, it will be longer because unfortunately there will be a few dead who are currently in intensive care who will appear. But we can see that this episode is being resolved . "

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/bien-etre/c...deuxieme-vague-selon-didier-raoult-7800510497
 
Quand dans une r?gion, on subventionne des paysans pour se reconvertir dans une certaine forme d'?levage, avec de l'argent public, puis que l'on d?cide de fermer ce type d'?levage avec compensation en ?voquant un danger nomm?, il faut que certains faits soient produits, il me semble ?

N'ayant vu aucun signalement au niveau de l'O.I.E et ou F.A.O, je suis, un peu, ?tonn? ...


When in a region, we subsidize peasants to reconvert in a certain form of breeding, with public money, then that we decide to close this type of breeding with compensation by evoking a named danger, it is necessary that certain facts are produced, it seems to me?

Having seen no reports at the level of the O.I.E, I am, a little surprised ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKXAvz8n7Io
 
China has 1.4 billion people to feed. This is the prevailing situation. They have tried to encourage people to eat grocery market packaged poultry with limited success. Also, there has been an official ban on eating cats and dogs for about 10 years.
 
Translation Google

Coronavirus: "There is nowhere a second wave", according to Didier Raoult

Professor Didier Raoult, infectiologist and professor of microbiology, believes that "the epidemic is ending", without a second wave.

Paul Turban
Journalist

PUBLISHED ON 5/13/2020 AT 2:00 P.M. UPDATED ON 14/05/2020 AT 10:51

"The epidemic is ending." The verdict is final, and argued. This Tuesday, May 12, in a video intervention on YouTube, Professor Didier Raoult, infectiologist and professor of microbiology, delivered his last analysis of the epidemic of new coronavirus. "Nowhere is there a second wave, or a camel's back , it's the common curve," said Didier Raoult .

"There will be a few sporadic cases that will appear here or there , possibly if there is someone super contagious, there will be a few cases around him, according to the infectious disease specialist . But that no longer reflects an epidemic dynamic . epidemic is ending. "

"Everywhere, things are stopping, explains the infectious disease specialist, whether it is detected cases, hospitalized cases, hospitalized cases in intensive care ..., estimated Professor Raoult. The dead, it will be longer because unfortunately there will be a few dead who are currently in intensive care who will appear. But we can see that this episode is being resolved . "

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/bien-etre/co...ult-7800510497

I do not know this fellow but I think he is a proponent of the azithromycin/chloroquine combination? We have some papers on this in the treatments subforum of the scientific library. link

I think he is saying in the french translation that the epidemic curve is over and now we will not see a second wave but only sporadic cases that pop-up?

We can look at China and other countries in Asia for some type of clue on this. It appears in China, at least what they are disclosing, that there is some pop-up activity. link

Singapore developed a large problem in a housing complex. Japan has gone to a broader emergency declaration. South Korea seems to be doing fairly well. It seems like a mixed bag of situations right now.

For the northern hemisphere the challenge will be when all schools are back in session and the weather cools. I have no idea what is going to happen but it appears humans are a host for COVID-19 and we will live with this illness until we have 70%ish herd immunity or a safe and effective vaccine.

I do not get involved in the politics of COVID-19, which sadly, is now a political football, at least in the U.S.

For coronavirus there are two well known examples - although entirely different diseases: 2003 SARS and MERS. 2003 SARS burned out partially because it was less infectious than COVID-19. It was also more deadly. MERS has been doing a "slow burn" since 2012. Camels are one host animal and humans in the Middle East have constant contact with them, especially in Saudi Arabia. MERS cases happen year round but occur more frequently in the fall and winter.

So based on MERS I would guess that COVID-19 is here to stay, especially given its highly infectious nature, circulating among humans with a general characteristic to occur more frequently in the fall and winter. Will COVID-19 infections in the future occur in large curved outbreaks or lower levels of sustained transmission? I don't think anyone knows.

Meanwhile, I am taking responsibility for myself. I am in several risk categories so I am avoiding all crowds. I wear a mask when I go out (rarely) - and I still stay 6 feet away from other people. I wipe down deliveries. I eat a lot of "hurricane" food, do house projects, and play with my dogs. My little dog has a new trick. She can get on my bed by climbing her way up off lower furniture and then jumps across the divide to land on the bed. Saves me a lot of getting up and down. :)
 
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Weta Digital ( Peter Jackson ) made the visual effects for Lord of the Rings

Executive producer David Conley said the company was trying to buy some equipment from Wuhan.

"We were just hearing whispers from concerned crew about family members in China, there was this mysterious illness, that's all we knew.

"And then when we started trying to purchase some substantial hardware, there started to be these delays."

Weta Digital started getting more reports from colleagues around the world and began its own pandemic planning, initially as more of a theoretical exercise.

more....

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/...nomic-recovery
 
?????

I do not know the bias (if any) of this media.

A list with 640k cases - one on each line?



Leaked Chinese Virus Database Covers 230 Cities, 640,000 Updates

New information may offer insight into the honesty of China’s coronavirus numbers.

BY ISAAC STONE FISH, MARIA KROL SINCLAIR | MAY 12, 2020, 8:32 PM

snip

While not fully comprehensive, the data is incredibly rich: There are more than 640,000 updates of information, covering at least 230 cities—in other words, 640,000 rows purporting to show the number of cases in a specific location at the time the data was gathered. Each update includes the latitude, longitude, and “confirmed” number of cases at the location, for dates ranging from early February to late April.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/12...-number-cases/
 
There seem to be 2 paradigms regarding government policy in relation to Covid-19:

1. Try to stop the outbreak. Lockdown if necessary to buy time to eradicate the virus. Test, isolate & treat, trace contacts.

2. Let it go, we can't stop it. If necessary implement measures - temporary (mild) lockdown - to slow down the outbreak if health facilities get overwhelmed, protect - if possible - the vulnerable people (f.i. elderly).


What can we say about this? Based on our feelings, based on the incomplete science we have?

Many questions. For instance: some countries are doing "good" , others are doing "bad". For now.
If - if - a 2nd wave starts, what will happen? Bad 2nd wave in "good" countries? Benign 2nd wave in "bad" countries? We don't know.

My feeling right now: we don't know much about the current virus outbreak. So better be safe than sorry. We know how to deal with infectious diseases, like Ebola: find patients, isolate and treat, do contact tracing. Lockdowns should be early, fast and strong and temporary. To buy time for testing and tracing. Also to prevent to much economic damage, especially for the poor.

If lockdowns are too late and too little, they can do much harm?

Not easy to decide what to do.
 
I do not agree with your description. For me, China has been a pressure cooker for a long time with regard to these pathogens. This suggests that the vector and or carrier animals are in x places and x species (see the bamboo rat file) There is therefore coexistence in humans of x immunities, before this event ...

There is certainly the event evoked, but this event had prodomes on the one hand, on the other hand the measures taken, which do not concern only humans, suggest that Chinese knowledges are more important at this stage than the shared, even if I recognize that they have and do a real feat in terms of communication.
I am more and more certain that we must help the Chinese and that by helping the Chinese we will all help each other.

I like the name Chernobyl Chinese, because it is also an American or European Chernobyl. So if the prerequisite is that we are all with our Chernobyl, we are probably going much better ...

Je ne suis pas d'accord avec votre description. Pour moi, la Chine est, au regard de ces pathog?nes, une cocote minute, depuis un bon moment. Ceci sugg?re que les animaux vecteurs et ou porteurs sont en x endroits et de x esp?ces ( voir le dossier rat des bambous ). Il y a donc coexistence chez les humains de x immunit?s , avant cet ?v?nement...

Il y a certes l'?v?nement ?voqu?, mais cet ?v?nement a eu des prodomes d'une part, d'autre part les mesures prises, qui ne concernent pas que les humains, laissent entrevoir que le su chinois est plus important ? ce stade que le partag?, m?me si je reconnais qu'ils ont et font un v?ritable exploit en terme de communication.
Je suis de plus en plus certain qu'il faut aider les chinois et qu'en aidant les chinois on s'aidera tous.

J'aime la d?nomination Tchernobyl chinois, car cela est aussi un Tchernobyl am?ricain ou europ?en . Donc si le pr?alable admis est que nous sommes tous avec notre Tchernobyl, on va surement beaucoup mieux avanc? ...
 
https://www.aier.org/article/lockdo...anization-interview-with-prof-johan-giesecke/
Q: So, the whole sort of rationale for introducing these lockdowns across Europe, that has created such unbelievable side-effects and pretty much stopped the whole world in its tracks, you believe is a misguided policy. And do you think it’s doing more harm than good?

A: Yes, I think so, on the whole. Although I mean if you listen – what I’m saying is that people who will die a few months later are dying now, and that’s taking months from their lives, so that’s maybe not nice. But comparing that to the effects of the lockdown which may be – I mean, what am I most afraid of? It’s the dictatorial trends in Eastern Europe. That Orban is now dictator for Hungary, forever. There’s no finishing date. I think the same is popping up in other countries. It may pop up in more established democracies as well. I think the ramifications can be huge from this, we don’t even start seeing them.
 
Translation Google

[Wuhan pneumonia] was ordered to destroy virus samples by bombing China recognized: To ensure safety

8 hours ago

Liu Dengfeng, supervisor of the Science and Education Department of the National Health and Welfare Commission of China, admitted at a press conference on Friday (15th) that China had destroyed Wuhan ’s pneumonia virus samples in January, saying that it was “in order to ensure safety” to “manage” the cause of unknown pneumonia Pathogens.

Regarding the destruction of virus samples, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pointed out that the Chinese Health Commission ordered the destruction of virus samples on January 3 and refused to share virus strains with other countries. In this regard, Liu Dengfeng said: "China immediately started pathogen identification work after the outbreak occurred. Based on preventing the leakage of biological samples and ensuring biological safety, based on the comprehensive evaluation of experts, we have determined that the pathogens that cause unexplained pneumonia are temporarily classified into two categories. Highly pathogenic pathogens are managed, and clear biological safety requirements are made for collection, transportation, experimental activities, destruction, etc. "

"Chinese laws and regulations have clear requirements for the storage, destruction, and experimental activities of samples of highly pathogenic pathogenic microorganisms. If the laboratory conditions do not meet the requirements for the storage of biological safety samples, they should be destroyed or transferred to professional Depository preservation. " Liu Dengfeng said, "These remarks by American officials are purely out of context and intentionally confuse the audience."

On the 1st of this month, the Australian "Daily Telegraph" published a report written by the "Five Eyes Alliance", an intelligence alliance composed of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand, pointing out that the China Health and Health Commission ordered the destruction of the new coronavirus.

As early as April 20, Taiwan's "New News" also obtained a copy of the red-headed document, referring to the Beijing National Health and Health Commission Office in early January ordered the relevant agencies to "destroy" the case samples, which became China's concealment of the epidemic. The strong evidence of the global outbreak of Wuhan pneumonia.

China's Caixin.com also reported the incident in February, when a person from a gene sequencing company revealed that on January 1, he received a call from an official of the Hubei Provincial Health and Welfare Committee to inform him of a case of new coronary pneumonia in Wuhan Samples are submitted for inspection and cannot be re-examined; existing virus samples must be destroyed, the sample information cannot be disclosed, and related papers and related data cannot be published. "If you detect it in the future, you must report it to us."

The report also pointed out that on January 3, the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission issued a "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Biological Sample Resources and Related Scientific Research Activities in the Prevention and Control of Major Emergent Infectious Diseases." This National Health Office Science and Education Letter (2020) No. 3 stipulates that for Wuhan pneumonia virus samples, all relevant institutions should provide biological samples to designated pathogen testing institutions to carry out etiological testing and do according to the requirements of health administrative departments at or above the provincial level. Good handover procedures; without approval, it is not allowed to provide biological samples and related information to other institutions and individuals. As for which organizations are "designated pathogen testing organizations", the document does not mention them. Some virologists revealed that even the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences was once required to stop pathogen detection and destroy existing samples.

Wuhan pneumonia has claimed 300,000 lives worldwide. Many countries have expressed the need to identify the source of the virus, and more organizations have asked China to compensate for the concealment of the epidemic.

Comprehensive Report


https://hk.appledaily.com/china/20200516/KQCJNIDK6YBHAW2VI7Z7OWXGAM/
 
Les super-pouvoirs et contre-pouvoirs de la communication en temps de crise
https://www.jim.fr/medecin/e-docs/le...nt_edito.phtml

et mon commentaire

One Health


Le 16 mai 2020

Un bonheur votre texte, il est captieux ? souhait. Nous vivons un moment historique, car l'acc?s aux informations est au del? de ce que peut concevoir la tr?s grande majorit? des individus, dont les politiques.

Si vous avez raison, sur le fait que cette crise ne tue pas autant que cela, la communication de crise associ?e ? la m?moire d'internet est l'arme de destruction av?r?e, pour tous ceux qui ne maitrisent pas la communication par internet...

Certains y perdent des plumes, d'autres des ailes et enfin il y a tous ceux qui explosent en vol... Le pire, c'est que certains n'ont pas conscience, ? ce stade, d'avoir explos?.

En France, pour ne pas ?voquer un exemple du corps m?dical, aller voir le cas de la communication du repr?sentant des chasseurs.

C'est la perception de cette situation hors norme qui justifie la pr?sence de votre texte en ce lieu ... Etant un lecteur assidu de ce genre de site : http://www.intelligence-complexite.org/
et comme vous aimez les mots:
si cette crise a ?t? d?nomm?e le "Tchernobyl" chinois, il me semble que c'est bien plus que cela car vous avez aussi un "Tchernobyl" africain, am?ricain, europ?en et russe, par ordre alphab?tique. En prendre conscience, donc le formaliser, me semble la premi?re ?tape, pour envisager de formaliser le reste... La langue de Moli?re, offre bien des possibles dans ce genre de situation, pour ceux qui appr?cient, d'entrevoir l'histoire des maux, pardon mots.

Ce n'est donc pas une crise fran?aise, m?me si cette crise va transformer la m?decine fran?aise: c'est juste une ?tape de croissance. Comme il n'y a pas de hasard, elle peut ?tre vue, comme l'outil de notre ?poque, pour, ? un certain moment, bien pr?cis, de la mondialisation, faire entrevoir, ce qui doit ?tre mis en oeuvre... Le temps de la mise en œuvre de ONE HEALTH est advenu.

C'est pour cela qu'il faut ?tre tr?s indulgent, car il n'y a que ceux qui se sont plong?s dans l'histoire et l'?tat de ce concept qui ont conscience de ce qui se passe, un exemple :

http://www.peah.it/2019/10/interview...-edition-2019/

Dr Bertrand Carlier



https://www.jim.fr/e-docs/les_super_...laire-reaction
 
COVID-19 was found in semen of recovered patients. Is it a sexually transmitted disease?

By CHRISTEN A. JOHNSON | Chicago Tribune | Published: May 16, 2020

(Tribune News Service) — The virus that causes COVID-19 can be present in the semen of patients who have the coronavirus, as well as those recovering from it, according to a recent study published in JAMA Network Open.

Fifty men were enrolled in the study's testing, however only 38 were able to provide a semen sample.

Twenty-three of the participants who were able to provide a semen sample recovered from their COVID-19 infection. Two of these recovered patients had COVID-19 in their semen, which is particularly noteworthy, the study said...

https://www.stripes.com/covid-19-wa...is-it-a-sexually-transmitted-disease-1.629997
 
The article does not state how they were tested but assuming they only PCR tested, and did not attempt to culture virus, all it shows is viral RNA was present not that there was infectious virus.
 
It is hoped a vaccine will be availbable. When we look back at Sars CoV 1, there could be some problems.

Conclusions

These SARS-CoV vaccines all induced antibody and protection against infection with SARS-CoV.

However, challenge of mice given any of the vaccines led to occurrence of Th2-type immunopathology suggesting hypersensitivity to SARS-CoV components was induced.

Caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated.
 
...Additional Information...

Clinical Characteristics and Results of Semen Tests Among Men With Coronavirus Disease 2019

Diangeng Li, PhD[SUP]1,2[/SUP]; Meiling Jin, MD[SUP]2,3[/SUP]; Pengtao Bao, PhD[SUP]4[/SUP]; et alWeiguo Zhao, MD[SUP]4[/SUP]; Shixi Zhang, MD[SUP]5[/SUP]
Author Affiliations Article Information
JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(5):e208292. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.8292

...We identified all male patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 aged 15 years and older between January 26, 2020, and February 16, 2020, in Shangqiu Municipal Hospital, which is the only designated hospital for the treatment of COVID-19 in Shangqiu, in the east of Henan province. Following guidance from the World Health Organization,[SUP]4[/SUP]laboratory confirmation for COVID-19 was defined as positive result for SARS-CoV-2 in real-time reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction assay of nasal and pharyngeal swabs.[SUP]1[/SUP] Enrolled patients were asked to provide a semen sample for SARS-CoV-2 testing.

Groups were compared using the t test, χ[SUP]2[/SUP] test, or Mann-Whitney or Kruskal-Wallis test. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS statistical software version 19 (IBM). P values were 2-tailed, and P < .05 was considered to indicate significant differences...

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2765654
 
Yup....a tribunal....we owe everyone who has died to find out what happened.....


"That's the responsible thing to do when 300,000 souls have lost their lives around the world," he (Morrison) told the ABC on Monday.



Coalition of 62 countries back Australia's push for coronavirus pandemic probe



Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison Source: AAP

India, Japan, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Indonesia, Russia, and all 27 EU member states will back Australia's push for a probe into the coronavirus pandemic.

UPDATED 37 MINS AGO

Australia has received international backing for an independent coronavirus inquiry as trade tensions with China come under heavy strain.

More than 60 countries including Russia, Indonesia, India, Japan, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and all 27 European Union member states have co-sponsored the motion.


https://www.sbs.com.au/news/coalitio...pandemic-probe
 
The Australian first reported on New Zealand's inclusion on the list. It was later confirmed by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on The AM Show on Monday morning.

"We are part of a sensible call just from us to learn what we can from Covid-19," Ardern said.

We're not interested in blame, we're not interested in any kind of witch-hunt, we're just interested in learning."

Asked directly about the exclusion of China from the call's text, Ardern said she was "not involved in the drafting."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...-independent-inquiry-into-outbreak-of-covid19
 
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