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Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

I don't have a link, but heard on the local radio that some Chinese scientists warned the US that the obese and smokers could be high risk.
 
I think they are the first health department to state that, Do you know what the state's response to that is?
 
Short term gain, long term pain. In similiar outbreaks health care workers become a major source of spread unless they take extraordinary precautions. If they wait to show symptoms they merely confirm the spread is occurring.
 
Anorexia was listed but I did not see obesity. I have not seen any data on smoking but it would be logical to assume anything that reduces lung function efficiency will have a knock on effect.
 
Hi Everyone!

Hey - just a reminder...no political posts.

The cases in the US are getting ready to explode because testing will be more readily available.

Coronavirus is now a political football.

I guarantee that no city, county, federal department will perform well. We need to assess each situation and offer help where we can in a logical and factual way.

It is not productive to make politically motivated posts. Believe me, there will be enough blame to go around for every single politician and office holder.

We can not become like the other medias. They are consumed by vicious politics. Even the questions that are asked by various reporters are loaded with political innuendo.

We are the only non-political media.

We need to stay focused on how to help the most people: pertinent, factual updates and scientific information.

News items like "shortage of ICU beds", "quarantined my neighborhood", "lack of facts about the latest cases"....are all ok.

I know it will be extremely frustrating. If you find yourself boiling over the top get off the computer and take a walk around the house.

Remember - to help the most people - we need this site to stay collegial.

People don't come here for the politics. They come here for the truth.
 
hat tip Jason Gale

I have permission to post this article in its entirety

via FT email -


Fauci Says Sense on Coronavirus Scope Is ‘Not Encouraging’ (1)
2020-03-08 17:46:41.543 GMT


By Elizabeth Dexheimer
(Bloomberg) -- “Social distancing” will become more
prevalent in the U.S. over the next three months as the nation
attempts to tamp down the spread of the new coronavirus, Anthony
Fauci said Sunday.
“We’re getting a better sense as the days go by” of the
scope of the outbreak in the U.S., Fauci, director of the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on
NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “Unfortunately, that better sense is not
encouraging, because we’re seeing community spread.”
Also on Sunday, Scott Gottlieb, the former head of the U.S.
Food and Drug Administration, said the U.S. needs “a
comprehensive plan” for cities, with support from the federal
government.
Gottlieb and Fauci spoke as the Trump administration
remains under fire in some quarters for its response to the
fast-spreading virus -- but a response that President Donald
Trump on Sunday called “perfectly coordinated and fine tuned.”
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the
White House for our attack on CoronaVirus. We moved VERY early
to close borders to certain areas, which was a Godsend. V.P. is
doing a great job. The Fake News Media is doing everything
possible to make us look bad. Sad!
Sent via Twitter for iPhone.
View original tweet.
The president is spending the weekend at his Florida
resort; on Friday he visited the headquarters of the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention, the hub of the federal effort to
combat the virus.
“If you’re a vulnerable person, take it seriously, because
particularly when you have community spread, you may not know at
any given time that there are people who are infected,” Fauci
said of the idea of social distancing, or actions that include
avoiding large gatherings. “It’s common-sense stuff.”
The “draconian” quarantine measures taken by China, while
they’ve worked to prevent a broader advance of the disease
beyond Wuhan province, are “something we never would be able to
do” in the U.S., he added. Italy also imposed more stringent
travel restrictions early Sunday.
“I don’t imagine that the degree of the draconian nature of
what the Chinese did would ever be either feasible, applicable,
doable or whatever you want to call it in the United States,”
Fauci said in an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” that will be
broadcast on Sunday, according to a partial transcript provided
by the network.
Read more on the coronavirus here.
“Even though there are a lot of things that have unintended
negative consequences of that, I think it did help dampen what
would have been” an even worse outbreak, Fauci said of China on
NBC. “Wuhan was terrible. But I think they prevented a broader
spread.”
The spread of the highly infectious virus continues to
advance across the globe. As of Sunday, about half of the
world’s countries have reported cases of Covid-19, according to
the World Health Organization. The global death count outside of
China is approaching 500.
Italy, Europe’s most hard-hit nation, said it’s restricting
movement and activity for a quarter of its population in the
region around the financial capital of Milan.
Fauci said a vaccine deployable against Covid-19 will not
be available “for at least a year to a year and a half.”

Tough Two Months

Gottlieb, who departed as Trump’s FDA commissioner in
April, said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that the U.S. is
“past the point of containment and broad mitigation strategies.”

“The next few weeks will change the complexion in this
country,”said Gottlieb, who’s now a special partner at New
Enterprise Associates, a venture capital firm that invests in
the health-care and biotech sectors. “We’ll get through this,
but it’s going to be a hard period. We’re looking at two months,
probably, of difficulty.”

Gottlieb said he was still in talks with people in the
Trump administration, recommending that “a very big federal
bailout package” for businesses, individuals, cities and states
be done sooner rather than later.
 
Let me take a wild guess, the statement "we're looking at two months, probably, of difficulty" is based on the R0 and SI of a typical influenza virus, right? Sars-cov2 is not influenza. Whilst it appears to have a pretty high R0 and spreads via fomite and aerosol as well as droplet, it also has a pretty slow SI, which means it moves from generation of infection fairly slowly. I don't think 2 months is right, I think it will be much longer (in my opinion) and will result in much greater population exposure totals as well.
 
What do we think is going on in Italy? That was a massive jump in deaths yesterday - increase of 133 deaths, to a total of 366. Whilst I agree that CFR measures are highly variable and therefore of limited value, (e.g. that mild infections in the community may be missed unless extensive contact tracing has been done with testing - but think they have been good on this? or not?) that gives them a CFR of 5%. Just a few days ago it was tracking at slightly under 4%. Italy has a fairly good healthcare system. Boris has also called an emergency COBRA meeting more or less in the middle of the night, ostensibly because UK has had 3rd death. Has there been a recent sequence analysis of the cases in N italy? I am just wondering if something is 'up'.
 
Completely agree with you. I think the modelling has used too many variables as if this were flu, and has not taken sufficient account of the different dynamics of COVID, but then again, I am not properly qualified in this area to judge.
 
Vibrant62 said:
What do we think is going on in Italy? That was a massive jump in deaths yesterday - increase of 133 deaths, to a total of 366. Whilst I agree that CFR measures are highly variable and therefore of limited value, (e.g. that mild infections in the community may be missed unless extensive contact tracing has been done with testing - but think they have been good on this? or not?) that gives them a CFR of 5%. Just a few days ago it was tracking at slightly under 4%. Italy has a fairly good healthcare system. Boris has also called an emergency COBRA meeting more or less in the middle of the night, ostensibly because UK has had 3rd death. Has there been a recent sequence analysis of the cases in N italy? I am just wondering if something is 'up'.
Click to expand...

And why no deaths in Germany - what is the reason for that?

Article below says Italy has an aging population - so does Germany have a much younger one?
https://www.thelocal.it/20200305/ana...eaths-in-italy


ETA: Germany doesn't seem to differ much in median age from Italy.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...edian_age_of_population,_2008-18_(years)_.png
 
to Fauci : don't talk about the Chinese measures in Wuhan. USA has no Wuhan yet. Talk about the Chinese measures to get the spread outside
of Wuhan under control. Masks, fever screening, extended holidays, and in some few cities in Zhejiang reduced shopping 1/family/2days .
Traffic reduction in some cities (Beijing, buses; ... mainly to protect from Wuhan) . Extensive contact-tracing, telemedicine ,
fever-reporting, home isolation . What else ?
 
Emily, just luck. Also German cases are more recent, consider the delay to death. 5 days until confirmation, 4 days until
death in Italy so far , I read
 
It's been a long while since I've posted anything and I hope this is the right spot for this. Regarding vaccine trials: My daughter is living in London and one of her friends will be participating in this human vaccine trial, mostly because it looks to pay fairly well. Participants will be infected with a milder strain of the coronavirus, quarantined for 14 days then released back into the general population. She will be sure to keep me updated. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...don-pay-volunteers-3-500-develop-vaccine.html
 
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