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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

In regards to being tested, I suspect many are reluctant to go to an ER full of likely contagious people to be tested unless they were in dire condition. They should make testing available without having to wait for hours in an ER.
 
Translation Google

Dr. Li Wenliang
How many times do you want to let Dr. Li Wenliang die! ?
At 9:30 on February 6, the Global Times reported that Dr. Li Wenliang passed away.
On February 6, at 23:56, the rumors were rescued collectively.
On February 7, 01:00 Li Wenliang's colleague Zhang Chun Weibo once again announced that Dr. Li Wenliang had gone to heaven.
On February 7, at 01:15, Zhang Chun's Weibo deleted "Dr. Li Wenliang's Go to Heaven".
What else can the people say? .

https://pincong.rocks/question/17526
 
A laudable goal Zac but not practical at the epicenter. They are trying, the two new hospitals will give a point for nCoV symptoms to go to so keeping them away from everyone else. Sports stadia would be a good place to set up testing, abundant seating allows for wide spacing of patients queuing for tests. They have good ventilation and sun light (UV) also the seats can be sprayed down with disinfectant. Its not exactly as if they are needed for anything else at the moment.
 
I was wondering if anyone here could answer a question about tracking and monitoring treatments both successful ones and failures? I have seen several articles and posts over the past few weeks about people being treated with anti-viral medicines as well as oxygen treatment, etc. It seems some appear to have been successful and I imagine some not so helpful. Any idea if there is a global group either in WHO or another organization that is tracking this activity so they can help maybe find an interim solution until a vaccine can be developed? I know there is a bunch of activity going on, I would just hate to see missed opportunities of solutions or treatments because the focus is too near or far sighted.
 
WHO have set up an online anonymized patient database to collect and analyse patient data. It will not be open to the public but will help facilitate a best practice treatment regime and estimate therapeutics much more quickly.
 
Is Google having problems? Last new article I was able to access was 39 minutes ago...It's on again. There was an hour-long glitch,
 
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Homeland Security has a Pandemic Readiness page. I don't know if it is new or not. Somewhat interesting, the image of the washing hands named "wash%20hands_pandemic_hero.jpg" is in a folder named "2019-09.
I'm glad it lists two weeks. However, I wish it had a basic supplies list (bleach, soap..etc.)
They are running Google Analytics - so they'll (as will Google) be able to see the traffic hitting the page.
https://www.ready.gov/pandemic
 
Based on the Chinese numbers, this is a hopeful trend.
nCoV.webp
 
I've been having slowness all over the place on and off for the last couple of days.

Me too. Re your graph while the trend is hopeful have you allowed for the fact there is a time lag between patients arriving on the same day being dead or cured, the later requiring an extend virus free period making them a week of to later?
 
Me too. Re your graph while the trend is hopeful have you allowed for the fact there is a time lag between patients arriving on the same day being dead or cured, the later requiring an extend virus free period making them a week of to later?

No, but I'm aware that that lag exists. It is likely the main driver of the dropping %. I hope at some point that the Chinese are able to publish data on length of stay, proportion of these confirmed cases that are mild vs severe etc. I think that as time goes on, we can determine a cfr for hospitalized cases.
 
I hope that your graph is true and that less people are dying. However, I have three big concerns. One is the reports that they have been triaging the use of test kits. The ones they know will die/are dead, and the ones they know will live are not being tested as often as the ones that medical treatment might save. Secondly, the more severe cases could be more likely to stay in the hospital longer than the ones that recover. Thirdly, the Chinese have ramped up the number of beds available by impressive numbers and they might just be hospitalizing cases that they wouldn't have before. We are a long way from having clean data to work with so all we can hope is that the trend of less deaths holds true once all the facts are known.
 
In 2009, one of the ways we determined the CFR of H1N1 was by looking at fixed populations like schools, prisons, etc., where the total number of people exposed was known. The cruise ship in Japan is likely to do that for us now.

There are 3700 people on board, with at least 61 confirmed cases so far. If this virus has a 3-4% CFR, then multiple deaths are expected, perhaps dozens if this virus has the attack rate of a pandemic flu. If this virus has a CFR closer to seasonal flu, anything more than one death would be unlikely, even if most of the ship gets infected. I'd think we'll know a lot more from watching this in the next two weeks.
 
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In 2009, one of the ways we determined the CFR of H1N1 was by looking at fixed populations like schools, prisons, etc., where the total number of people exposed was known. The cruise ship in Japan is likely to do that for us now.

There are 3700 people on board, with at least 61 confirmed cases so far. If this virus has a 3-4% CFR, then multiple deaths are expected, perhaps dozens if this virus has the attack rate of a pandemic flu. If this virus has a CFR closer to seasonal flu, anything more than one death would be unlikely, even if most of the ship gets infected. I'd think we'll know a lot more from watching this in the next two weeks.

We wont get a true attack rate as the remaining passengers are all in isolation now... but will be interesting to see how many cases develop over the coming week/s. And it will give us some indications of true CFR etc, however unfortunate for the passengers.
 
I’m seeing more posts..etc downplaying the risk of navigating spreading due to better hygiene in the US or western countries in general. The thought being it will be limited to localized outbreaks and not a full blown emergency like China.

I’d be curious to hearing thoughts on this from others here.
 
Interesting and informative videos from Dr. John Campbell regarding nCov. Several videos, this one in particular states that England's Chief Medical Advisor has changed its guidance for self-isolation and to call for advice if an individual has "Cough or Fever or Shortness of Breath" and has traveled from:
  • Mainland China
  • Thailand
  • Japan
  • Republic of Korea
  • Hong Kong
  • Taiwan
  • Singapore
  • Malaysia
  • Macau
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaIjwvjBwqg

I've only been able to watch a couple of his videos, but seems they tend to discuss about transmission..etc. and he breaks down specific cases and talks thru them.
 
I’m seeing more posts..etc downplaying the risk of navigating spreading due to better hygiene in the US or western countries in general. The thought being it will be limited to localized outbreaks and not a full blown emergency like China.

I’d be curious to hearing thoughts on this from others here.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6905e1.htm?s_cid=mm6905e1_w

This is from the CDC today. Here's an excerpt:

The 2019-nCoV has impacted multiple countries, caused severe illness, and sustained person-to-person transmission making it a concerning and serious public health threat. It is unclear how this virus will impact the U.S. over time. For the general population, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at the current time, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV is considered low. CDC, multiple other federal agencies, state and local health departments, and other partners are implementing aggressive measures to slow U.S. transmission of 2019-nCoV (4,5). These measures require the identification of cases and contacts in the United States and the effective management of the estimated 14,000 travelers arriving from mainland China to the United States each day (3). These measures are being implemented based on the assumption that there will be more U.S. 2019-nCoV cases occurring with potential chains of transmission, with the understanding that these measures might not prevent the eventual establishment of ongoing, widespread transmission of the virus in the United States.


To me, those words are akin to "it's coming and it's not our fault, and disregard everything we said before Wednesday about us having things under control."
 
Source: https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/20/2/5/n11845444.htm/amp?__twitter_impression=true

[Exclusive] Daily cremation of about 341 new crown dead in the two halls of Hubei
Updated: February 08, 2020 2:40 AM


The epidemic of new crown pneumonia spread, the death toll increased sharply, Wuhan funeral home operates 24 hours. schematic diagram. (HECTOR RETAMAL / AFP via Getty Images)

[The Epoch Times, February 07, 2020] (The Epoch Times reporter Wang Youfa and He Jian interviewed and reported) Wuhan New Crown Pneumonia has spread rapidly throughout the country and other countries. Due to the CCP's concealment and blockade of the epidemic, official statistics cannot reflect the actual situation. The latest Epoch Times survey found that on February 3, the number of crested new crown disease victims in several funeral homes in Hubei exceeded the total number of pneumonia deaths in Wuhan as of that day as announced by the Chinese authorities.

The Epoch Times interviewed the executives of several funeral homes in Hubei through unannounced visits, and learned that the actual daily cremation volume of two of them was 4-5 times the usual cremation volume. To protect the interviewees, this article uses a pseudonym temporarily.

A funeral parlour in Hubei burned 116 new crown pneumonia victims a day

You Hu of a funeral home in Hubei revealed to the investigator: "I am about to collapse, and we are under great pressure now." "The current transportation and cremation capacity are usually four to five escorts." . "

He said that the staff of the funeral home have not rested from years ago to now, "It is very happy to be able to sleep for two or three hours a day here."

"I received 127 corpses yesterday, and burned 116. Among them, 8 were confirmed on the death certificate (new coronary pneumonia) and 48 were suspected."

This funeral home outside Hankou is "busy to collapse". What about the Hankou funeral home, which is responsible for the more severe Hankou area?

You Hu said, "I passed through the Hankou Funeral Parlour. Its business volume is greater than mine, and its pressure is greater than mine."

You Hu said, "The funeral home began to be cremated at 6 in the morning, and it will not work until noon; the current situation is that the remains were taken over and immediately cremated." You Hu said that his funeral home had 18 cremators, but Only 11 cremator furnaces were operational, and one furnace required fifty minutes to burn one body.

From this we can see that Youhu's funeral home can currently burn up to 316 remains per day (Note: 11X24hrX (60mins / 50mins) = 316).

In reality, on the eve of the first wave of deaths in New Coronary Pneumonia, taking February 3 as an example, the funeral parlour picked up 127 remains and burned 116 on the same day. Judging from the current policy of the Communist Party of China's new crown disease patient's remains to be cremated immediately, the funeral home must give priority to the burning of the new crown disease patient's body; other deceased's bodies may not be burned on the same day due to funeral culture, rituals, etc. Based on this, it can be inferred that the 116 dead were basically all died of neo-coronary pneumonia, or at least suspected to have died of the disease. In other words, more than 90% (116/127) of the remains of this funeral parlour were dead of neo-crown disease.

Hankou funeral home burns at least 225 new crown pneumonia victims a day

At the moment when the death peak of the new crown virus hits, how many patient remains are burned every day in the Hankou funeral home?

The website of Hankou Funeral Home states that it is equipped with 30 high-end cremator furnaces. However, the Epoch Times investigators learned that there were currently 20 cremator furnaces operating in Hankou Funeral Center 24 hours a day. Based on the cremation efficiency of the funeral home revealed by You Hu, the Hankou funeral home can currently burn up to 576 (20X24X1.2 = 576) remains per day.

Although You Hu's words confirmed the rumors that the funeral home was cremated around the clock, he disclosed that "the cremation of the remains, the backlog is not too serious", "mainly because we did not respond to the remains in a timely manner." In other words, including the funeral parlour and Hankou funeral parlour, the biggest bottlenecks that currently restrict their ability to deal with remains, the first is transportation capacity, and the second is insufficient staff, that is, employees are too tired to work overtime and cannot continue.

You Hu said that there are now 9 funeral vehicles in his funeral parlor. "In the past, one car pulled one person, and now pulls at least two. Then, remove the chair on the CMB car that is not a funeral vehicle. Pull seven or eight at a time." .

As for the transportation capacity (actual cremation volume) of Hankou funeral homes, combined with land media reports and announcements from the Hubei Civil Affairs Department, it is known that Hankou funeral homes previously had nine funeral vehicles. On January 20, the Wuhan Civil Affairs Bureau stipulated that Hankou funeral homes should receive the remains of patients with New Coronavirus pneumonia, and other funeral homes should handle ordinary remains. However, around January 22, the number of deaths from patients with new coronary pneumonia began to increase, and the civil affairs department was forced to let more funeral homes intervene in the treatment of patients' remains. Hankou Funeral Home, which burned the remains of patients with new crown disease, has been increased. According to the announcement of Hubei Civil Affairs Department, the funeral car in Hankou Funeral Home has increased to 16 since then.

Based on the capacity of 9 funeral vehicles disclosed by You Hu and 127 corpses received in one day, the number of corpses that can be transported by 16 vehicles per day is about 225 in Hankou. According to Wuhan's current policy, The remains can only be deceased in patients with new coronary pneumonia.

From this we can see that the Hankou Funeral Parlour currently can burn up to 576 corpses per day, but due to transportation constraints, it currently burns about 225 corpses of new crown patients each day.

The number of cremation in a single day at several funeral homes exceeded the total number of deaths claimed by the CCP

According to the information disclosed by You Hu, there are 8 municipal funeral homes in Wuhan, of which Wuchang Funeral Home handles the remains of new crown patients in 8 of the first three batches of 23 designated hospitals in Wuhan. It is mainly responsible for Wuchang District and Hanyang District. ; Hankou Funeral Parlour undertakes another 8 hospitals, mainly responsible for Jiang'an, Jianghan, Tongkou and Dongxihu Districts; Qingshan Funeral Parlour is responsible for 2 hospitals in Qingshan District; the remaining 5 hospitals are each by Caidian, Jiangxia, Huangpi, Xinzhou District Funeral Parlour Be responsible for. According to the public information of the funeral industry, there are 10 cremation furnaces in the funeral home in Caidian District and 7 cremation furnaces in the funeral home in Huanghua District.

Caption: As of February 4th, the number of newly designated hospitals for coronal pneumonia in Wuhan has been expanded to 29 (including the Lei Shenshan Hospital delivered on February 6th). The picture shows the use of hospital beds in 28 designated hospitals in Wuhan on February 3. (Network screenshot)

Taking the funeral parlour in Xinzhou District as an example, the Epoch Times investigator also interviewed the executives of the funeral parlour in Xinzhou District. The other party said that “there is a lot of pressure now, and employees are working overtime continuously and are tired. About 30 remains were processed. "

Not to mention here whether 30 remains a day will make 9 cremation furnaces in the funeral parlour in Xinzhou District operate for 24 hours. Even with this calculation, five funeral homes such as Qingshan and Xinzhou now process only 30 remains per day, of which about 9 become new crown patients. These five funeral homes in Wuhan have burned at least 135 new crown patients each day.

Adding to the 116 funeral homes where You Hu is located and 225 patient remains of Hankou funeral homes, at least 3 of the funeral crematoriums of these funeral homes each day burned at least 476 new crown disease patients. The Chinese Communist Party Health Committee stated that as of 24:00 on February 3, 425 people with new type of coronary pneumonia nationwide died.

In other words, at the beginning of the first outbreak of deaths of infected patients, the number of corpses cremated by new crown pneumonia every day in these funeral homes in Hubei has surpassed the death of new crown patients in the more than one month announced by the CCP total people. This does not include the number of remains of new crown patients who are forced to park in hospitals, residents' homes, or even on the streets, due to the capacity of funeral parlours.

Dark secret hidden by death certificate

Epoch Times found in the investigation that among the 127 remains received by You Hu on February 3, only 8 had confirmed deaths of new crown pneumonia, and only 48 had suspected deaths of new crowns. However, the number of the remaining 71 deceased is obviously far more than the normal number of corpses in the funeral home.

And the news revealed by Xinzhou Funeral Home is even more bizarre. Of the 22 remains received on February 3, only 3 were diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia.

What's the secret behind this?

A document from the government of Yangxin County, Hubei Province, reveals the feline in it.

On January 29, the Yangxin County Government issued the “Notice on Cooperating with Civil Affairs Departments in Properly Handling New Patients with New Pneumonia Deaths”, which explicitly mentioned that confirmed and suspected deaths need to be cremated immediately, and died in non-medical institutions and the cause of death If it cannot be determined, the community-assisted health station will issue a death certificate.

Caption: On January 29, the government of Yangxin County, Hubei Province issued the "Notice on Cooperating with Civil Affairs Departments in Properly Disposing of Patients with New Pneumonia Deaths". (Network screenshot)

According to the Communist Party's regulations, deaths in medical units shall be issued by the medical institution; if the death is normal but the death certificate cannot be obtained by the hospital, the death certificate shall be issued by the neighborhood committee or health station.

It can be seen that of the 127 remains received by You Hu's funeral parlour on February 3, eight death certificates of confirmed new coronary pneumonia and 48 death certificates of suspected new coronary pneumonia were received by the deceased from the hospital before his death. Confirmed or suspected diagnosis.

However, more severe patients have not been tested by reagents to confirm the diagnosis, or the hospital is reluctant to issue a death certificate suspected of new coronary pneumonia. Both the mainland and Hong Kong media have previously reported that the death certificate of patients with new crown pneumonia did not indicate that the cause of death was the new crown or suspected new crown, but other reasons such as "severe pneumonia" and "respiratory failure".

That is to say, the vast majority of Chinese people who have been killed by new crown pneumonia cannot get a true death certificate, but only receive a death certificate issued by a community health station for cremation.

Behind this, there is hidden darkness and secrets that the cremator can't burn.

The Epoch Times and other media at home and abroad have previously reported that the vast majority of Wuhan residents who are suspected of contracting the new crown virus and are seriously ill cannot wait for the detection reagents to confirm the diagnosis. Moreover, because the hospital lacks medical resources such as beds, these patients can only suffer at home and helplessly let the virus spread to their loved ones and more victims in the society, many of whom die silently.

In this special investigation of the funeral home in Hubei, both You Hu and Xinzhou funeral home confirmed to the investigators that most of the remains were not taken from the hospital but directly from the deceased's home.

You Hu said, "I made a statistic a few days ago, 38% were received by the hospital, and 61% died at home." "So the medical condition is very bad. "" If you think about it, more than 60% died at home. "

"Don't believe those dog officials," You Hu said angrily, "Go on like this. I can't imagine it!"

Responsible editor: 张宪义 #
Visit Epoch Times website
 
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